Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 300.71% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of October 12, 2026 was $101.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.62% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of October 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INTC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: October 12, 2026
a = -2.0516
b = 0.0038
s = 0.1921
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 300.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1921) – 1
= 115.61%
April 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y872)
= Exp(a + b × X872 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,269 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0516 + 0.0038 × 1,269 + 2 × 0.1921)
= Exp(3.1584)
= $23.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y872)
= Exp(a + b × X872 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,269 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0516 + 0.0038 × 1,269 – 2 × 0.1921)
= Exp(2.3901)
= $10.91
October 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0516 + 0.0038 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1921)
= Exp(5.2729)
= $194.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0516 + 0.0038 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1921)
= Exp(4.5045)
= $90.43
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 300.71% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of October 12, 2026 was $101.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2026
End date: October 12, 2026
a = 6.2937
b = -0.0009
s = 0.1159
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1159) – 1
= 59.00%
May 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2937 + -0.0009 × 1,665 + 2 × 0.1159)
= Exp(4.9877)
= $146.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2937 + -0.0009 × 1,665 – 2 × 0.1159)
= Exp(4.5239)
= $92.20
October 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2937 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1159)
= Exp(4.8399)
= $126.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2937 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1159)
= Exp(4.3762)
= $79.53
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.62% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of October 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.