Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.31% per annum.
- CDNS price at the close of October 30, 2026 was $327.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 41.11% per annum.
- CDNS price at the close of October 30, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CDNS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 7, 2023
End date: October 30, 2026
a = 5.4698
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0907
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0907) – 1
= 43.72%
November 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y507)
= Exp(a + b × X507 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4698 + 0.0002 × 736 + 2 × 0.0907)
= Exp(5.7935)
= $328.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y507)
= Exp(a + b × X507 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4698 + 0.0002 × 736 – 2 × 0.0907)
= Exp(5.4308)
= $228.33
October 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4698 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0907)
= Exp(6.0039)
= $405.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4698 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0907)
= Exp(5.6412)
= $281.80
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.31% per annum.
- CDNS price at the close of October 30, 2026 was $327.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 22, 2026
End date: October 30, 2026
a = 8.3666
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0708
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -41.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0708) – 1
= 32.72%
May 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,663 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3666 + -0.0015 × 1,663 + 2 × 0.0708)
= Exp(6.0959)
= $444.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,663 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3666 + -0.0015 × 1,663 – 2 × 0.0708)
= Exp(5.8128)
= $334.55
October 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3666 + -0.0015 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0708)
= Exp(5.8623)
= $351.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3666 + -0.0015 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0708)
= Exp(5.5792)
= $264.87
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 41.11% per annum.
- CDNS price at the close of October 30, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.