Stock Analysis on Net

Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU)

Present Value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)

Microsoft Excel

Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Intuit Inc., free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) forecast

US$ in millions, except per share data

Microsoft Excel
Year Value FCFFt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 14.67%
01 FCFF0 5,003
1 FCFF1 5,761 = 5,003 × (1 + 15.15%) 5,024
2 FCFF2 6,583 = 5,761 × (1 + 14.27%) 5,006
3 FCFF3 7,464 = 6,583 × (1 + 13.39%) 4,950
4 FCFF4 8,398 = 7,464 × (1 + 12.51%) 4,857
5 FCFF5 9,376 = 8,398 × (1 + 11.64%) 4,729
5 Terminal value (TV5) 345,118 = 9,376 × (1 + 11.64%) ÷ (14.67%11.64%) 174,062
Intrinsic value of Intuit Inc. capital 198,628
Less: Debt (fair value) 5,939
Intrinsic value of Intuit Inc. common stock 192,689
 
Intrinsic value of Intuit Inc. common stock (per share) $688.23
Current share price $636.55

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-07-31).

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Intuit Inc., cost of capital

Microsoft Excel
Value1 Weight Required rate of return2 Calculation
Equity (fair value) 178,221 0.97 15.09%
Debt (fair value) 5,939 0.03 2.18% = 2.66% × (1 – 18.17%)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-07-31).

1 US$ in millions

   Equity (fair value) = No. shares of common stock outstanding × Current share price
= 279,979,000 × $636.55
= $178,220,632,450.00

   Debt (fair value). See details »

2 Required rate of return on equity is estimated by using CAPM. See details »

   Required rate of return on debt. See details »

   Required rate of return on debt is after tax.

   Estimated (average) effective income tax rate
= (20.24% + 18.73% + 19.33% + 16.92% + 17.22% + 16.57%) ÷ 6
= 18.17%

WACC = 14.67%


FCFF Growth Rate (g)

FCFF growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Intuit Inc., PRAT model

Microsoft Excel
Average Jul 31, 2023 Jul 31, 2022 Jul 31, 2021 Jul 31, 2020 Jul 31, 2019 Jul 31, 2018
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Interest expense 248 81 29 14 15 20
Net income 2,384 2,066 2,062 1,826 1,557 1,211
 
Effective income tax rate (EITR)1 20.24% 18.73% 19.33% 16.92% 17.22% 16.57%
 
Interest expense, after tax2 198 66 23 12 12 17
Add: Dividends and dividend rights declared 898 781 651 562 500 407
Interest expense (after tax) and dividends 1,096 847 674 574 512 424
 
EBIT(1 – EITR)3 2,582 2,132 2,085 1,838 1,569 1,228
 
Short-term debt 499 1,338 50 50
Long-term debt 6,120 6,415 2,034 2,031 386 388
Stockholders’ equity 17,269 16,441 9,869 5,106 3,749 2,354
Total capital 23,389 23,355 11,903 8,475 4,185 2,792
Financial Ratios
Retention rate (RR)4 0.58 0.60 0.68 0.69 0.67 0.65
Return on invested capital (ROIC)5 11.04% 9.13% 17.52% 21.68% 37.50% 43.97%
Averages
RR 0.65
ROIC 23.47%
 
FCFF growth rate (g)6 15.15%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-07-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-07-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-07-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-07-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-07-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-07-31).

1 See details »

2023 Calculations

2 Interest expense, after tax = Interest expense × (1 – EITR)
= 248 × (1 – 20.24%)
= 198

3 EBIT(1 – EITR) = Net income + Interest expense, after tax
= 2,384 + 198
= 2,582

4 RR = [EBIT(1 – EITR) – Interest expense (after tax) and dividends] ÷ EBIT(1 – EITR)
= [2,5821,096] ÷ 2,582
= 0.58

5 ROIC = 100 × EBIT(1 – EITR) ÷ Total capital
= 100 × 2,582 ÷ 23,389
= 11.04%

6 g = RR × ROIC
= 0.65 × 23.47%
= 15.15%


FCFF growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Total capital, fair value0 × WACC – FCFF0) ÷ (Total capital, fair value0 + FCFF0)
= 100 × (184,160 × 14.67%5,003) ÷ (184,160 + 5,003)
= 11.64%

where:

Total capital, fair value0 = current fair value of Intuit Inc. debt and equity (US$ in millions)
FCFF0 = the last year Intuit Inc. free cash flow to the firm (US$ in millions)
WACC = weighted average cost of Intuit Inc. capital


FCFF growth rate (g) forecast

Intuit Inc., H-model

Microsoft Excel
Year Value gt
1 g1 15.15%
2 g2 14.27%
3 g3 13.39%
4 g4 12.51%
5 and thereafter g5 11.64%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 15.15% + (11.64%15.15%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 14.27%

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 15.15% + (11.64%15.15%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 13.39%

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 15.15% + (11.64%15.15%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 12.51%