Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 206.34% per annum.
- AMD price at the close of November 6, 2026 was $449.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.36% per annum.
- AMD price at the close of November 6, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.53 (0.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 6, 2025
End date: November 4, 2026
a = 0.8262
b = 0.0031
s = 0.1792
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0031) – 1
= 206.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1792) – 1
= 104.77%
February 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y814)
= Exp(a + b × X814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,186 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8262 + 0.0031 × 1,186 + 2 × 0.1792)
= Exp(4.8223)
= $124.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y814)
= Exp(a + b × X814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,186 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8262 + 0.0031 × 1,186 – 2 × 0.1792)
= Exp(4.1056)
= $60.68
November 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8262 + 0.0031 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.1792)
= Exp(6.7730)
= $873.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8262 + 0.0031 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.1792)
= Exp(6.0563)
= $426.79
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 206.34% per annum.
- AMD price at the close of November 6, 2026 was $449.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 20, 2026
End date: November 6, 2026
a = 5.2520
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0941
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0941) – 1
= 45.70%
May 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,136)
= Exp(a + b × X1,136 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2520 + 0.0006 × 1,654 + 2 × 0.0941)
= Exp(6.3913)
= $596.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,136)
= Exp(a + b × X1,136 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2520 + 0.0006 × 1,654 – 2 × 0.0941)
= Exp(6.0150)
= $409.51
November 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2520 + 0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0941)
= Exp(6.4891)
= $657.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2520 + 0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0941)
= Exp(6.1127)
= $451.57
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.36% per annum.
- AMD price at the close of November 6, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.53 (0.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.