Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.68% per annum.
- CDNS price at the close of August 4, 2026 was $340.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.71% per annum.
- CDNS price at the close of August 4, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CDNS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 7, 2023
End date: May 1, 2026
a = 5.4998
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0866
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 5.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0866) – 1
= 41.39%
November 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y568)
= Exp(a + b × X568 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4998 + 0.0002 × 824 + 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(5.7977)
= $329.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y568)
= Exp(a + b × X568 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4998 + 0.0002 × 824 – 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(5.4514)
= $233.08
May 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4998 + 0.0002 × 1,730 + 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(5.9349)
= $377.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4998 + 0.0002 × 1,730 – 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(5.5885)
= $267.34
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.68% per annum.
- CDNS price at the close of August 4, 2026 was $340.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 1, 2026
End date: August 4, 2026
a = 11.4640
b = -0.0031
s = 0.0326
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0326) – 1
= 13.91%
June 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,761 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4640 + -0.0031 × 1,761 + 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(6.0749)
= $434.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,761 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4640 + -0.0031 × 1,761 – 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(5.9447)
= $381.71
August 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4640 + -0.0031 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(5.8767)
= $356.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4640 + -0.0031 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(5.7464)
= $313.08
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.71% per annum.
- CDNS price at the close of August 4, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.