Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 89.97% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of July 20, 2026 was $170.32 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 71.88% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of July 20, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of QCOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 22, 2026
End date: July 20, 2026
a = 7.9151
b = -0.0063
s = 0.0491
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0063) – 1
= -89.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0491) – 1
= 21.69%
May 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y264)
= Exp(a + b × X264 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 382 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9151 + -0.0063 × 382 + 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(5.6066)
= $272.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y264)
= Exp(a + b × X264 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 382 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9151 + -0.0063 × 382 – 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(5.4103)
= $223.70
July 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 441 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9151 + -0.0063 × 441 + 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(5.2349)
= $187.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 441 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9151 + -0.0063 × 441 – 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(5.0386)
= $154.26
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 89.97% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of July 20, 2026 was $170.32 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 26, 2026
End date: July 20, 2026
a = 6.6951
b = -0.0035
s = 0.0302
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0035) – 1
= -71.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0302) – 1
= 12.85%
June 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6951 + -0.0035 × 417 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.3059)
= $201.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6951 + -0.0035 × 417 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.1850)
= $178.57
July 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 441 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6951 + -0.0035 × 441 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.2225)
= $185.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 441 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6951 + -0.0035 × 441 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.1016)
= $164.28
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 71.88% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of July 20, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.