Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.50% per annum.
- DDOG price at the close of October 9, 2026 was $293.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 474.89% per annum.
- DDOG price at the close of October 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DDOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 10, 2022
End date: February 13, 2025
a = 3.9633
b = 0.0009
s = 0.1152
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 36.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1152) – 1
= 58.50%
October 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y251)
= Exp(a + b × X251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 364 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9633 + 0.0009 × 364 + 2 × 0.1152)
= Exp(4.5039)
= $90.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y251)
= Exp(a + b × X251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 364 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9633 + 0.0009 × 364 – 2 × 0.1152)
= Exp(4.0433)
= $57.02
February 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y839)
= Exp(a + b × X839 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9633 + 0.0009 × 1,221 + 2 × 0.1152)
= Exp(5.2346)
= $187.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y839)
= Exp(a + b × X839 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9633 + 0.0009 × 1,221 – 2 × 0.1152)
= Exp(4.7740)
= $118.39
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.50% per annum.
- DDOG price at the close of October 9, 2026 was $293.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 9, 2026
End date: August 18, 2026
a = -2.8388
b = 0.0048
s = 0.1574
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0048) – 1
= 474.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1574) – 1
= 87.70%
January 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,551 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.8388 + 0.0048 × 1,551 + 2 × 0.1574)
= Exp(4.9082)
= $135.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,551 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.8388 + 0.0048 × 1,551 – 2 × 0.1574)
= Exp(4.2785)
= $72.13
August 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.8388 + 0.0048 × 1,772 + 2 × 0.1574)
= Exp(5.9672)
= $390.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.8388 + 0.0048 × 1,772 – 2 × 0.1574)
= Exp(5.3375)
= $207.98
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 474.89% per annum.
- DDOG price at the close of October 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.