Stock Analysis on Net

International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 58.27% per annum.
  • IBM price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $190.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 113.45% per annum.
  • IBM price at the close of March 27, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IBM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 13, 2023
End date: March 27, 2024

a = 2.9342

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0419

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 58.27%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0419) – 1
= 18.25%

April 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,018)
= Exp(a + b × X1,018 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,477 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9342 + 0.0013 × 1,477 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(4.8759)
= $131.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,018)
= Exp(a + b × X1,018 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,477 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9342 + 0.0013 × 1,477 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(4.7082)
= $110.85

March 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9342 + 0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(5.3149)
= $203.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9342 + 0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(5.1472)
= $171.95

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 58.27% per annum.
  • IBM price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $190.80 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 29, 2023
End date: March 27, 2024

a = 1.4997

b = 0.0021

s = 0.0272

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 113.45%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0272) – 1
= 11.49%

September 29, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4997 + 0.0021 × 1,646 + 2 × 0.0272)
= Exp(4.9734)
= $144.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4997 + 0.0021 × 1,646 – 2 × 0.0272)
= Exp(4.8647)
= $129.63

March 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4997 + 0.0021 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0272)
= Exp(5.3473)
= $210.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4997 + 0.0021 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0272)
= Exp(5.2386)
= $188.41

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 113.45% per annum.
  • IBM price at the close of March 27, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
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