Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.18% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of November 13, 2026 was $217.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $33.86 (18.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 95.49% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of November 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 2, 2024
End date: August 7, 2026
a = 6.9101
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0860
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0860) – 1
= 41.04%
October 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y723)
= Exp(a + b × X723 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,052 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9101 + -0.0010 × 1,052 + 2 × 0.0860)
= Exp(6.0051)
= $405.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y723)
= Exp(a + b × X723 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,052 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9101 + -0.0010 × 1,052 – 2 × 0.0860)
= Exp(5.6613)
= $287.51
August 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,726 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9101 + -0.0010 × 1,726 + 2 × 0.0860)
= Exp(5.3152)
= $203.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,726 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9101 + -0.0010 × 1,726 – 2 × 0.0860)
= Exp(4.9713)
= $144.21
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.18% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of November 13, 2026 was $217.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $33.86 (18.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 7, 2026
End date: November 13, 2026
a = 2.1334
b = 0.0018
s = 0.1039
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 95.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1039) – 1
= 51.53%
April 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1334 + 0.0018 × 1,604 + 2 × 0.1039)
= Exp(5.2870)
= $197.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1334 + 0.0018 × 1,604 – 2 × 0.1039)
= Exp(4.8714)
= $130.50
November 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1334 + 0.0018 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1039)
= Exp(5.6910)
= $296.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1334 + 0.0018 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1039)
= Exp(5.2754)
= $195.47
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 95.49% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of November 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.