Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.77% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of August 7, 2026 was $124.88 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $14.98 (13.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 78.06% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of August 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 30, 2025
End date: July 27, 2026
a = 8.2270
b = -0.0021
s = 0.1106
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -52.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1106) – 1
= 55.63%
April 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y935)
= Exp(a + b × X935 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,360 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2270 + -0.0021 × 1,360 + 2 × 0.1106)
= Exp(5.6532)
= $285.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y935)
= Exp(a + b × X935 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,360 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2270 + -0.0021 × 1,360 – 2 × 0.1106)
= Exp(5.2109)
= $183.26
July 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2270 + -0.0021 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.1106)
= Exp(4.7222)
= $112.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2270 + -0.0021 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.1106)
= Exp(4.2799)
= $72.23
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.77% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of August 7, 2026 was $124.88 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $14.98 (13.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 7, 2026
End date: August 7, 2026
a = 1.8307
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0837
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 78.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0837) – 1
= 39.79%
April 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,169)
= Exp(a + b × X1,169 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,702 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8307 + 0.0016 × 1,702 + 2 × 0.0837)
= Exp(4.6886)
= $108.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,169)
= Exp(a + b × X1,169 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,702 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8307 + 0.0016 × 1,702 – 2 × 0.0837)
= Exp(4.3537)
= $77.77
August 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8307 + 0.0016 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0837)
= Exp(4.8815)
= $131.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8307 + 0.0016 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0837)
= Exp(4.5466)
= $94.31
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 78.06% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of August 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.