Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.90% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of March 27, 2026 was $380.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 66.81% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of March 27, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SNPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 8, 2023
End date: March 27, 2026
a = 6.5870
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0980
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -8.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0980) – 1
= 47.98%
November 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y659)
= Exp(a + b × X659 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 954 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5870 + -0.0003 × 954 + 2 × 0.0980)
= Exp(6.5394)
= $691.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y659)
= Exp(a + b × X659 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 954 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5870 + -0.0003 × 954 – 2 × 0.0980)
= Exp(6.1475)
= $467.53
March 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5870 + -0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0980)
= Exp(6.3172)
= $554.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5870 + -0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0980)
= Exp(5.9253)
= $374.40
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.90% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of March 27, 2026 was $380.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 5, 2026
End date: March 27, 2026
a = 11.5040
b = -0.0030
s = 0.0467
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0030) – 1
= -66.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0467) – 1
= 20.52%
January 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.5040 + -0.0030 × 1,743 + 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(6.3307)
= $561.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.5040 + -0.0030 × 1,743 – 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(6.1440)
= $465.92
March 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.5040 + -0.0030 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(6.0859)
= $439.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.5040 + -0.0030 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(5.8993)
= $364.77
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 66.81% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of March 27, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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