Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.43% per annum.
- CDNS price at the close of October 9, 2026 was $352.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6,194.09% per annum.
- CDNS price at the close of October 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CDNS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 7, 2023
End date: October 9, 2026
a = 5.4624
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0914
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0914) – 1
= 44.14%
November 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y522)
= Exp(a + b × X522 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 757 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4624 + 0.0002 × 757 + 2 × 0.0914)
= Exp(5.7938)
= $328.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y522)
= Exp(a + b × X522 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 757 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4624 + 0.0002 × 757 – 2 × 0.0914)
= Exp(5.4282)
= $227.75
October 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4624 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0914)
= Exp(6.0034)
= $404.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4624 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0914)
= Exp(5.6378)
= $280.85
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.43% per annum.
- CDNS price at the close of October 9, 2026 was $352.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 14, 2026
End date: October 9, 2026
a = -14.7929
b = 0.0113
s = 0.0257
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0113) – 1
= 6,194.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0257) – 1
= 10.81%
September 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-14.7929 + 0.0113 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0257)
= Exp(5.6743)
= $291.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-14.7929 + 0.0113 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0257)
= Exp(5.5717)
= $262.88
October 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-14.7929 + 0.0113 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0257)
= Exp(5.9580)
= $386.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-14.7929 + 0.0113 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0257)
= Exp(5.8554)
= $349.12
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6,194.09% per annum.
- CDNS price at the close of October 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.