Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.60% per annum.
- ADBE price at the close of October 30, 2026 was $250.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.29% per annum.
- ADBE price at the close of October 30, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADBE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 7, 2023
End date: October 30, 2026
a = 7.1846
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0947
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0947) – 1
= 46.08%
November 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y507)
= Exp(a + b × X507 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1846 + -0.0010 × 736 + 2 × 0.0947)
= Exp(6.6665)
= $785.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y507)
= Exp(a + b × X507 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1846 + -0.0010 × 736 – 2 × 0.0947)
= Exp(6.2875)
= $537.82
October 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1846 + -0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0947)
= Exp(5.6204)
= $276.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1846 + -0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0947)
= Exp(5.2415)
= $188.95
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.60% per annum.
- ADBE price at the close of October 30, 2026 was $250.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2026
End date: October 30, 2026
a = 5.0785
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0810
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 9.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0810) – 1
= 38.28%
March 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,094)
= Exp(a + b × X1,094 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,593 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0785 + 0.0002 × 1,593 + 2 × 0.0810)
= Exp(5.6284)
= $278.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,094)
= Exp(a + b × X1,094 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,593 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0785 + 0.0002 × 1,593 – 2 × 0.0810)
= Exp(5.3043)
= $201.21
October 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0785 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0810)
= Exp(5.6847)
= $294.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0785 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0810)
= Exp(5.3606)
= $212.85
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.29% per annum.
- ADBE price at the close of October 30, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.