Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 79.36% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of September 18, 2026 was $444.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 87.37% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of September 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 17, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 7.8971
b = -0.0043
s = 0.0568
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0043) – 1
= -79.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0568) – 1
= 25.53%
June 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 331 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8971 + -0.0043 × 331 + 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(6.5800)
= $720.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 331 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8971 + -0.0043 × 331 – 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(6.3526)
= $573.98
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 424 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8971 + -0.0043 × 424 + 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(6.1779)
= $482.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 424 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8971 + -0.0043 × 424 – 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(5.9506)
= $383.98
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 79.36% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of September 18, 2026 was $444.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 4, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 8.4495
b = -0.0057
s = 0.0314
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0057) – 1
= -87.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0314) – 1
= 13.38%
August 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y261)
= Exp(a + b × X261 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 379 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4495 + -0.0057 × 379 + 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(6.3638)
= $580.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y261)
= Exp(a + b × X261 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 379 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4495 + -0.0057 × 379 – 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(6.2382)
= $511.94
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 424 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4495 + -0.0057 × 424 + 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(6.1087)
= $449.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 424 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4495 + -0.0057 × 424 – 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(5.9831)
= $396.67
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 87.37% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of September 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.