Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.54% per annum.
- APP price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $356.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.39% per annum.
- APP price at the close of November 5, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $69.88 (24.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 9, 2025
End date: November 5, 2026
a = 9.3316
b = -0.0020
s = 0.1551
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1551) – 1
= 85.96%
September 9, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y961)
= Exp(a + b × X961 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3316 + -0.0020 × 1,401 + 2 × 0.1551)
= Exp(6.8613)
= $954.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y961)
= Exp(a + b × X961 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3316 + -0.0020 × 1,401 – 2 × 0.1551)
= Exp(6.2410)
= $513.35
November 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3316 + -0.0020 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1551)
= Exp(6.0238)
= $413.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3316 + -0.0020 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1551)
= Exp(5.4035)
= $222.17
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.54% per annum.
- APP price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $356.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 26, 2026
End date: November 5, 2026
a = 15.0842
b = -0.0053
s = 0.0901
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0053) – 1
= -85.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0901) – 1
= 43.38%
May 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.0842 + -0.0053 × 1,660 + 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(6.5158)
= $675.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.0842 + -0.0053 × 1,660 – 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(6.1555)
= $471.30
November 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.0842 + -0.0053 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(5.6567)
= $286.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.0842 + -0.0053 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(5.2964)
= $199.62
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.39% per annum.
- APP price at the close of November 5, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $69.88 (24.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.