Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 363.15% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of June 22, 2026 was $640.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 228.57% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of June 22, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $92.23 (16.83%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 15, 2025
End date: March 4, 2026
a = 4.5940
b = 0.0042
s = 0.0559
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0042) – 1
= 363.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0559) – 1
= 25.08%
August 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y80)
= Exp(a + b × X80 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 115 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5940 + 0.0042 × 115 + 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(5.1889)
= $179.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y80)
= Exp(a + b × X80 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 115 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5940 + 0.0042 × 115 – 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(4.9651)
= $143.32
March 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y217)
= Exp(a + b × X217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5940 + 0.0042 × 316 + 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(6.0330)
= $416.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y217)
= Exp(a + b × X217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5940 + 0.0042 × 316 – 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(5.8092)
= $333.36
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 363.15% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of June 22, 2026 was $640.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 18, 2025
End date: June 10, 2026
a = 4.8112
b = 0.0033
s = 0.0533
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0033) – 1
= 228.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0533) – 1
= 23.77%
September 18, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y103)
= Exp(a + b × X103 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8112 + 0.0033 × 149 + 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(5.4034)
= $222.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y103)
= Exp(a + b × X103 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8112 + 0.0033 × 149 – 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(5.1902)
= $179.50
June 10, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8112 + 0.0033 × 414 + 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(6.2671)
= $526.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8112 + 0.0033 × 414 – 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(6.0538)
= $425.74
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 228.57% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of June 22, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $92.23 (16.83%).