Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.31% per annum.
- DDOG price at the close of August 5, 2026 was $283.17 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,022.37% per annum.
- DDOG price at the close of August 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DDOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 7, 2022
End date: February 14, 2025
a = 3.9106
b = 0.0008
s = 0.1154
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 36.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1154) – 1
= 58.66%
October 7, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9106 + 0.0008 × 427 + 2 × 0.1154)
= Exp(4.5037)
= $90.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9106 + 0.0008 × 427 – 2 × 0.1154)
= Exp(4.0421)
= $56.95
February 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y885)
= Exp(a + b × X885 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,288 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9106 + 0.0008 × 1,288 + 2 × 0.1154)
= Exp(5.2343)
= $187.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y885)
= Exp(a + b × X885 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,288 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9106 + 0.0008 × 1,288 – 2 × 0.1154)
= Exp(4.7727)
= $118.24
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.31% per annum.
- DDOG price at the close of August 5, 2026 was $283.17 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 20, 2026
End date: August 5, 2026
a = -6.3698
b = 0.0066
s = 0.1304
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0066) – 1
= 1,022.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1304) – 1
= 68.50%
February 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,659 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.3698 + 0.0066 × 1,659 + 2 × 0.1304)
= Exp(4.8815)
= $131.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,659 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.3698 + 0.0066 × 1,659 – 2 × 0.1304)
= Exp(4.3597)
= $78.23
August 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.3698 + 0.0066 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1304)
= Exp(5.9812)
= $395.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.3698 + 0.0066 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1304)
= Exp(5.4594)
= $234.96
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,022.37% per annum.
- DDOG price at the close of August 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.