Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 207.27% per annum.
- AMD price at the close of September 23, 2026 was $614.61 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.82% per annum.
- AMD price at the close of September 23, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $34.64 (5.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 6, 2025
End date: September 23, 2026
a = 0.6760
b = 0.0031
s = 0.1825
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0031) – 1
= 207.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1825) – 1
= 107.48%
February 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y845)
= Exp(a + b × X845 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6760 + 0.0031 × 1,231 + 2 × 0.1825)
= Exp(4.8268)
= $124.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y845)
= Exp(a + b × X845 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6760 + 0.0031 × 1,231 – 2 × 0.1825)
= Exp(4.0970)
= $60.16
September 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6760 + 0.0031 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1825)
= Exp(6.6537)
= $775.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6760 + 0.0031 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1825)
= Exp(5.9238)
= $373.83
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 207.27% per annum.
- AMD price at the close of September 23, 2026 was $614.61 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 26, 2026
End date: September 23, 2026
a = 6.5193
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0719
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0719) – 1
= 33.30%
May 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,705 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5193 + -0.0002 × 1,705 + 2 × 0.0719)
= Exp(6.3827)
= $591.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,705 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5193 + -0.0002 × 1,705 – 2 × 0.0719)
= Exp(6.0952)
= $443.74
September 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5193 + -0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0719)
= Exp(6.3630)
= $579.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5193 + -0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0719)
= Exp(6.0755)
= $435.07
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.82% per annum.
- AMD price at the close of September 23, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $34.64 (5.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.