Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.65% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of November 11, 2026 was $172.40 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.26 (5.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 337.23% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of November 11, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $16.48 (8.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PLTR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 9, 2025
End date: August 6, 2026
a = 5.8914
b = -0.0006
s = 0.1177
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1177) – 1
= 60.12%
June 9, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y894)
= Exp(a + b × X894 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,305 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8914 + -0.0006 × 1,305 + 2 × 0.1177)
= Exp(5.3887)
= $218.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y894)
= Exp(a + b × X894 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,305 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8914 + -0.0006 × 1,305 – 2 × 0.1177)
= Exp(4.9179)
= $136.72
August 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8914 + -0.0006 × 1,728 + 2 × 0.1177)
= Exp(5.1495)
= $172.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8914 + -0.0006 × 1,728 – 2 × 0.1177)
= Exp(4.6787)
= $107.63
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.65% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of November 11, 2026 was $172.40 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.26 (5.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 5, 2026
End date: October 29, 2026
a = -1.9684
b = 0.0040
s = 0.0835
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0040) – 1
= 337.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0835) – 1
= 39.63%
June 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,666 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9684 + 0.0040 × 1,666 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(4.9323)
= $138.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,666 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9684 + 0.0040 × 1,666 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(4.5985)
= $99.33
October 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9684 + 0.0040 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(5.5224)
= $250.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9684 + 0.0040 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0835)
= Exp(5.1886)
= $179.21
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 337.23% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of November 11, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $16.48 (8.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.