Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 451.52% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of November 4, 2026 was $348.04 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $56.70 (14.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 43.94% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of November 4, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PANW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2026
End date: October 13, 2026
a = -2.3146
b = 0.0047
s = 0.1099
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0047) – 1
= 451.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1099) – 1
= 55.20%
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,063)
= Exp(a + b × X1,063 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,551 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3146 + 0.0047 × 1,551 + 2 × 0.1099)
= Exp(5.1610)
= $174.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,063)
= Exp(a + b × X1,063 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,551 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3146 + 0.0047 × 1,551 – 2 × 0.1099)
= Exp(4.7214)
= $112.33
October 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3146 + 0.0047 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.1099)
= Exp(6.3398)
= $566.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.3146 + 0.0047 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.1099)
= Exp(5.9003)
= $365.16
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 451.52% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of November 4, 2026 was $348.04 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $56.70 (14.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 29, 2026
End date: November 4, 2026
a = 4.1313
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0614
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 43.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0614) – 1
= 27.83%
June 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,697 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1313 + 0.0010 × 1,697 + 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(5.9477)
= $382.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,697 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1313 + 0.0010 × 1,697 – 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(5.7022)
= $299.51
November 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1313 + 0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(6.0754)
= $435.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1313 + 0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(5.8299)
= $340.32
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 43.94% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of November 4, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.