Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.19% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $146.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 60.92% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of QCOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 13, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 6.4957
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0659
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0659) – 1
= 30.15%
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,015)
= Exp(a + b × X1,015 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,474 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4957 + -0.0008 × 1,474 + 2 × 0.0659)
= Exp(5.4009)
= $221.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,015)
= Exp(a + b × X1,015 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,474 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4957 + -0.0008 × 1,474 – 2 × 0.0659)
= Exp(5.1375)
= $170.28
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4957 + -0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0659)
= Exp(5.1089)
= $165.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4957 + -0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0659)
= Exp(4.8454)
= $127.16
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.19% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $146.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 22, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 9.6208
b = -0.0026
s = 0.0451
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -60.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0451) – 1
= 19.79%
January 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6208 + -0.0026 × 1,728 + 2 × 0.0451)
= Exp(5.2626)
= $192.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6208 + -0.0026 × 1,728 – 2 × 0.0451)
= Exp(5.0820)
= $161.10
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6208 + -0.0026 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0451)
= Exp(5.0129)
= $150.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6208 + -0.0026 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0451)
= Exp(4.8323)
= $125.50
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 60.92% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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