Stock Analysis on Net

Salesforce Inc. (NYSE:CRM)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.42% per annum.
  • CRM price at the close of May 30, 2025 was $265.37 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $20.82 (7.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 49.92% per annum.
  • CRM price at the close of May 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: March 3, 2025

a = 4.4048

b = 0.0008

s = 0.1132

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.42%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1132) – 1
= 57.25%

May 5, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y487)
= Exp(a + b × X487 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 703 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4048 + 0.0008 × 703 + 2 × 0.1132)
= Exp(5.2009)
= $181.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y487)
= Exp(a + b × X487 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 703 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4048 + 0.0008 × 703 – 2 × 0.1132)
= Exp(4.7482)
= $115.38

March 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4048 + 0.0008 × 1,736 + 2 × 0.1132)
= Exp(6.0380)
= $419.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4048 + 0.0008 × 1,736 – 2 × 0.1132)
= Exp(5.5853)
= $266.49

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.42% per annum.
  • CRM price at the close of May 30, 2025 was $265.37 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $20.82 (7.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 11, 2024
End date: May 9, 2025

a = 8.9708

b = -0.0019

s = 0.0587

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -49.92%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0587) – 1
= 26.44%

November 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9708 + -0.0019 × 1,624 + 2 × 0.0587)
= Exp(6.0115)
= $408.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9708 + -0.0019 × 1,624 – 2 × 0.0587)
= Exp(5.7769)
= $322.76

May 9, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9708 + -0.0019 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0587)
= Exp(5.6724)
= $290.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9708 + -0.0019 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0587)
= Exp(5.4378)
= $229.94

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 49.92% per annum.
  • CRM price at the close of May 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
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