Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 764.43% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of September 18, 2026 was $363.58 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $34.98 (8.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 36.46% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of September 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PANW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 17, 2026
End date: August 21, 2026
a = -4.6139
b = 0.0059
s = 0.0884
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0059) – 1
= 764.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0884) – 1
= 42.41%
February 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,106)
= Exp(a + b × X1,106 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,611 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.6139 + 0.0059 × 1,611 + 2 × 0.0884)
= Exp(5.0827)
= $161.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,106)
= Exp(a + b × X1,106 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,611 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.6139 + 0.0059 × 1,611 – 2 × 0.0884)
= Exp(4.7292)
= $113.20
August 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.6139 + 0.0059 × 1,796 + 2 × 0.0884)
= Exp(6.1760)
= $481.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.6139 + 0.0059 × 1,796 – 2 × 0.0884)
= Exp(5.8224)
= $337.78
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 764.43% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of September 18, 2026 was $363.58 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $34.98 (8.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 29, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 4.3402
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0565
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 36.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0565) – 1
= 25.37%
June 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3402 + 0.0009 × 1,743 + 2 × 0.0565)
= Exp(5.9378)
= $379.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3402 + 0.0009 × 1,743 – 2 × 0.0565)
= Exp(5.7118)
= $302.41
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3402 + 0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0565)
= Exp(6.0068)
= $406.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3402 + 0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0565)
= Exp(5.7808)
= $324.01
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 36.46% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of September 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.