Stock Analysis on Net

Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.84% per annum.
  • AMAT price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $208.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $82.92 (66.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.97% per annum.
  • AMAT price at the close of March 27, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 11, 2021
End date: May 16, 2023

a = 5.1141

b = -0.0003

s = 0.1443

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.84%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1443) – 1
= 78.10%

January 11, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y451)
= Exp(a + b × X451 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 655 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1141 + -0.0003 × 655 + 2 × 0.1443)
= Exp(5.1969)
= $180.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y451)
= Exp(a + b × X451 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 655 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1141 + -0.0003 × 655 – 2 × 0.1443)
= Exp(4.6197)
= $101.46

May 16, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,041)
= Exp(a + b × X1,041 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,510 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1141 + -0.0003 × 1,510 + 2 × 0.1443)
= Exp(4.9282)
= $138.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,041)
= Exp(a + b × X1,041 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,510 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1141 + -0.0003 × 1,510 – 2 × 0.1443)
= Exp(4.3510)
= $77.56

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.84% per annum.
  • AMAT price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $208.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $82.92 (66.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 29, 2022
End date: March 27, 2024

a = 2.8230

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0763

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 61.97%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0763) – 1
= 35.68%

August 29, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y862)
= Exp(a + b × X862 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8230 + 0.0013 × 1,250 + 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(4.6272)
= $102.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y862)
= Exp(a + b × X862 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8230 + 0.0013 × 1,250 – 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(4.3221)
= $75.34

March 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8230 + 0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(5.3882)
= $218.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8230 + 0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(5.0831)
= $161.27

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.97% per annum.
  • AMAT price at the close of March 27, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
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