Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 281.24% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of June 8, 2026 was $324.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 153.51% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of June 8, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LRCX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 28, 2025
End date: June 8, 2026
a = -0.9119
b = 0.0037
s = 0.0773
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0037) – 1
= 281.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0773) – 1
= 36.25%
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y955)
= Exp(a + b × X955 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,388 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9119 + 0.0037 × 1,388 + 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(4.3318)
= $76.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y955)
= Exp(a + b × X955 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,388 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9119 + 0.0037 × 1,388 – 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(4.0225)
= $55.84
June 8, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9119 + 0.0037 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(5.9341)
= $377.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9119 + 0.0037 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(5.6247)
= $277.20
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 281.24% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of June 8, 2026 was $324.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 5, 2026
End date: June 8, 2026
a = 1.0520
b = 0.0025
s = 0.0783
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 153.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0783) – 1
= 36.77%
January 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,671 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0520 + 0.0025 × 1,671 + 2 × 0.0783)
= Exp(5.4673)
= $236.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,671 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0520 + 0.0025 × 1,671 – 2 × 0.0783)
= Exp(5.1542)
= $173.15
June 8, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0520 + 0.0025 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0783)
= Exp(5.8598)
= $350.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0520 + 0.0025 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0783)
= Exp(5.5467)
= $256.38
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 153.51% per annum.
- LRCX price at the close of June 8, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.