Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 66.04% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $302.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.64% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of September 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LRCX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 11, 2026
End date: September 21, 2026
a = 7.0795
b = -0.0030
s = 0.0736
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0030) – 1
= -66.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0736) – 1
= 34.21%
June 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y267)
= Exp(a + b × X267 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 388 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0795 + -0.0030 × 388 + 2 × 0.0736)
= Exp(6.0787)
= $436.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y267)
= Exp(a + b × X267 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 388 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0795 + -0.0030 × 388 – 2 × 0.0736)
= Exp(5.7845)
= $325.22
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y336)
= Exp(a + b × X336 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 490 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0795 + -0.0030 × 490 + 2 × 0.0736)
= Exp(5.7770)
= $322.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y336)
= Exp(a + b × X336 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 490 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0795 + -0.0030 × 490 – 2 × 0.0736)
= Exp(5.4827)
= $240.50
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 66.04% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $302.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 16, 2026
End date: September 21, 2026
a = 6.1379
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0620
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0620) – 1
= 28.16%
July 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y290)
= Exp(a + b × X290 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1379 + -0.0009 × 423 + 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(5.8710)
= $354.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y290)
= Exp(a + b × X290 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1379 + -0.0009 × 423 – 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(5.6229)
= $276.69
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y336)
= Exp(a + b × X336 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 490 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1379 + -0.0009 × 490 + 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(5.8091)
= $333.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y336)
= Exp(a + b × X336 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 490 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1379 + -0.0009 × 490 – 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(5.5610)
= $260.07
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.64% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of September 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.