Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 92.64% per annum.
- FICO price at the close of July 30, 2025 was $1,527.80 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1,164.34 (43.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.90% per annum.
- FICO price at the close of July 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FICO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 1, 2022
End date: January 8, 2025
a = 4.7779
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0791
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 92.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0791) – 1
= 37.19%
April 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y421)
= Exp(a + b × X421 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 609 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7779 + 0.0018 × 609 + 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(6.0300)
= $415.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y421)
= Exp(a + b × X421 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 609 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7779 + 0.0018 × 609 – 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(5.7138)
= $303.01
January 8, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,116)
= Exp(a + b × X1,116 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,622 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7779 + 0.0018 × 1,622 + 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(7.8497)
= $2,564.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,116)
= Exp(a + b × X1,116 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,622 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7779 + 0.0018 × 1,622 – 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(7.5334)
= $1,869.53
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 92.64% per annum.
- FICO price at the close of July 30, 2025 was $1,527.80 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1,164.34 (43.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 19, 2024
End date: July 30, 2025
a = 8.8039
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0822
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0822) – 1
= 38.94%
September 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,511 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8039 + -0.0007 × 1,511 + 2 × 0.0822)
= Exp(7.8375)
= $2,533.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,511 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8039 + -0.0007 × 1,511 – 2 × 0.0822)
= Exp(7.5086)
= $1,823.64
July 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8039 + -0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0822)
= Exp(7.6025)
= $2,003.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8039 + -0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0822)
= Exp(7.2736)
= $1,441.72
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.90% per annum.
- FICO price at the close of July 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.