Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 95.02% per annum.
- MRVL price at the close of October 9, 2026 was $275.28 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $145.03 (111.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 366.35% per annum.
- MRVL price at the close of October 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MRVL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 1, 2026
End date: August 3, 2026
a = 7.9091
b = -0.0082
s = 0.0998
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0082) – 1
= -95.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0998) – 1
= 49.04%
June 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y181)
= Exp(a + b × X181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 264 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9091 + -0.0082 × 264 + 2 × 0.0998)
= Exp(5.9382)
= $379.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y181)
= Exp(a + b × X181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 264 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9091 + -0.0082 × 264 – 2 × 0.0998)
= Exp(5.5392)
= $254.47
August 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y224)
= Exp(a + b × X224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 327 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9091 + -0.0082 × 327 + 2 × 0.0998)
= Exp(5.4203)
= $225.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y224)
= Exp(a + b × X224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 327 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9091 + -0.0082 × 327 – 2 × 0.0998)
= Exp(5.0213)
= $151.60
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 95.02% per annum.
- MRVL price at the close of October 9, 2026 was $275.28 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $145.03 (111.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 15, 2026
End date: October 9, 2026
a = 3.9396
b = 0.0042
s = 0.0661
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0042) – 1
= 366.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0661) – 1
= 30.25%
July 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y211)
= Exp(a + b × X211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 308 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9396 + 0.0042 × 308 + 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(5.3711)
= $215.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y211)
= Exp(a + b × X211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 308 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9396 + 0.0042 × 308 – 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(5.1068)
= $165.14
October 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y272)
= Exp(a + b × X272 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 394 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9396 + 0.0042 × 394 + 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(5.7339)
= $309.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y272)
= Exp(a + b × X272 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 394 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9396 + 0.0042 × 394 – 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(5.4696)
= $237.36
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 366.35% per annum.
- MRVL price at the close of October 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.