Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 368.77% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of September 25, 2026 was $137.10 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $14.04 (9.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.24% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of September 25, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ORCL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 13, 2026
End date: September 11, 2026
a = 3.1362
b = 0.0042
s = 0.0558
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0042) – 1
= 368.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0558) – 1
= 25.00%
July 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y271)
= Exp(a + b × X271 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 397 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1362 + 0.0042 × 397 + 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(4.9282)
= $138.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y271)
= Exp(a + b × X271 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 397 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1362 + 0.0042 × 397 – 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(4.7050)
= $110.50
September 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y314)
= Exp(a + b × X314 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1362 + 0.0042 × 457 + 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(5.1821)
= $178.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y314)
= Exp(a + b × X314 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1362 + 0.0042 × 457 – 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(4.9590)
= $142.45
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 368.77% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of September 25, 2026 was $137.10 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $14.04 (9.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 3, 2026
End date: September 25, 2026
a = 4.9917
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0393
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0393) – 1
= 17.00%
August 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y286)
= Exp(a + b × X286 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 418 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9917 + 0.0000 × 418 + 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(5.0730)
= $159.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y286)
= Exp(a + b × X286 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 418 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9917 + 0.0000 × 418 – 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(4.9160)
= $136.45
September 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y324)
= Exp(a + b × X324 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 471 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9917 + 0.0000 × 471 + 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(5.0733)
= $159.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y324)
= Exp(a + b × X324 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 471 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9917 + 0.0000 × 471 – 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(4.9163)
= $136.50
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.24% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of September 25, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.