Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 474.64% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of October 7, 2026 was $405.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 73.76% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of October 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PANW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 5, 2026
End date: October 7, 2026
a = -2.6367
b = 0.0048
s = 0.1087
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0048) – 1
= 474.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1087) – 1
= 54.44%
February 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6367 + 0.0048 × 1,581 + 2 × 0.1087)
= Exp(5.1546)
= $173.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6367 + 0.0048 × 1,581 – 2 × 0.1087)
= Exp(4.7199)
= $112.16
October 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6367 + 0.0048 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1087)
= Exp(6.3235)
= $557.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6367 + 0.0048 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1087)
= Exp(5.8888)
= $360.99
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 474.64% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of October 7, 2026 was $405.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 29, 2026
End date: October 7, 2026
a = 3.1935
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0562
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 73.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0562) – 1
= 25.22%
June 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,725 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1935 + 0.0015 × 1,725 + 2 × 0.0562)
= Exp(5.9172)
= $371.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,725 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1935 + 0.0015 × 1,725 – 2 × 0.0562)
= Exp(5.6923)
= $296.58
October 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1935 + 0.0015 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0562)
= Exp(6.0686)
= $432.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1935 + 0.0015 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0562)
= Exp(5.8437)
= $345.05
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 73.76% per annum.
- PANW price at the close of October 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.