Stock Analysis on Net

Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 56.77% per annum.
  • ORCL price at the close of March 26, 2024 was $126.47 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.46 (1.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.31% per annum.
  • ORCL price at the close of March 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.72 (5.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ORCL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: September 22, 2023

a = 2.7545

b = 0.0012

s = 0.0723

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 56.77%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0723) – 1
= 33.52%

May 5, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y784)
= Exp(a + b × X784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7545 + 0.0012 × 1,135 + 2 × 0.0723)
= Exp(4.2972)
= $73.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y784)
= Exp(a + b × X784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7545 + 0.0012 × 1,135 – 2 × 0.0723)
= Exp(4.0081)
= $55.04

September 22, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,640 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7545 + 0.0012 × 1,640 + 2 × 0.0723)
= Exp(4.9193)
= $136.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,640 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7545 + 0.0012 × 1,640 – 2 × 0.0723)
= Exp(4.6301)
= $102.53

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 56.77% per annum.
  • ORCL price at the close of March 26, 2024 was $126.47 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.46 (1.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 31, 2023
End date: March 11, 2024

a = 5.0676

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0488

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.31%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0488) – 1
= 21.54%

May 31, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,052)
= Exp(a + b × X1,052 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,526 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0676 + -0.0002 × 1,526 + 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(4.8478)
= $127.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,052)
= Exp(a + b × X1,052 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,526 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0676 + -0.0002 × 1,526 – 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(4.6527)
= $104.87

March 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0676 + -0.0002 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(4.7886)
= $120.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0676 + -0.0002 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(4.5935)
= $98.84

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.31% per annum.
  • ORCL price at the close of March 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.72 (5.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
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