Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.33% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $328.75 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 53.77% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of October 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVGO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2026
End date: October 16, 2026
a = 6.3250
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0486
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0486) – 1
= 21.48%
April 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y166)
= Exp(a + b × X166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3250 + -0.0011 × 243 + 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(6.1523)
= $469.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y166)
= Exp(a + b × X166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3250 + -0.0011 × 243 – 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(5.9578)
= $386.75
October 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3250 + -0.0011 × 420 + 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(5.9557)
= $385.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3250 + -0.0011 × 420 – 2 × 0.0486)
= Exp(5.7612)
= $317.72
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.33% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $328.75 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 3, 2026
End date: October 16, 2026
a = 6.7177
b = -0.0021
s = 0.0436
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0436) – 1
= 19.03%
August 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y236)
= Exp(a + b × X236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 346 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7177 + -0.0021 × 346 + 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(6.0734)
= $434.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y236)
= Exp(a + b × X236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 346 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7177 + -0.0021 × 346 – 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(5.8992)
= $364.75
October 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7177 + -0.0021 × 420 + 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(5.9170)
= $371.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7177 + -0.0021 × 420 – 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(5.7428)
= $311.94
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 53.77% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of October 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.