Fair Isaac Corp. (NYSE:FICO)

The share price demonstrates a pronounced overall upward trend from 2005 through 2024, increasing substantially from $44.30 to $2090.63. Notably, there was a significant decline in the price during 2008, falling from $37.72 in late 2007 to $13.57, likely reflecting wider market conditions. After this low point, the share price recovered and then accelerated rapidly, with particularly sharp increases observed after 2013, culminating in a peak above $2000 in 2024.

The book value per share (BVPS) exhibited relative stability and modest fluctuations from 2005 until around 2016, generally remaining in the range of approximately $11 to $15. However, a marked deterioration occurred beginning in 2018, with BVPS turning negative, dropping from $9.11 in 2018 to -$39.54 by 2024. This shift indicates an erosion of equity value and a potential buildup of liabilities or intangible write-downs impacting the net asset base.

The price-to-book value ratio (P/BV) shows an initial range between about 1.17 to 3.7 from 2005 to 2013, reflecting a relatively moderate valuation premium over book value. From 2014 onward, there is a sharp and continuous increase, peaking at over 40 by 2020. This surge in P/BV is driven primarily by the divergence of the rapidly rising share price against a declining or negative book value per share. The P/BV data for the final years (2021 onwards) is missing, likely due to the negative book values making the ratio undefined or less meaningful.

In summary, the data reveals a company whose market valuation has grown exponentially in recent years, far outpacing the underlying book value metrics. The negative trend in book value per share since 2018 signals potential balance sheet concerns, yet the market continues to ascribe a high valuation. This disparity suggests strong investor confidence based on factors beyond current net asset values, possibly linked to expected future earnings growth, intangibles, or market positioning.

Share Price Trend

Significant growth from $44.30 in 2005 to $2090.63 in 2024, with a sharp dip in 2008 followed by robust recovery and acceleration in later years.

Book Value per Share (BVPS) Trend

Relatively stable around $11-$15 until 2016, followed by steep declines into negative territory from 2018 onwards, reaching approximately -$39.54 by 2024.

Price-to-Book Value Ratio (P/BV) Trend

Moderate levels around 1-4 before 2013, then a pronounced increase reaching above 40 by 2020, driven by rising share price and collapsing book value; ratio becomes undefined or omitted when book value turns negative.

Interpretation

The divergence between soaring share price and declining book value suggests market expectations prioritizing future growth or intangible assets over current net asset values, highlighting a potential risk in balance sheet quality but strong market confidence.