Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.61% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $185.20 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $32.96 (15.11%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.24% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of November 5, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $10.28 (5.26%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LRCX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 2, 2026
End date: November 4, 2026
a = 6.4958
b = -0.0021
s = 0.0955
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0955) – 1
= 46.52%
June 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y193)
= Exp(a + b × X193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 281 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4958 + -0.0021 × 281 + 2 × 0.0955)
= Exp(6.0955)
= $443.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y193)
= Exp(a + b × X193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 281 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4958 + -0.0021 × 281 – 2 × 0.0955)
= Exp(5.7135)
= $302.93
November 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 436 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4958 + -0.0021 × 436 + 2 × 0.0955)
= Exp(5.7693)
= $320.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 436 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4958 + -0.0021 × 436 – 2 × 0.0955)
= Exp(5.3873)
= $218.62
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.61% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $185.20 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $32.96 (15.11%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 30, 2026
End date: November 4, 2026
a = 11.2197
b = -0.0134
s = 0.0494
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0134) – 1
= -99.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0494) – 1
= 21.84%
September 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y276)
= Exp(a + b × X276 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 401 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2197 + -0.0134 × 401 + 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(5.9546)
= $385.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y276)
= Exp(a + b × X276 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 401 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2197 + -0.0134 × 401 – 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(5.7570)
= $316.39
November 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 436 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2197 + -0.0134 × 436 + 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(5.4864)
= $241.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 436 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2197 + -0.0134 × 436 – 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(5.2888)
= $198.11
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.24% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of November 5, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $10.28 (5.26%).