Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.42% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of November 12, 2026 was $190.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 188.53% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of November 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WDAY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 29, 2023
End date: August 12, 2026
a = 6.2451
b = -0.0007
s = 0.1593
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1593) – 1
= 89.10%
November 29, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y512)
= Exp(a + b × X512 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 744 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2451 + -0.0007 × 744 + 2 × 0.1593)
= Exp(6.0461)
= $422.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y512)
= Exp(a + b × X512 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 744 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2451 + -0.0007 × 744 – 2 × 0.1593)
= Exp(5.4090)
= $223.40
August 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,731 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2451 + -0.0007 × 1,731 + 2 × 0.1593)
= Exp(5.3595)
= $212.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,731 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2451 + -0.0007 × 1,731 – 2 × 0.1593)
= Exp(4.7223)
= $112.43
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.42% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of November 12, 2026 was $190.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 7, 2026
End date: November 12, 2026
a = 0.0787
b = 0.0029
s = 0.0892
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 188.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0892) – 1
= 42.88%
April 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0787 + 0.0029 × 1,604 + 2 × 0.0892)
= Exp(4.9138)
= $136.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0787 + 0.0029 × 1,604 – 2 × 0.0892)
= Exp(4.5570)
= $95.29
November 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0787 + 0.0029 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0892)
= Exp(5.5496)
= $257.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0787 + 0.0029 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0892)
= Exp(5.1927)
= $179.96
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 188.53% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of November 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.