Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.96% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of August 12, 2026 was $171.04 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $22.39 (15.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 839.05% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of August 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PLTR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2025
End date: August 3, 2026
a = 6.8325
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0843
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0843) – 1
= 40.12%
August 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y997)
= Exp(a + b × X997 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,453 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8325 + -0.0011 × 1,453 + 2 × 0.0843)
= Exp(5.4092)
= $223.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y997)
= Exp(a + b × X997 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,453 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8325 + -0.0011 × 1,453 – 2 × 0.0843)
= Exp(5.0719)
= $159.47
August 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8325 + -0.0011 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0843)
= Exp(5.0115)
= $150.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8325 + -0.0011 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0843)
= Exp(4.6741)
= $107.14
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.96% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of August 12, 2026 was $171.04 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $22.39 (15.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 22, 2026
End date: August 12, 2026
a = -6.1574
b = 0.0061
s = 0.0866
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0061) – 1
= 839.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0866) – 1
= 41.39%
June 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.1574 + 0.0061 × 1,774 + 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(4.9013)
= $134.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.1574 + 0.0061 × 1,774 – 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(4.5550)
= $95.11
August 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.1574 + 0.0061 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(5.2143)
= $183.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.1574 + 0.0061 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(4.8679)
= $130.05
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 839.05% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of August 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.