Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.13% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of November 6, 2026 was $293.69 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.86 (2.93%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.60% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of November 6, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.06 (0.36%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVGO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2026
End date: November 6, 2026
a = 6.3741
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0506
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0506) – 1
= 22.43%
April 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y166)
= Exp(a + b × X166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3741 + -0.0013 × 243 + 2 × 0.0506)
= Exp(6.1663)
= $476.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y166)
= Exp(a + b × X166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3741 + -0.0013 × 243 – 2 × 0.0506)
= Exp(5.9640)
= $389.16
November 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y304)
= Exp(a + b × X304 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 441 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3741 + -0.0013 × 441 + 2 × 0.0506)
= Exp(5.9146)
= $370.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y304)
= Exp(a + b × X304 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 441 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3741 + -0.0013 × 441 – 2 × 0.0506)
= Exp(5.7123)
= $302.55
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.13% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of November 6, 2026 was $293.69 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.86 (2.93%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 3, 2026
End date: November 6, 2026
a = 6.7828
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0440
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0440) – 1
= 19.25%
August 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y236)
= Exp(a + b × X236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 346 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7828 + -0.0023 × 346 + 2 × 0.0440)
= Exp(6.0795)
= $436.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y236)
= Exp(a + b × X236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 346 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7828 + -0.0023 × 346 – 2 × 0.0440)
= Exp(5.9034)
= $366.28
November 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y304)
= Exp(a + b × X304 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 441 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7828 + -0.0023 × 441 + 2 × 0.0440)
= Exp(5.8622)
= $351.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y304)
= Exp(a + b × X304 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 441 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7828 + -0.0023 × 441 – 2 × 0.0440)
= Exp(5.6861)
= $294.75
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.60% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of November 6, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.06 (0.36%).