Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 45.60% per annum.
- APP price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $330.17 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.95% per annum.
- APP price at the close of September 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 8, 2025
End date: September 21, 2026
a = 8.9233
b = -0.0017
s = 0.1506
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -45.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1506) – 1
= 82.66%
September 8, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,447 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9233 + -0.0017 × 1,447 + 2 × 0.1506)
= Exp(6.8109)
= $907.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,447 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9233 + -0.0017 × 1,447 – 2 × 0.1506)
= Exp(6.2084)
= $496.93
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9233 + -0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1506)
= Exp(6.1804)
= $483.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9233 + -0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1506)
= Exp(5.5779)
= $264.52
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 45.60% per annum.
- APP price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $330.17 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 27, 2026
End date: September 21, 2026
a = 17.1289
b = -0.0063
s = 0.0855
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0063) – 1
= -89.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0855) – 1
= 40.79%
May 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.1289 + -0.0063 × 1,708 + 2 × 0.0855)
= Exp(6.5496)
= $699.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.1289 + -0.0063 × 1,708 – 2 × 0.0855)
= Exp(6.2076)
= $496.49
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.1289 + -0.0063 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0855)
= Exp(5.8132)
= $334.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.1289 + -0.0063 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0855)
= Exp(5.4711)
= $237.73
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.95% per annum.
- APP price at the close of September 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.