Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 612.18% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of October 14, 2026 was $235.95 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.39 (4.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 70.98% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of October 14, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.29 (1.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 11, 2026
End date: September 25, 2026
a = 3.3757
b = 0.0054
s = 0.0673
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0054) – 1
= 612.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0673) – 1
= 30.91%
June 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y205)
= Exp(a + b × X205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 297 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3757 + 0.0054 × 297 + 2 × 0.0673)
= Exp(5.1078)
= $165.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y205)
= Exp(a + b × X205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 297 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3757 + 0.0054 × 297 – 2 × 0.0673)
= Exp(4.8384)
= $126.27
September 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3757 + 0.0054 × 403 + 2 × 0.0673)
= Exp(5.6779)
= $292.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3757 + 0.0054 × 403 – 2 × 0.0673)
= Exp(5.4086)
= $223.31
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 612.18% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of October 14, 2026 was $235.95 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.39 (4.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 27, 2026
End date: October 9, 2026
a = 6.8309
b = -0.0034
s = 0.0224
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0034) – 1
= -70.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0224) – 1
= 9.38%
August 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y258)
= Exp(a + b × X258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 374 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8309 + -0.0034 × 374 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(5.6080)
= $272.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y258)
= Exp(a + b × X258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 374 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8309 + -0.0034 × 374 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(5.5183)
= $249.21
October 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y288)
= Exp(a + b × X288 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8309 + -0.0034 × 417 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(5.4622)
= $235.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y288)
= Exp(a + b × X288 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8309 + -0.0034 × 417 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(5.3725)
= $215.41
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 70.98% per annum.
- CRM price at the close of October 14, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.29 (1.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.