Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.02% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $137.68 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $11.87 (9.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 445.73% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of September 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2024
End date: August 6, 2026
a = 7.0232
b = -0.0014
s = 0.1425
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1425) – 1
= 76.85%
November 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y784)
= Exp(a + b × X784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0232 + -0.0014 × 1,139 + 2 × 0.1425)
= Exp(5.7645)
= $318.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y784)
= Exp(a + b × X784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0232 + -0.0014 × 1,139 – 2 × 0.1425)
= Exp(5.1944)
= $180.26
August 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0232 + -0.0014 × 1,779 + 2 × 0.1425)
= Exp(4.8971)
= $133.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0232 + -0.0014 × 1,779 – 2 × 0.1425)
= Exp(4.3270)
= $75.72
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.02% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $137.68 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $11.87 (9.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 17, 2026
End date: September 21, 2026
a = -3.5028
b = 0.0046
s = 0.0553
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0046) – 1
= 445.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0553) – 1
= 24.75%
June 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5028 + 0.0046 × 1,729 + 2 × 0.0553)
= Exp(4.6462)
= $104.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5028 + 0.0046 × 1,729 – 2 × 0.0553)
= Exp(4.4251)
= $83.52
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5028 + 0.0046 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0553)
= Exp(5.0926)
= $162.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5028 + 0.0046 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0553)
= Exp(4.8714)
= $130.50
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 445.73% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of September 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.