Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.62% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of August 22, 2025 was $221.27 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $185.14 (45.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.05% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of August 22, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WDAY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2022
End date: April 17, 2024
a = 4.2890
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0799
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0799) – 1
= 37.66%
May 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y430)
= Exp(a + b × X430 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 623 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2890 + 0.0010 × 623 + 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(5.0903)
= $162.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y430)
= Exp(a + b × X430 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 623 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2890 + 0.0010 × 623 – 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(4.7707)
= $118.00
April 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y917)
= Exp(a + b × X917 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,332 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2890 + 0.0010 × 1,332 + 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(5.8204)
= $337.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y917)
= Exp(a + b × X917 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,332 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2890 + 0.0010 × 1,332 – 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(5.5007)
= $244.87
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.62% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of August 22, 2025 was $221.27 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $185.14 (45.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2023
End date: August 22, 2025
a = 5.4613
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0915
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0915) – 1
= 44.20%
June 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y705)
= Exp(a + b × X705 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,023 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4613 + 0.0000 × 1,023 + 2 × 0.0915)
= Exp(5.6735)
= $291.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y705)
= Exp(a + b × X705 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,023 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4613 + 0.0000 × 1,023 – 2 × 0.0915)
= Exp(5.3075)
= $201.85
August 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4613 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0915)
= Exp(5.6964)
= $297.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4613 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0915)
= Exp(5.3304)
= $206.52
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.05% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of August 22, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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