Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.42% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of May 30, 2025 was $265.37 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $20.82 (7.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 49.92% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of May 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: March 3, 2025
a = 4.4048
b = 0.0008
s = 0.1132
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1132) – 1
= 57.25%
May 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y487)
= Exp(a + b × X487 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 703 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4048 + 0.0008 × 703 + 2 × 0.1132)
= Exp(5.2009)
= $181.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y487)
= Exp(a + b × X487 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 703 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4048 + 0.0008 × 703 – 2 × 0.1132)
= Exp(4.7482)
= $115.38
March 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4048 + 0.0008 × 1,736 + 2 × 0.1132)
= Exp(6.0380)
= $419.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,194)
= Exp(a + b × X1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4048 + 0.0008 × 1,736 – 2 × 0.1132)
= Exp(5.5853)
= $266.49
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.42% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of May 30, 2025 was $265.37 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $20.82 (7.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 11, 2024
End date: May 9, 2025
a = 8.9708
b = -0.0019
s = 0.0587
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -49.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0587) – 1
= 26.44%
November 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9708 + -0.0019 × 1,624 + 2 × 0.0587)
= Exp(6.0115)
= $408.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9708 + -0.0019 × 1,624 – 2 × 0.0587)
= Exp(5.7769)
= $322.76
May 9, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9708 + -0.0019 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0587)
= Exp(5.6724)
= $290.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9708 + -0.0019 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0587)
= Exp(5.4378)
= $229.94
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 49.92% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of May 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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