Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 208.00% per annum.
- AMD price at the close of August 7, 2026 was $483.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,228.68% per annum.
- AMD price at the close of August 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 6, 2025
End date: August 7, 2026
a = 0.5250
b = 0.0031
s = 0.1892
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0031) – 1
= 208.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1892) – 1
= 113.11%
February 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y878)
= Exp(a + b × X878 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,277 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5250 + 0.0031 × 1,277 + 2 × 0.1892)
= Exp(4.8390)
= $126.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y878)
= Exp(a + b × X878 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,277 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5250 + 0.0031 × 1,277 – 2 × 0.1892)
= Exp(4.0824)
= $59.29
August 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5250 + 0.0031 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1892)
= Exp(6.5249)
= $681.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5250 + 0.0031 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1892)
= Exp(5.7683)
= $319.99
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 208.00% per annum.
- AMD price at the close of August 7, 2026 was $483.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 4, 2026
End date: August 7, 2026
a = -6.4498
b = 0.0071
s = 0.1618
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0071) – 1
= 1,228.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1618) – 1
= 91.05%
February 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,640 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.4498 + 0.0071 × 1,640 + 2 × 0.1618)
= Exp(5.4966)
= $243.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,640 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.4498 + 0.0071 × 1,640 – 2 × 0.1618)
= Exp(4.8493)
= $127.65
August 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.4498 + 0.0071 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1618)
= Exp(6.8006)
= $898.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.4498 + 0.0071 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1618)
= Exp(6.1533)
= $470.26
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,228.68% per annum.
- AMD price at the close of August 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.