Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.98% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $149.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 69.78% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.52 (1.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 15, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 7.3753
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0664
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0664) – 1
= 30.44%
May 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,017)
= Exp(a + b × X1,017 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,476 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3753 + -0.0013 × 1,476 + 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(5.5762)
= $264.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,017)
= Exp(a + b × X1,017 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,476 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3753 + -0.0013 × 1,476 – 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(5.3105)
= $202.45
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3753 + -0.0013 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(5.1194)
= $167.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3753 + -0.0013 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0664)
= Exp(4.8537)
= $128.21
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.98% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $149.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 16, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 10.8842
b = -0.0033
s = 0.0480
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0033) – 1
= -69.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0480) – 1
= 21.19%
January 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8842 + -0.0033 × 1,722 + 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(5.3351)
= $207.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8842 + -0.0033 × 1,722 – 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(5.1429)
= $171.21
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8842 + -0.0033 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(4.9974)
= $148.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8842 + -0.0033 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(4.8052)
= $122.14
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 69.78% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.52 (1.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out AMAT and 1,499 other stocks on our new website