Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 56.06% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $20.34 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.28 (6.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.89% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INTC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 15, 2023
End date: February 10, 2025
a = 6.8185
b = -0.0023
s = 0.1205
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1205) – 1
= 61.95%
November 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y893)
= Exp(a + b × X893 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8185 + -0.0023 × 1,294 + 2 × 0.1205)
= Exp(4.1440)
= $63.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y893)
= Exp(a + b × X893 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8185 + -0.0023 × 1,294 – 2 × 0.1205)
= Exp(3.6619)
= $38.93
February 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8185 + -0.0023 × 1,747 + 2 × 0.1205)
= Exp(3.1233)
= $22.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8185 + -0.0023 × 1,747 – 2 × 0.1205)
= Exp(2.6412)
= $14.03
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 56.06% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $20.34 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.28 (6.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 3.0309
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0899
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0899) – 1
= 43.25%
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,555 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0309 + 0.0000 × 1,555 + 2 × 0.0899)
= Exp(3.2484)
= $25.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,555 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0309 + 0.0000 × 1,555 – 2 × 0.0899)
= Exp(2.8890)
= $17.98
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0309 + 0.0000 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0899)
= Exp(3.2550)
= $25.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0309 + 0.0000 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0899)
= Exp(2.8956)
= $18.09
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.89% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out INTC and 1,499 other stocks on our new website