Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.14% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of July 2, 2026 was $137.35 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $17.62 (11.37%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 69.70% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of July 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ACN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 2, 2024
End date: June 17, 2026
a = 7.2979
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0850
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -34.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0850) – 1
= 40.52%
October 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y816)
= Exp(a + b × X816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,184 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2979 + -0.0011 × 1,184 + 2 × 0.0850)
= Exp(6.1134)
= $451.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y816)
= Exp(a + b × X816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,184 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2979 + -0.0011 × 1,184 – 2 × 0.0850)
= Exp(5.7732)
= $321.56
June 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2979 + -0.0011 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0850)
= Exp(5.4006)
= $221.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2979 + -0.0011 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0850)
= Exp(5.0604)
= $157.66
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.14% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of July 2, 2026 was $137.35 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $17.62 (11.37%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 3, 2025
End date: July 2, 2026
a = 10.9415
b = -0.0033
s = 0.0761
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0033) – 1
= -69.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0761) – 1
= 35.57%
December 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,611 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9415 + -0.0033 × 1,611 + 2 × 0.0761)
= Exp(5.8239)
= $338.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,611 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9415 + -0.0033 × 1,611 – 2 × 0.0761)
= Exp(5.5195)
= $249.51
July 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9415 + -0.0033 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0761)
= Exp(5.1336)
= $169.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9415 + -0.0033 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0761)
= Exp(4.8293)
= $125.12
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 69.70% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of July 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.