Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.50% per annum.
- DDOG price at the close of November 4, 2026 was $188.72 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $13.67 (6.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 268.44% per annum.
- DDOG price at the close of November 4, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $40.72 (17.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DDOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 10, 2022
End date: February 13, 2025
a = 3.9846
b = 0.0009
s = 0.1152
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 36.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1152) – 1
= 58.50%
October 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y232)
= Exp(a + b × X232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 339 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9846 + 0.0009 × 339 + 2 × 0.1152)
= Exp(4.5039)
= $90.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y232)
= Exp(a + b × X232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 339 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9846 + 0.0009 × 339 – 2 × 0.1152)
= Exp(4.0433)
= $57.02
February 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y820)
= Exp(a + b × X820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9846 + 0.0009 × 1,196 + 2 × 0.1152)
= Exp(5.2346)
= $187.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y820)
= Exp(a + b × X820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9846 + 0.0009 × 1,196 – 2 × 0.1152)
= Exp(4.7740)
= $118.39
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.50% per annum.
- DDOG price at the close of November 4, 2026 was $188.72 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $13.67 (6.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 8, 2026
End date: October 29, 2026
a = -0.7553
b = 0.0036
s = 0.1648
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0036) – 1
= 268.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1648) – 1
= 93.31%
January 8, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,046)
= Exp(a + b × X1,046 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,525 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7553 + 0.0036 × 1,525 + 2 × 0.1648)
= Exp(5.0229)
= $151.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,046)
= Exp(a + b × X1,046 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,525 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7553 + 0.0036 × 1,525 – 2 × 0.1648)
= Exp(4.3638)
= $78.55
October 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7553 + 0.0036 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.1648)
= Exp(6.0733)
= $434.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7553 + 0.0036 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.1648)
= Exp(5.4142)
= $224.58
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 268.44% per annum.
- DDOG price at the close of November 4, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $40.72 (17.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.