Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 89.23% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of July 23, 2026 was $171.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 71.79% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of July 23, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of QCOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 22, 2026
End date: July 23, 2026
a = 7.8365
b = -0.0061
s = 0.0479
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0061) – 1
= -89.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0479) – 1
= 21.10%
May 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y264)
= Exp(a + b × X264 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 382 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8365 + -0.0061 × 382 + 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(5.6002)
= $270.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y264)
= Exp(a + b × X264 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 382 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8365 + -0.0061 × 382 – 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(5.4087)
= $223.35
July 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y305)
= Exp(a + b × X305 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8365 + -0.0061 × 444 + 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(5.2217)
= $185.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y305)
= Exp(a + b × X305 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8365 + -0.0061 × 444 – 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(5.0303)
= $152.97
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 89.23% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of July 23, 2026 was $171.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 26, 2026
End date: July 23, 2026
a = 6.6912
b = -0.0035
s = 0.0277
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0035) – 1
= -71.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0277) – 1
= 11.73%
June 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6912 + -0.0035 × 417 + 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(5.3009)
= $200.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6912 + -0.0035 × 417 – 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(5.1900)
= $179.46
July 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y305)
= Exp(a + b × X305 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6912 + -0.0035 × 444 + 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(5.2073)
= $182.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y305)
= Exp(a + b × X305 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 444 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6912 + -0.0035 × 444 – 2 × 0.0277)
= Exp(5.0964)
= $163.43
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 71.79% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of July 23, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.