Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 74.13% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $156.75 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $20.14 (14.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 66.42% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of November 5, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $11.86 (7.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of QCOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 7, 2026
End date: August 28, 2026
a = 6.4690
b = -0.0037
s = 0.0724
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0037) – 1
= -74.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0724) – 1
= 33.61%
May 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y191)
= Exp(a + b × X191 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 276 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4690 + -0.0037 × 276 + 2 × 0.0724)
= Exp(5.5914)
= $268.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y191)
= Exp(a + b × X191 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 276 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4690 + -0.0037 × 276 – 2 × 0.0724)
= Exp(5.3016)
= $200.65
August 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y269)
= Exp(a + b × X269 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 389 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4690 + -0.0037 × 389 + 2 × 0.0724)
= Exp(5.1727)
= $176.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y269)
= Exp(a + b × X269 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 389 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4690 + -0.0037 × 389 – 2 × 0.0724)
= Exp(4.8829)
= $132.02
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 74.13% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $156.75 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $20.14 (14.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 16, 2026
End date: October 29, 2026
a = 4.5923
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0519
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 66.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0519) – 1
= 23.06%
July 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y238)
= Exp(a + b × X238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 346 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5923 + 0.0014 × 346 + 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(5.1789)
= $177.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y238)
= Exp(a + b × X238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 346 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5923 + 0.0014 × 346 – 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(4.9713)
= $144.22
October 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y312)
= Exp(a + b × X312 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 451 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5923 + 0.0014 × 451 + 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(5.3254)
= $205.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y312)
= Exp(a + b × X312 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 451 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5923 + 0.0014 × 451 – 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(5.1178)
= $166.97
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 66.42% per annum.
- QCOM price at the close of November 5, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $11.86 (7.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.