Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.18% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of July 15, 2026 was $141.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3,612.47% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of July 15, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WDAY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 2, 2025
End date: July 10, 2026
a = 8.4725
b = -0.0020
s = 0.1179
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -52.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1179) – 1
= 60.27%
May 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y953)
= Exp(a + b × X953 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,386 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4725 + -0.0020 × 1,386 + 2 × 0.1179)
= Exp(5.9069)
= $367.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y953)
= Exp(a + b × X953 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,386 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4725 + -0.0020 × 1,386 – 2 × 0.1179)
= Exp(5.4352)
= $229.34
July 10, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4725 + -0.0020 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.1179)
= Exp(5.0297)
= $152.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4725 + -0.0020 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.1179)
= Exp(4.5580)
= $95.39
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.18% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of July 15, 2026 was $141.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 18, 2026
End date: July 15, 2026
a = -13.0837
b = 0.0099
s = 0.0334
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0099) – 1
= 3,612.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0334) – 1
= 14.31%
June 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-13.0837 + 0.0099 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(4.7872)
= $119.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-13.0837 + 0.0099 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(4.6534)
= $104.94
July 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-13.0837 + 0.0099 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(5.0546)
= $156.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-13.0837 + 0.0099 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(4.9208)
= $137.11
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3,612.47% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of July 15, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.