Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.04% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of June 16, 2026 was $126.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.43% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of June 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WDAY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 7, 2025
End date: June 16, 2026
a = 8.6116
b = -0.0021
s = 0.1185
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1185) – 1
= 60.65%
May 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y976)
= Exp(a + b × X976 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,420 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6116 + -0.0021 × 1,420 + 2 × 0.1185)
= Exp(5.9082)
= $368.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y976)
= Exp(a + b × X976 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,420 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6116 + -0.0021 × 1,420 – 2 × 0.1185)
= Exp(5.4341)
= $229.09
June 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6116 + -0.0021 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1185)
= Exp(5.0695)
= $159.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6116 + -0.0021 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1185)
= Exp(4.5955)
= $99.03
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.04% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of June 16, 2026 was $126.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 22, 2025
End date: June 16, 2026
a = 10.4799
b = -0.0032
s = 0.1004
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -68.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1004) – 1
= 49.42%
September 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,070)
= Exp(a + b × X1,070 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,558 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4799 + -0.0032 × 1,558 + 2 × 0.1004)
= Exp(5.7599)
= $317.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,070)
= Exp(a + b × X1,070 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,558 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4799 + -0.0032 × 1,558 – 2 × 0.1004)
= Exp(5.3583)
= $212.37
June 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4799 + -0.0032 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1004)
= Exp(4.9167)
= $136.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4799 + -0.0032 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1004)
= Exp(4.5150)
= $91.38
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.43% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of June 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.