Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 303.65% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of October 7, 2026 was $113.12 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.65% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of October 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INTC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: October 7, 2026
a = -2.0999
b = 0.0038
s = 0.1917
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 303.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1917) – 1
= 115.26%
April 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y875)
= Exp(a + b × X875 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,274 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0999 + 0.0038 × 1,274 + 2 × 0.1917)
= Exp(3.1539)
= $23.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y875)
= Exp(a + b × X875 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,274 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0999 + 0.0038 × 1,274 – 2 × 0.1917)
= Exp(2.3872)
= $10.88
October 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0999 + 0.0038 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1917)
= Exp(5.2604)
= $192.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.0999 + 0.0038 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1917)
= Exp(4.4937)
= $89.45
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 303.65% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of October 7, 2026 was $113.12 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2026
End date: October 7, 2026
a = 6.3670
b = -0.0010
s = 0.1173
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1173) – 1
= 59.88%
May 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,670 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3670 + -0.0010 × 1,670 + 2 × 0.1173)
= Exp(4.9925)
= $147.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,670 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3670 + -0.0010 × 1,670 – 2 × 0.1173)
= Exp(4.5232)
= $92.13
October 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3670 + -0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1173)
= Exp(4.8431)
= $126.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3670 + -0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1173)
= Exp(4.3739)
= $79.35
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.65% per annum.
- INTC price at the close of October 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.