Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 125.83% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of June 4, 2026 was $179.77 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $159.86 (47.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 28.85% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of June 4, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $10.33 (6.10%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRWD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 2, 2022
End date: July 18, 2024
a = 2.0120
b = 0.0022
s = 0.1264
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 125.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1264) – 1
= 65.82%
November 2, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y356)
= Exp(a + b × X356 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 513 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0120 + 0.0022 × 513 + 2 × 0.1264)
= Exp(3.4098)
= $30.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y356)
= Exp(a + b × X356 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 513 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0120 + 0.0022 × 513 – 2 × 0.1264)
= Exp(2.9041)
= $18.25
July 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y783)
= Exp(a + b × X783 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,137 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0120 + 0.0022 × 1,137 + 2 × 0.1264)
= Exp(4.8025)
= $121.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y783)
= Exp(a + b × X783 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,137 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0120 + 0.0022 × 1,137 – 2 × 0.1264)
= Exp(4.2968)
= $73.46
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 125.83% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of June 4, 2026 was $179.77 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $159.86 (47.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 29, 2023
End date: May 19, 2026
a = 3.5977
b = 0.0007
s = 0.1345
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1345) – 1
= 71.26%
November 29, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y625)
= Exp(a + b × X625 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 905 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5977 + 0.0007 × 905 + 2 × 0.1345)
= Exp(4.4951)
= $89.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y625)
= Exp(a + b × X625 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 905 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5977 + 0.0007 × 905 – 2 × 0.1345)
= Exp(3.9571)
= $52.30
May 19, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5977 + 0.0007 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.1345)
= Exp(5.1214)
= $167.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5977 + 0.0007 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.1345)
= Exp(4.5834)
= $97.85
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 28.85% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of June 4, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $10.33 (6.10%).