Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 192.80% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of October 29, 2026 was $530.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 50.21% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of October 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MSFT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 9, 2026
End date: October 29, 2026
a = 4.9686
b = 0.0029
s = 0.0588
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 192.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0588) – 1
= 26.52%
June 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y223)
= Exp(a + b × X223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9686 + 0.0029 × 323 + 2 × 0.0588)
= Exp(6.0369)
= $418.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y223)
= Exp(a + b × X223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9686 + 0.0029 × 323 – 2 × 0.0588)
= Exp(5.8016)
= $330.84
October 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y322)
= Exp(a + b × X322 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 465 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9686 + 0.0029 × 465 + 2 × 0.0588)
= Exp(6.4548)
= $635.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y322)
= Exp(a + b × X322 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 465 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9686 + 0.0029 × 465 – 2 × 0.0588)
= Exp(6.2196)
= $502.49
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 192.80% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of October 29, 2026 was $530.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 3, 2026
End date: October 29, 2026
a = 5.7600
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0193
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 50.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0193) – 1
= 8.03%
August 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y260)
= Exp(a + b × X260 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 378 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7600 + 0.0011 × 378 + 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(6.2200)
= $502.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y260)
= Exp(a + b × X260 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 378 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7600 + 0.0011 × 378 – 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(6.1427)
= $465.32
October 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y322)
= Exp(a + b × X322 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 465 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7600 + 0.0011 × 465 + 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(6.3170)
= $553.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y322)
= Exp(a + b × X322 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 465 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7600 + 0.0011 × 465 – 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(6.2397)
= $512.71
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 50.21% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of October 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.