Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 0.04% per annum.
- MA price at the close of April 27, 2023 was $373.67 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 43.33% per annum.
- MA price at the close of April 27, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2020
End date: April 27, 2023
a = 5.8511
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0631
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0631) – 1
= 28.72%
August 5, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y571)
= Exp(a + b × X571 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 828 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8511 + 0.0000 × 828 + 2 × 0.0631)
= Exp(5.9783)
= $394.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y571)
= Exp(a + b × X571 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 828 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8511 + 0.0000 × 828 – 2 × 0.0631)
= Exp(5.7258)
= $306.69
April 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8511 + 0.0000 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0631)
= Exp(5.9794)
= $395.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8511 + 0.0000 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0631)
= Exp(5.7269)
= $307.03
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 0.04% per annum.
- MA price at the close of April 27, 2023 was $373.67 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 15, 2022
End date: April 27, 2023
a = 4.1531
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0494
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 43.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0494) – 1
= 21.83%
September 15, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,599 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1531 + 0.0010 × 1,599 + 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(5.8290)
= $340.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,599 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1531 + 0.0010 × 1,599 – 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(5.6315)
= $279.08
April 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1531 + 0.0010 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(6.0499)
= $424.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1531 + 0.0010 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(5.8524)
= $348.08
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 43.33% per annum.
- MA price at the close of April 27, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
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