Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 865.89% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $194.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,547.30% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of September 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of QCOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 20, 2026
End date: September 17, 2026
a = 2.6845
b = 0.0062
s = 0.0136
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0062) – 1
= 865.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0136) – 1
= 5.57%
August 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y263)
= Exp(a + b × X263 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 381 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6845 + 0.0062 × 381 + 2 × 0.0136)
= Exp(5.0789)
= $160.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y263)
= Exp(a + b × X263 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 381 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6845 + 0.0062 × 381 – 2 × 0.0136)
= Exp(5.0246)
= $152.12
September 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 409 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6845 + 0.0062 × 409 + 2 × 0.0136)
= Exp(5.2528)
= $191.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 409 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6845 + 0.0062 × 409 – 2 × 0.0136)
= Exp(5.1986)
= $181.02
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 865.89% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $194.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 1, 2026
End date: September 17, 2026
a = 2.0954
b = 0.0077
s = 0.0106
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0077) – 1
= 1,547.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0106) – 1
= 4.32%
September 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y271)
= Exp(a + b × X271 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 393 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0954 + 0.0077 × 393 + 2 × 0.0106)
= Exp(5.1332)
= $169.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y271)
= Exp(a + b × X271 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 393 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0954 + 0.0077 × 393 – 2 × 0.0106)
= Exp(5.0909)
= $162.53
September 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 409 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0954 + 0.0077 × 409 + 2 × 0.0106)
= Exp(5.2560)
= $191.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 409 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0954 + 0.0077 × 409 – 2 × 0.0106)
= Exp(5.2137)
= $183.77
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,547.30% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of September 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.