Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 740.68% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of July 24, 2026 was $183.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 171.53% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of July 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRWD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 20, 2026
End date: July 22, 2026
a = 2.9264
b = 0.0058
s = 0.0944
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0058) – 1
= 740.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0944) – 1
= 45.87%
February 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y180)
= Exp(a + b × X180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 262 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9264 + 0.0058 × 262 + 2 × 0.0944)
= Exp(4.6434)
= $103.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y180)
= Exp(a + b × X180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 262 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9264 + 0.0058 × 262 – 2 × 0.0944)
= Exp(4.2659)
= $71.23
July 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9264 + 0.0058 × 414 + 2 × 0.0944)
= Exp(5.5301)
= $252.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9264 + 0.0058 × 414 – 2 × 0.0944)
= Exp(5.1525)
= $172.87
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 740.68% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of July 24, 2026 was $183.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 20, 2026
End date: July 24, 2026
a = 4.1447
b = 0.0027
s = 0.0568
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 171.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0568) – 1
= 25.49%
May 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y242)
= Exp(a + b × X242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 351 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1447 + 0.0027 × 351 + 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(5.2188)
= $184.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y242)
= Exp(a + b × X242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 351 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1447 + 0.0027 × 351 – 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(4.9918)
= $147.20
July 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y286)
= Exp(a + b × X286 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 416 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1447 + 0.0027 × 416 + 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(5.3967)
= $220.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y286)
= Exp(a + b × X286 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 416 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1447 + 0.0027 × 416 – 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(5.1697)
= $175.86
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 171.53% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of July 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.