Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.66% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of February 13, 2026 was $144.42 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $45.82 (24.09%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 95.27% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of February 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WDAY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 7, 2024
End date: January 28, 2026
a = 6.3198
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0505
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0505) – 1
= 22.39%
November 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y939)
= Exp(a + b × X939 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,360 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3198 + -0.0005 × 1,360 + 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(5.6969)
= $297.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y939)
= Exp(a + b × X939 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,360 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3198 + -0.0005 × 1,360 – 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(5.4948)
= $243.42
January 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3198 + -0.0005 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(5.4589)
= $234.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3198 + -0.0005 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(5.2568)
= $191.87
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.66% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of February 13, 2026 was $144.42 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $45.82 (24.09%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 26, 2025
End date: February 13, 2026
a = 20.2636
b = -0.0084
s = 0.0385
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0084) – 1
= -95.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0385) – 1
= 16.64%
December 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(20.2636 + -0.0084 × 1,774 + 2 × 0.0385)
= Exp(5.5129)
= $247.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(20.2636 + -0.0084 × 1,774 – 2 × 0.0385)
= Exp(5.3590)
= $212.51
February 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(20.2636 + -0.0084 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0385)
= Exp(5.1034)
= $164.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(20.2636 + -0.0084 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0385)
= Exp(4.9495)
= $141.10
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 95.27% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of February 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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