Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 64.93% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $319.25 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $24.49 (7.12%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 98.63% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of November 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 11, 2026
End date: November 4, 2026
a = 7.3602
b = -0.0029
s = 0.0826
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0029) – 1
= -64.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0826) – 1
= 39.17%
June 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y225)
= Exp(a + b × X225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 325 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3602 + -0.0029 × 325 + 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(6.5924)
= $729.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y225)
= Exp(a + b × X225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 325 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3602 + -0.0029 × 325 – 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(6.2619)
= $524.22
November 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y326)
= Exp(a + b × X326 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 471 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3602 + -0.0029 × 471 + 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(6.1733)
= $479.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y326)
= Exp(a + b × X326 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 471 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3602 + -0.0029 × 471 – 2 × 0.0826)
= Exp(5.8428)
= $344.73
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 64.93% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $319.25 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $24.49 (7.12%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 29, 2026
End date: November 5, 2026
a = 11.4168
b = -0.0118
s = 0.0582
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0118) – 1
= -98.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0582) – 1
= 26.22%
September 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4168 + -0.0118 × 435 + 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(6.4158)
= $611.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4168 + -0.0118 × 435 – 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(6.1829)
= $484.41
November 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y327)
= Exp(a + b × X327 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 472 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4168 + -0.0118 × 472 + 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(5.9805)
= $395.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y327)
= Exp(a + b × X327 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 472 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4168 + -0.0118 × 472 – 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(5.7477)
= $313.46
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 98.63% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of November 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.