Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 334.51% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of August 13, 2026 was $104.56 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 58.01% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of August 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INTC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: August 13, 2026
a = -2.6052
b = 0.0040
s = 0.1923
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0040) – 1
= 334.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1923) – 1
= 115.77%
April 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,327 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6052 + 0.0040 × 1,327 + 2 × 0.1923)
= Exp(3.1202)
= $22.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,327 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6052 + 0.0040 × 1,327 – 2 × 0.1923)
= Exp(2.3512)
= $10.50
August 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6052 + 0.0040 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1923)
= Exp(5.1165)
= $166.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6052 + 0.0040 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1923)
= Exp(4.3475)
= $77.28
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 334.51% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of August 13, 2026 was $104.56 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2026
End date: August 13, 2026
a = 8.9255
b = -0.0024
s = 0.0996
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0024) – 1
= -58.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0996) – 1
= 48.96%
May 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,724 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9255 + -0.0024 × 1,724 + 2 × 0.0996)
= Exp(5.0257)
= $152.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,724 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9255 + -0.0024 × 1,724 – 2 × 0.0996)
= Exp(4.6272)
= $102.22
August 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9255 + -0.0024 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0996)
= Exp(4.7903)
= $120.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9255 + -0.0024 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0996)
= Exp(4.3918)
= $80.78
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 58.01% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of August 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.