Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.60% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of July 24, 2026 was $373.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 73.95% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of July 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SNPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 8, 2023
End date: July 24, 2026
a = 6.5466
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0975
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0975) – 1
= 47.68%
November 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y577)
= Exp(a + b × X577 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 835 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5466 + -0.0002 × 835 + 2 × 0.0975)
= Exp(6.5357)
= $689.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y577)
= Exp(a + b × X577 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 835 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5466 + -0.0002 × 835 – 2 × 0.0975)
= Exp(6.1458)
= $466.76
July 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5466 + -0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0975)
= Exp(6.2919)
= $540.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5466 + -0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0975)
= Exp(5.9020)
= $365.78
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.60% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of July 24, 2026 was $373.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 8, 2026
End date: July 24, 2026
a = 12.7142
b = -0.0037
s = 0.0368
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0037) – 1
= -73.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0368) – 1
= 15.84%
May 8, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.7142 + -0.0037 × 1,747 + 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(6.3488)
= $571.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.7142 + -0.0037 × 1,747 – 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(6.2017)
= $493.58
July 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.7142 + -0.0037 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(6.0650)
= $430.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.7142 + -0.0037 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(5.9179)
= $371.63
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 73.95% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of July 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.