Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 142.26% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of April 18, 2024 was $161.44 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.49 (3.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.95% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of April 18, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.57 (0.96%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of QCOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 7, 2023
End date: April 15, 2024
a = 0.7739
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0379
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 142.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0379) – 1
= 16.36%
September 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,599 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7739 + 0.0024 × 1,599 + 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(4.7261)
= $112.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,599 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7739 + 0.0024 × 1,599 – 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(4.5746)
= $96.98
April 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7739 + 0.0024 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(5.2618)
= $192.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7739 + 0.0024 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(5.1103)
= $165.72
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 142.26% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of April 18, 2024 was $161.44 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.49 (3.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 6, 2024
End date: April 18, 2024
a = 5.2320
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0198
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -1.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0198) – 1
= 8.25%
March 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,780 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2320 + -0.0001 × 1,780 + 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(5.1754)
= $176.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,780 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2320 + -0.0001 × 1,780 – 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(5.0961)
= $163.39
April 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2320 + -0.0001 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(5.1731)
= $176.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2320 + -0.0001 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(5.0938)
= $163.01
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.95% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of April 18, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.57 (0.96%).
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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