Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 235.13% per annum.
- INTU price at the close of October 30, 2026 was $341.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $33.31 (8.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 57.15% per annum.
- INTU price at the close of October 30, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $20.83 (6.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INTU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 3, 2026
End date: September 4, 2026
a = 4.6725
b = 0.0033
s = 0.0627
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0033) – 1
= 235.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0627) – 1
= 28.53%
June 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y184)
= Exp(a + b × X184 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 267 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6725 + 0.0033 × 267 + 2 × 0.0627)
= Exp(5.6826)
= $293.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y184)
= Exp(a + b × X184 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 267 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6725 + 0.0033 × 267 – 2 × 0.0627)
= Exp(5.4317)
= $228.53
September 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y249)
= Exp(a + b × X249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 360 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6725 + 0.0033 × 360 + 2 × 0.0627)
= Exp(5.9907)
= $399.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y249)
= Exp(a + b × X249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 360 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6725 + 0.0033 × 360 – 2 × 0.0627)
= Exp(5.7398)
= $311.00
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 235.13% per annum.
- INTU price at the close of October 30, 2026 was $341.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $33.31 (8.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 28, 2026
End date: October 14, 2026
a = 6.6007
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0672
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -57.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0672) – 1
= 30.82%
July 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y221)
= Exp(a + b × X221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 322 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6007 + -0.0023 × 322 + 2 × 0.0672)
= Exp(5.9874)
= $398.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y221)
= Exp(a + b × X221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 322 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6007 + -0.0023 × 322 – 2 × 0.0672)
= Exp(5.7188)
= $304.53
October 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y276)
= Exp(a + b × X276 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 400 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6007 + -0.0023 × 400 + 2 × 0.0672)
= Exp(5.8063)
= $332.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y276)
= Exp(a + b × X276 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 400 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6007 + -0.0023 × 400 – 2 × 0.0672)
= Exp(5.5376)
= $254.08
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 57.15% per annum.
- INTU price at the close of October 30, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $20.83 (6.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.