Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.90% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of June 13, 2025 was $196.27 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.80 (2.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 174.28% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of June 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PANW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 9, 2024
End date: May 1, 2025
a = 6.0160
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0521
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0521) – 1
= 23.17%
October 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,577 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0160 + -0.0005 × 1,577 + 2 × 0.0521)
= Exp(5.3719)
= $215.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,577 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0160 + -0.0005 × 1,577 – 2 × 0.0521)
= Exp(5.1635)
= $174.78
May 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0160 + -0.0005 × 1,781 + 2 × 0.0521)
= Exp(5.2751)
= $195.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0160 + -0.0005 × 1,781 – 2 × 0.0521)
= Exp(5.0667)
= $158.65
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.90% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of June 13, 2025 was $196.27 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.80 (2.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 31, 2025
End date: June 13, 2025
a = 0.2638
b = 0.0028
s = 0.0386
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 174.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0386) – 1
= 16.68%
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2638 + 0.0028 × 1,750 + 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.1786)
= $177.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2638 + 0.0028 × 1,750 – 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.0243)
= $152.07
June 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2638 + 0.0028 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.3831)
= $217.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2638 + 0.0028 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.2289)
= $186.58
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 174.28% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of June 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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