Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 55.63% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of June 12, 2026 was $184.13 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.39 (4.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 218.12% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of June 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ORCL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 2, 2025
End date: May 1, 2026
a = 8.9589
b = -0.0022
s = 0.1353
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1353) – 1
= 71.82%
July 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,017)
= Exp(a + b × X1,017 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,479 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9589 + -0.0022 × 1,479 + 2 × 0.1353)
= Exp(5.9370)
= $378.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,017)
= Exp(a + b × X1,017 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,479 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9589 + -0.0022 × 1,479 – 2 × 0.1353)
= Exp(5.3958)
= $220.47
May 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9589 + -0.0022 × 1,782 + 2 × 0.1353)
= Exp(5.2625)
= $192.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9589 + -0.0022 × 1,782 – 2 × 0.1353)
= Exp(4.7212)
= $112.31
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 55.63% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of June 12, 2026 was $184.13 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.39 (4.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 4, 2026
End date: June 12, 2026
a = -0.4600
b = 0.0032
s = 0.0843
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 218.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0843) – 1
= 40.07%
February 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4600 + 0.0032 × 1,696 + 2 × 0.0843)
= Exp(5.0858)
= $161.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4600 + 0.0032 × 1,696 – 2 × 0.0843)
= Exp(4.7488)
= $115.44
June 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4600 + 0.0032 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0843)
= Exp(5.4916)
= $242.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4600 + 0.0032 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0843)
= Exp(5.1546)
= $173.23
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 218.12% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of June 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.