Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.42% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of October 29, 2026 was $195.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 210.31% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of October 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WDAY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 29, 2023
End date: August 12, 2026
a = 6.2548
b = -0.0007
s = 0.1593
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1593) – 1
= 89.10%
November 29, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y522)
= Exp(a + b × X522 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2548 + -0.0007 × 758 + 2 × 0.1593)
= Exp(6.0461)
= $422.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y522)
= Exp(a + b × X522 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2548 + -0.0007 × 758 – 2 × 0.1593)
= Exp(5.4090)
= $223.40
August 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2548 + -0.0007 × 1,745 + 2 × 0.1593)
= Exp(5.3595)
= $212.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2548 + -0.0007 × 1,745 – 2 × 0.1593)
= Exp(4.7223)
= $112.43
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.42% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of October 29, 2026 was $195.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 8, 2026
End date: October 29, 2026
a = -0.3002
b = 0.0031
s = 0.0882
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0031) – 1
= 210.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0882) – 1
= 42.28%
April 8, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,111)
= Exp(a + b × X1,111 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,619 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3002 + 0.0031 × 1,619 + 2 × 0.0882)
= Exp(4.8990)
= $134.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,111)
= Exp(a + b × X1,111 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,619 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3002 + 0.0031 × 1,619 – 2 × 0.0882)
= Exp(4.5464)
= $94.29
October 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3002 + 0.0031 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0882)
= Exp(5.5320)
= $252.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3002 + 0.0031 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0882)
= Exp(5.1793)
= $177.56
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 210.31% per annum.
- WDAY price at the close of October 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.