Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 235.13% per annum.
- INTU price at the close of October 6, 2026 was $289.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $57.54 (16.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 92.58% per annum.
- INTU price at the close of October 6, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.45 (1.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INTU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 3, 2026
End date: September 4, 2026
a = 4.3755
b = 0.0033
s = 0.0627
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0033) – 1
= 235.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0627) – 1
= 28.53%
June 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y246)
= Exp(a + b × X246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 358 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3755 + 0.0033 × 358 + 2 × 0.0627)
= Exp(5.6871)
= $295.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y246)
= Exp(a + b × X246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 358 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3755 + 0.0033 × 358 – 2 × 0.0627)
= Exp(5.4362)
= $229.56
September 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y311)
= Exp(a + b × X311 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 451 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3755 + 0.0033 × 451 + 2 × 0.0627)
= Exp(5.9953)
= $401.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y311)
= Exp(a + b × X311 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 451 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3755 + 0.0033 × 451 – 2 × 0.0627)
= Exp(5.7443)
= $312.41
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 235.13% per annum.
- INTU price at the close of October 6, 2026 was $289.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $57.54 (16.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 19, 2026
End date: October 2, 2026
a = 9.0261
b = -0.0071
s = 0.0326
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0071) – 1
= -92.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0326) – 1
= 13.92%
August 19, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y299)
= Exp(a + b × X299 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0261 + -0.0071 × 435 + 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(5.9922)
= $400.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y299)
= Exp(a + b × X299 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0261 + -0.0071 × 435 – 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(5.8618)
= $351.37
October 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y330)
= Exp(a + b × X330 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 479 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0261 + -0.0071 × 479 + 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(5.6787)
= $292.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y330)
= Exp(a + b × X330 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 479 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0261 + -0.0071 × 479 – 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(5.5484)
= $256.82
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 92.58% per annum.
- INTU price at the close of October 6, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.45 (1.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.