Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.48% per annum.
- V price at the close of April 27, 2023 was $229.01 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.14 (1.39%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 75.41% per annum.
- V price at the close of April 27, 2023 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $13.75 (5.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of V price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 9, 2020
End date: January 6, 2023
a = 5.5308
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0591
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0591) – 1
= 26.67%
November 9, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y638)
= Exp(a + b × X638 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 924 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5308 + -0.0001 × 924 + 2 × 0.0591)
= Exp(5.5329)
= $252.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y638)
= Exp(a + b × X638 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 924 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5308 + -0.0001 × 924 – 2 × 0.0591)
= Exp(5.2965)
= $199.63
January 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5308 + -0.0001 × 1,712 + 2 × 0.0591)
= Exp(5.4339)
= $229.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5308 + -0.0001 × 1,712 – 2 × 0.0591)
= Exp(5.1975)
= $180.82
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.48% per annum.
- V price at the close of April 27, 2023 was $229.01 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.14 (1.39%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 15, 2022
End date: February 17, 2023
a = 2.7482
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0314
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 75.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0314) – 1
= 13.40%
September 15, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,599 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7482 + 0.0015 × 1,599 + 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(5.2730)
= $194.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,599 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7482 + 0.0015 × 1,599 – 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(5.1472)
= $171.95
February 17, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,754 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7482 + 0.0015 × 1,754 + 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(5.5116)
= $247.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,754 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7482 + 0.0015 × 1,754 – 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(5.3858)
= $218.29
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 75.41% per annum.
- V price at the close of April 27, 2023 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $13.75 (5.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Check current V price trends.
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