Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 15.86% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of November 11, 2026 was $128.38 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $16.64 (11.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.28% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of November 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ORCL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 11, 2025
End date: June 23, 2026
a = 5.0693
b = 0.0004
s = 0.1324
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1324) – 1
= 69.80%
December 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y65)
= Exp(a + b × X65 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 92 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0693 + 0.0004 × 92 + 2 × 0.1324)
= Exp(5.3712)
= $215.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y65)
= Exp(a + b × X65 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 92 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0693 + 0.0004 × 92 – 2 × 0.1324)
= Exp(4.8417)
= $126.69
June 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y196)
= Exp(a + b × X196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 286 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0693 + 0.0004 × 286 + 2 × 0.1324)
= Exp(5.4494)
= $232.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y196)
= Exp(a + b × X196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 286 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0693 + 0.0004 × 286 – 2 × 0.1324)
= Exp(4.9200)
= $137.00
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 15.86% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of November 11, 2026 was $128.38 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $16.64 (11.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 15, 2026
End date: November 11, 2026
a = 5.6819
b = -0.0020
s = 0.1190
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -52.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1190) – 1
= 60.97%
April 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y149)
= Exp(a + b × X149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6819 + -0.0020 × 217 + 2 × 0.1190)
= Exp(5.4801)
= $239.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y149)
= Exp(a + b × X149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6819 + -0.0020 × 217 – 2 × 0.1190)
= Exp(5.0041)
= $149.02
November 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6819 + -0.0020 × 427 + 2 × 0.1190)
= Exp(5.0545)
= $156.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6819 + -0.0020 × 427 – 2 × 0.1190)
= Exp(4.5785)
= $97.36
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.28% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of November 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.