Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.92% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of June 16, 2026 was $393.83 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.82 (0.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.05% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of June 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MSFT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 31, 2025
End date: April 14, 2026
a = 6.4568
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0504
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0504) – 1
= 22.35%
July 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y69)
= Exp(a + b × X69 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 100 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4568 + -0.0014 × 100 + 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(6.4180)
= $612.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y69)
= Exp(a + b × X69 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 100 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4568 + -0.0014 × 100 – 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(6.2163)
= $500.86
April 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y245)
= Exp(a + b × X245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 357 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4568 + -0.0014 × 357 + 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(6.0592)
= $428.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y245)
= Exp(a + b × X245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 357 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4568 + -0.0014 × 357 – 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(5.8575)
= $349.86
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.92% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of June 16, 2026 was $393.83 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.82 (0.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 5, 2026
End date: June 9, 2026
a = 5.7531
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0443
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0443) – 1
= 19.41%
February 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y199)
= Exp(a + b × X199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 289 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7531 + 0.0007 × 289 + 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(6.0437)
= $421.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y199)
= Exp(a + b × X199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 289 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7531 + 0.0007 × 289 – 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(5.8664)
= $352.96
June 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7531 + 0.0007 × 413 + 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(6.1304)
= $459.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7531 + 0.0007 × 413 – 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(5.9530)
= $384.91
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.05% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of June 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.