Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.00% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of November 6, 2026 was $450.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 109.15% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of November 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SNPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 10, 2023
End date: November 6, 2026
a = 6.5338
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0972
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0972) – 1
= 47.54%
November 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y505)
= Exp(a + b × X505 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 732 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5338 + -0.0003 × 732 + 2 × 0.0972)
= Exp(6.5391)
= $691.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y505)
= Exp(a + b × X505 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 732 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5338 + -0.0003 × 732 – 2 × 0.0972)
= Exp(6.1502)
= $468.80
November 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5338 + -0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0972)
= Exp(6.2568)
= $521.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5338 + -0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0972)
= Exp(5.8679)
= $353.51
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.00% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of November 6, 2026 was $450.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 17, 2026
End date: November 6, 2026
a = 2.4735
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0618
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 109.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0618) – 1
= 28.04%
July 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4735 + 0.0020 × 1,712 + 2 × 0.0618)
= Exp(6.0579)
= $427.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4735 + 0.0020 × 1,712 – 2 × 0.0618)
= Exp(5.8108)
= $333.87
November 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4735 + 0.0020 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0618)
= Exp(6.2843)
= $536.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4735 + 0.0020 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0618)
= Exp(6.0372)
= $418.71
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 109.15% per annum.
- SNPS price at the close of November 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.