Stock Analysis on Net

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) 

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 113.34% per annum.
  • MSFT price at the close of July 31, 2025 was $533.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 56.77% per annum.
  • MSFT price at the close of July 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $12.81 (2.46%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MSFT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 2, 2025
End date: July 21, 2025

a = 2.4793

b = 0.0021

s = 0.0082

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 113.34%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0082) – 1
= 3.34%

May 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,733 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4793 + 0.0021 × 1,733 + 2 × 0.0082)
= Exp(6.0933)
= $442.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,733 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4793 + 0.0021 × 1,733 – 2 × 0.0082)
= Exp(6.0605)
= $428.60

July 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4793 + 0.0021 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0082)
= Exp(6.2594)
= $522.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4793 + 0.0021 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0082)
= Exp(6.2266)
= $506.03

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 113.34% per annum.
  • MSFT price at the close of July 31, 2025 was $533.50 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 24, 2025
End date: July 30, 2025

a = 3.9980

b = 0.0012

s = 0.0057

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 56.77%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0057) – 1
= 2.31%

June 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9980 + 0.0012 × 1,786 + 2 × 0.0057)
= Exp(6.2096)
= $497.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9980 + 0.0012 × 1,786 – 2 × 0.0057)
= Exp(6.1868)
= $486.27

July 30, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9980 + 0.0012 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0057)
= Exp(6.2539)
= $520.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9980 + 0.0012 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0057)
= Exp(6.2311)
= $508.32

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 56.77% per annum.
  • MSFT price at the close of July 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $12.81 (2.46%).
Stock Price Trends
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