Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 227.41% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of June 24, 2026 was $382.07 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $28.80 (7.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.76% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of June 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVGO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2026
End date: June 4, 2026
a = 4.8690
b = 0.0032
s = 0.0704
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 227.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0704) – 1
= 32.53%
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y174)
= Exp(a + b × X174 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8690 + 0.0032 × 256 + 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(5.8417)
= $344.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y174)
= Exp(a + b × X174 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8690 + 0.0032 × 256 – 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(5.5601)
= $259.85
June 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y258)
= Exp(a + b × X258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 377 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8690 + 0.0032 × 377 + 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(6.2349)
= $510.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y258)
= Exp(a + b × X258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 377 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8690 + 0.0032 × 377 – 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(5.9533)
= $385.01
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 227.41% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of June 24, 2026 was $382.07 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $28.80 (7.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 17, 2026
End date: June 24, 2026
a = 6.3322
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0532
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -26.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0532) – 1
= 23.69%
April 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y225)
= Exp(a + b × X225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 329 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3322 + -0.0009 × 329 + 2 × 0.0532)
= Exp(6.1578)
= $472.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y225)
= Exp(a + b × X225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 329 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3322 + -0.0009 × 329 – 2 × 0.0532)
= Exp(5.9451)
= $381.90
June 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y271)
= Exp(a + b × X271 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 397 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3322 + -0.0009 × 397 + 2 × 0.0532)
= Exp(6.0998)
= $445.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y271)
= Exp(a + b × X271 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 397 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3322 + -0.0009 × 397 – 2 × 0.0532)
= Exp(5.8871)
= $360.37
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.76% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of June 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.