Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.57% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of August 7, 2026 was $499.99 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $129.68 (35.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.19% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of August 7, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $31.03 (6.62%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MSFT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 24, 2025
End date: April 15, 2026
a = 6.4409
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0518
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0518) – 1
= 23.01%
July 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y64)
= Exp(a + b × X64 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 93 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4409 + -0.0013 × 93 + 2 × 0.0518)
= Exp(6.4203)
= $614.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y64)
= Exp(a + b × X64 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 93 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4409 + -0.0013 × 93 – 2 × 0.0518)
= Exp(6.2132)
= $499.30
April 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y246)
= Exp(a + b × X246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 358 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4409 + -0.0013 × 358 + 2 × 0.0518)
= Exp(6.0665)
= $431.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y246)
= Exp(a + b × X246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 358 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4409 + -0.0013 × 358 – 2 × 0.0518)
= Exp(5.8594)
= $350.53
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.57% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of August 7, 2026 was $499.99 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $129.68 (35.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2026
End date: August 7, 2026
a = 5.8959
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0646
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0646) – 1
= 29.48%
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y197)
= Exp(a + b × X197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 287 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8959 + 0.0003 × 287 + 2 × 0.0646)
= Exp(6.1014)
= $446.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y197)
= Exp(a + b × X197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 287 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8959 + 0.0003 × 287 – 2 × 0.0646)
= Exp(5.8430)
= $344.81
August 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y325)
= Exp(a + b × X325 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 472 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8959 + 0.0003 × 472 + 2 × 0.0646)
= Exp(6.1505)
= $468.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y325)
= Exp(a + b × X325 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 472 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8959 + 0.0003 × 472 – 2 × 0.0646)
= Exp(5.8922)
= $362.19
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.19% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of August 7, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $31.03 (6.62%).