Stock Analysis on Net

Fair Isaac Corp. (NYSE:FICO) 

Market Value Added (MVA)

Microsoft Excel

MVA

Fair Isaac Corp., MVA calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
Sep 30, 2024 Sep 30, 2023 Sep 30, 2022 Sep 30, 2021 Sep 30, 2020 Sep 30, 2019
Fair value of debt and finance lease liabilities1 2,192,657 1,763,050 1,717,550 1,328,000 901,012 864,545
Operating lease liability 33,518 40,239 58,561 75,744 95,994 97,296
Market value of common equity 50,902,456 23,241,370 11,083,430 10,631,730 13,435,210 9,603,381
Preferred stock, $0.01 par value; none issued and outstanding
Less: Marketable securities 45,289 33,014 24,515 31,884 25,513 20,222
Market (fair) value of FICO 53,083,342 25,011,645 12,835,026 12,003,590 14,406,703 10,545,000
Less: Invested capital2 1,416,757 1,372,115 1,329,445 1,370,014 1,445,030 1,401,400
MVA 51,666,585 23,639,530 11,505,581 10,633,576 12,961,673 9,143,600

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-09-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-09-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-09-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-09-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-09-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-09-30).

1 Fair value of debt. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »


Market (fair) value of FICO
The market value showed a general upward trend from September 30, 2019, to September 30, 2024. Initially, it increased from 10,545,000 thousand US dollars in 2019 to a peak of 14,406,703 thousand in 2020. Following that, there was a decline in 2021 to 12,003,590 thousand, then a moderate recovery to 12,835,026 thousand in 2022. Notably, the market value experienced a significant acceleration in growth over the last two years, reaching 25,011,645 thousand in 2023 and more than doubling to 53,083,342 thousand in 2024.
Invested capital
The invested capital remained relatively stable throughout the period, fluctuating slightly around the 1,400,000 to 1,420,000 thousand US dollars range. It started at 1,401,400 thousand in 2019, saw a small increase to 1,445,030 thousand in 2020, then declined gradually to around 1,329,445 thousand in 2022. The invested capital recovered moderately to 1,372,115 thousand in 2023 and further to 1,416,757 thousand in 2024, indicating consistency in the capital invested in the company.
Market value added (MVA)
The market value added closely mirrored the trends in the market value but showed strong positive growth overall. From 9,143,600 thousand in 2019, it increased to 12,961,673 thousand in 2020 before dropping to 10,633,576 thousand in 2021. A mild recovery occurred in 2022 with MVA reaching 11,505,581 thousand. The period between 2022 and 2024 marked a significant expansion, with MVA rising sharply to 23,639,530 thousand in 2023, then more than doubling to 51,666,585 thousand in 2024. This substantial increase suggests a strong enhancement in value creation beyond the invested capital in the recent years.

MVA Spread Ratio

Fair Isaac Corp., MVA spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Sep 30, 2024 Sep 30, 2023 Sep 30, 2022 Sep 30, 2021 Sep 30, 2020 Sep 30, 2019
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Market value added (MVA)1 51,666,585 23,639,530 11,505,581 10,633,576 12,961,673 9,143,600
Invested capital2 1,416,757 1,372,115 1,329,445 1,370,014 1,445,030 1,401,400
Performance Ratio
MVA spread ratio3 3,646.82% 1,722.85% 865.44% 776.17% 896.98% 652.46%
Benchmarks
MVA Spread Ratio, Competitors4
Accenture PLC 524.20% 487.90% 442.58% 739.74% 550.21% 505.40%
Adobe Inc. 642.58% 991.60% 658.07% 1,033.13% 1,082.99% 884.94%
Cadence Design Systems Inc. 910.94% 1,934.83% 1,302.22% 1,110.87% 1,232.57%
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. 1,264.87% 608.44% 1,273.85% 1,618.34% 1,449.48%
International Business Machines Corp. 162.78% 100.64% 60.20% 54.96% 39.12%
Intuit Inc. 624.57% 573.60% 406.80% 1,175.12% 976.09% 1,553.30%
Microsoft Corp. 803.69% 892.49% 956.02% 1,383.21% 1,315.93% 962.41%
Oracle Corp. 370.24% 324.04% 224.95% 260.27% 180.84%
Palantir Technologies Inc. 11,445.95% 3,878.69% 488.89% 829.78% 1,919.83%
Palo Alto Networks Inc. 894.07% 731.80% 559.30% 573.51% 267.94% 424.83%
Salesforce Inc. 256.35% 126.24% 150.31% 270.75% 226.93%
ServiceNow Inc. 1,951.86% 1,781.94% 1,276.80% 1,798.18% 2,575.52%
Synopsys Inc. 645.36% 973.25% 565.55% 707.79% 468.10% 272.11%
Workday Inc. 677.38% 471.48% 655.74% 908.31% 677.76%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-09-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-09-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-09-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-09-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-09-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-09-30).

1 MVA. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2024 Calculation
MVA spread ratio = 100 × MVA ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × 51,666,585 ÷ 1,416,757 = 3,646.82%

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Market Value Added (MVA)
The Market Value Added demonstrates a fluctuating but generally increasing trend over the analyzed periods. Starting at approximately $9.14 billion in 2019, it rose significantly to about $12.96 billion in 2020. A decline followed in the next two years, with values descending to roughly $10.63 billion in 2021 and then slightly increasing to $11.51 billion in 2022. Notably, the MVA exhibits a sharp and substantial increase in the final two years, surging to $23.64 billion in 2023 and more than doubling again to $51.67 billion in 2024. This suggests a strong improvement in market valuation relative to invested capital during the later periods.
Invested Capital
Invested capital remained relatively stable throughout the period under review. It started at about $1.40 billion in 2019 and experienced minor fluctuations, dipping to roughly $1.33 billion in 2022. Subsequently, it gradually increased back to around $1.42 billion by 2024. The modest changes in invested capital compared to the significant variations in MVA indicate that increases in market value are not primarily driven by increases in capital investment.
MVA Spread Ratio
The MVA spread ratio exhibits a notable upward trajectory across the years. Beginning at 652.46% in 2019, it escalated to nearly 897% in 2020 before retreating to about 776% in 2021. The ratio then rose again to 865% in 2022. From there, the ratio more than doubled to 1,723% in 2023 and then more than doubled once more, reaching an exceptional 3,647% in 2024. This pattern suggests a dramatic improvement in the company's ability to generate market value beyond the amount of invested capital, reflecting a significant increase in value creation efficiency in recent years.
Summary Insights
Despite relatively steady invested capital, the company has experienced volatility in market value added early in the period followed by explosive growth in the final two years. The MVA spread ratio's downward blips in 2021 and 2022 contrast with strong upward rebounds, supporting the view that value creation accelerated markedly after 2022. Overall, these financial indicators point to enhanced market perception and effectively amplified returns on invested capital in recent years, demonstrating improved financial performance and value generation capacity.

MVA Margin

Fair Isaac Corp., MVA margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Sep 30, 2024 Sep 30, 2023 Sep 30, 2022 Sep 30, 2021 Sep 30, 2020 Sep 30, 2019
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Market value added (MVA)1 51,666,585 23,639,530 11,505,581 10,633,576 12,961,673 9,143,600
 
Revenues 1,717,526 1,513,557 1,377,270 1,316,536 1,294,562 1,160,083
Add: Increase (decrease) in deferred revenue 16,974 16,675 15,797 (11,378) 5,821 8,202
Adjusted revenues 1,734,500 1,530,232 1,393,067 1,305,158 1,300,383 1,168,285
Performance Ratio
MVA margin2 2,978.76% 1,544.83% 825.92% 814.73% 996.76% 782.65%
Benchmarks
MVA Margin, Competitors3
Accenture PLC 297.40% 251.01% 213.17% 379.26% 279.96% 233.58%
Adobe Inc. 727.86% 1,241.42% 766.46% 1,287.44% 1,554.19% 1,330.31%
Cadence Design Systems Inc. 1,395.62% 1,927.61% 1,299.21% 1,128.47% 1,241.37%
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. 1,984.37% 816.60% 1,995.27% 3,362.60% 1,272.66%
International Business Machines Corp. 287.93% 179.50% 104.54% 104.85% 68.01%
Intuit Inc. 959.77% 939.31% 782.89% 1,489.94% 1,098.60% 1,034.92%
Microsoft Corp. 1,123.50% 1,016.40% 916.17% 1,148.11% 976.86% 711.95%
Oracle Corp. 704.48% 626.94% 412.88% 514.72% 411.93%
Palantir Technologies Inc. 9,929.53% 2,081.46% 820.15% 1,366.76% 3,910.89%
Palo Alto Networks Inc. 949.23% 726.58% 651.61% 771.73% 434.98% 469.70%
Salesforce Inc. 593.25% 321.51% 417.33% 620.94% 558.53%
ServiceNow Inc. 1,605.68% 1,433.56% 1,026.06% 1,555.49% 2,101.04%
Synopsys Inc. 1,081.63% 1,373.41% 796.87% 1,126.17% 803.94% 470.26%
Workday Inc. 754.19% 578.30% 888.92% 1,185.07% 871.94%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-09-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-09-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-09-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-09-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-09-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-09-30).

1 MVA. See details »

2 2024 Calculation
MVA margin = 100 × MVA ÷ Adjusted revenues
= 100 × 51,666,585 ÷ 1,734,500 = 2,978.76%

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Market Value Added (MVA)
The market value added demonstrates a fluctuating but overall upward trajectory over the analyzed periods. Initially, there was an increase from approximately 9.1 billion US dollars in 2019 to about 12.96 billion in 2020. This was followed by a decline in 2021 to roughly 10.6 billion, then a moderate recovery to approximately 11.5 billion in 2022. Notably, there is a substantial surge in 2023 and 2024, with MVA reaching approximately 23.6 billion and then more than doubling to around 51.7 billion by 2024.
Adjusted Revenues
Adjusted revenues exhibit a consistent and steady growth pattern throughout the period under review. Starting at approximately 1.17 billion US dollars in 2019, revenues increase incrementally each year, reaching approximately 1.73 billion by 2024. This indicates stable operational performance with a recurring increase in revenue generation.
MVA Margin
The margin linking market value added to revenues shows volatility with an overall significant upward trend. The MVA margin begins at 782.65% in 2019 and peaks near 997% in 2020; then it declines to 815% in 2021 and remains relatively stable in 2022 around 826%. From 2023 onwards, there is a dramatic increase to 1544.83%, followed by an almost doubling to 2978.76% in 2024. This indicates that the company's market value is growing disproportionately faster than its revenues, which may reflect increased market confidence, strategic value creation, or other external valuation factors.
Summary Insights
The data indicates strong market performance with significant value creation, especially in the later years. While revenue growth is steady and stable, the dramatic acceleration in market value added and MVA margin suggests that factors beyond revenue growth are contributing substantially to shareholder value. This may be due to improved profitability, enhanced market positioning, innovation, or investor sentiment. The dip observed in 2021 signals some volatility, but the overall trajectory remains positive with substantial gains by 2024.