Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.63% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of September 23, 2026 was $413.06 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.67% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of September 23, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SNPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 10, 2023
End date: September 23, 2026
a = 6.5670
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0972
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0972) – 1
= 47.51%
November 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y536)
= Exp(a + b × X536 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5670 + -0.0003 × 777 + 2 × 0.0972)
= Exp(6.5458)
= $696.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y536)
= Exp(a + b × X536 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5670 + -0.0003 × 777 – 2 × 0.0972)
= Exp(6.1571)
= $472.04
September 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5670 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0972)
= Exp(6.2550)
= $520.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5670 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0972)
= Exp(5.8663)
= $352.95
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.63% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of September 23, 2026 was $413.06 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 24, 2026
End date: September 23, 2026
a = 9.5694
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0538
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0538) – 1
= 24.00%
April 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,673 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5694 + -0.0020 × 1,673 + 2 × 0.0538)
= Exp(6.3438)
= $568.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,673 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5694 + -0.0020 × 1,673 – 2 × 0.0538)
= Exp(6.1288)
= $458.87
September 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5694 + -0.0020 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0538)
= Exp(6.0410)
= $420.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5694 + -0.0020 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0538)
= Exp(5.8259)
= $338.98
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.67% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of September 23, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.