Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.93% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $102.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 151.88% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of November 5, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $26.53 (20.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 4, 2024
End date: August 18, 2026
a = 6.7607
b = -0.0012
s = 0.1500
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1500) – 1
= 82.18%
October 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y730)
= Exp(a + b × X730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,061 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7607 + -0.0012 × 1,061 + 2 × 0.1500)
= Exp(5.7664)
= $319.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y730)
= Exp(a + b × X730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,061 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7607 + -0.0012 × 1,061 – 2 × 0.1500)
= Exp(5.1666)
= $175.32
August 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7607 + -0.0012 × 1,744 + 2 × 0.1500)
= Exp(4.9334)
= $138.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7607 + -0.0012 × 1,744 – 2 × 0.1500)
= Exp(4.3335)
= $76.21
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.93% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $102.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 2, 2026
End date: October 28, 2026
a = 0.4054
b = 0.0025
s = 0.0801
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 151.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0801) – 1
= 37.78%
April 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,606 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4054 + 0.0025 × 1,606 + 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(4.6302)
= $102.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,606 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4054 + 0.0025 × 1,606 – 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(4.3097)
= $74.42
October 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4054 + 0.0025 × 1,815 + 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(5.1592)
= $174.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4054 + 0.0025 × 1,815 – 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(4.8387)
= $126.30
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 151.88% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of November 5, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $26.53 (20.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.