Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 99.48% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of June 16, 2026 was $161.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.48% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of June 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 2, 2026
End date: June 16, 2026
a = 10.8405
b = -0.0144
s = 0.0192
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0144) – 1
= -99.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0192) – 1
= 7.97%
June 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y265)
= Exp(a + b × X265 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 386 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8405 + -0.0144 × 386 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(5.3094)
= $202.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y265)
= Exp(a + b × X265 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 386 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8405 + -0.0144 × 386 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(5.2328)
= $187.31
June 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y275)
= Exp(a + b × X275 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 400 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8405 + -0.0144 × 400 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(5.1074)
= $165.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y275)
= Exp(a + b × X275 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 400 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8405 + -0.0144 × 400 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(5.0308)
= $153.05
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 99.48% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of June 16, 2026 was $161.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 2, 2026
End date: June 16, 2026
a = 10.8405
b = -0.0144
s = 0.0192
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0144) – 1
= -99.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0192) – 1
= 7.97%
June 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y265)
= Exp(a + b × X265 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 386 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8405 + -0.0144 × 386 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(5.3094)
= $202.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y265)
= Exp(a + b × X265 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 386 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8405 + -0.0144 × 386 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(5.2328)
= $187.31
June 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y275)
= Exp(a + b × X275 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 400 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8405 + -0.0144 × 400 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(5.1074)
= $165.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y275)
= Exp(a + b × X275 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 400 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8405 + -0.0144 × 400 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(5.0308)
= $153.05
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.48% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of June 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.