Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.39% per annum.
- ADBE price at the close of July 17, 2026 was $237.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,069.82% per annum.
- ADBE price at the close of July 17, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADBE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 21, 2024
End date: July 17, 2026
a = 7.7013
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0723
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -36.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0723) – 1
= 33.55%
June 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y736)
= Exp(a + b × X736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,068 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7013 + -0.0012 × 1,068 + 2 × 0.0723)
= Exp(6.5223)
= $680.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y736)
= Exp(a + b × X736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,068 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7013 + -0.0012 × 1,068 – 2 × 0.0723)
= Exp(6.2330)
= $509.26
July 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7013 + -0.0012 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0723)
= Exp(5.5853)
= $266.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7013 + -0.0012 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0723)
= Exp(5.2960)
= $199.53
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.39% per annum.
- ADBE price at the close of July 17, 2026 was $237.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 17, 2026
End date: July 17, 2026
a = -6.8364
b = 0.0067
s = 0.0205
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0067) – 1
= 1,069.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0205) – 1
= 8.55%
June 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.8364 + 0.0067 × 1,794 + 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(5.2929)
= $198.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.8364 + 0.0067 × 1,794 – 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(5.2109)
= $183.25
July 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.8364 + 0.0067 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(5.4951)
= $243.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.8364 + 0.0067 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(5.4130)
= $224.31
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,069.82% per annum.
- ADBE price at the close of July 17, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.