Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 186.58% per annum.
- MRVL price at the close of October 2, 2026 was $272.29 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 535.01% per annum.
- MRVL price at the close of October 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MRVL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 28, 2025
End date: October 2, 2026
a = 0.1986
b = 0.0029
s = 0.2240
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 186.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2240) – 1
= 145.02%
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y874)
= Exp(a + b × X874 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,271 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1986 + 0.0029 × 1,271 + 2 × 0.2240)
= Exp(4.3129)
= $74.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y874)
= Exp(a + b × X874 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,271 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1986 + 0.0029 × 1,271 – 2 × 0.2240)
= Exp(3.4167)
= $30.47
October 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1986 + 0.0029 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.2240)
= Exp(5.9080)
= $367.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1986 + 0.0029 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.2240)
= Exp(5.0119)
= $150.18
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 186.58% per annum.
- MRVL price at the close of October 2, 2026 was $272.29 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 15, 2025
End date: October 2, 2026
a = -3.5017
b = 0.0051
s = 0.2185
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0051) – 1
= 535.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2185) – 1
= 139.61%
December 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,054)
= Exp(a + b × X1,054 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,533 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5017 + 0.0051 × 1,533 + 2 × 0.2185)
= Exp(4.6987)
= $109.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,054)
= Exp(a + b × X1,054 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,533 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5017 + 0.0051 × 1,533 – 2 × 0.2185)
= Exp(3.8249)
= $45.83
October 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5017 + 0.0051 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.2185)
= Exp(6.1724)
= $479.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5017 + 0.0051 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.2185)
= Exp(5.2986)
= $200.06
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 535.01% per annum.
- MRVL price at the close of October 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.