Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 862.29% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of June 22, 2026 was $409.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 66,537.94% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of June 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LRCX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 26, 2026
End date: June 22, 2026
a = 3.4505
b = 0.0062
s = 0.0552
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0062) – 1
= 862.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0552) – 1
= 24.72%
March 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y214)
= Exp(a + b × X214 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 311 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4505 + 0.0062 × 311 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(5.4901)
= $242.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y214)
= Exp(a + b × X214 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 311 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4505 + 0.0062 × 311 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(5.2692)
= $194.27
June 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4505 + 0.0062 × 399 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(6.0360)
= $418.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4505 + 0.0062 × 399 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(5.8151)
= $335.33
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 862.29% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of June 22, 2026 was $409.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 5, 2026
End date: June 22, 2026
a = -1.0715
b = 0.0178
s = 0.0362
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0178) – 1
= 66,537.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0362) – 1
= 15.58%
June 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y263)
= Exp(a + b × X263 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 382 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0715 + 0.0178 × 382 + 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(5.8055)
= $332.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y263)
= Exp(a + b × X263 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 382 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0715 + 0.0178 × 382 – 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(5.6607)
= $287.36
June 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0715 + 0.0178 × 399 + 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(6.1084)
= $449.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0715 + 0.0178 × 399 – 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(5.9636)
= $388.99
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 66,537.94% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of June 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.