Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 972.14% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $229.68 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.27 (4.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 83.61% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of October 16, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $19.13 (9.09%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ACN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 18, 2026
End date: September 3, 2026
a = 2.9874
b = 0.0065
s = 0.0383
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0065) – 1
= 972.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0383) – 1
= 16.54%
June 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y191)
= Exp(a + b × X191 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 276 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9874 + 0.0065 × 276 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(4.8578)
= $128.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y191)
= Exp(a + b × X191 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 276 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9874 + 0.0065 × 276 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(4.7047)
= $110.46
September 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y244)
= Exp(a + b × X244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 353 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9874 + 0.0065 × 353 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.3582)
= $212.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y244)
= Exp(a + b × X244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 353 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9874 + 0.0065 × 353 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.2051)
= $182.21
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 972.14% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $229.68 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.27 (4.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 28, 2026
End date: October 7, 2026
a = 4.6107
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0399
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 83.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0399) – 1
= 17.30%
July 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y217)
= Exp(a + b × X217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6107 + 0.0017 × 316 + 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(5.2165)
= $184.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y217)
= Exp(a + b × X217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6107 + 0.0017 × 316 – 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(5.0570)
= $157.12
October 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y267)
= Exp(a + b × X267 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 387 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6107 + 0.0017 × 387 + 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(5.3347)
= $207.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y267)
= Exp(a + b × X267 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 387 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6107 + 0.0017 × 387 – 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(5.1752)
= $176.83
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 83.61% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of October 16, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $19.13 (9.09%).