Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.27% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of September 22, 2026 was $364.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.66% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of September 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVGO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2026
End date: September 22, 2026
a = 6.3243
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0511
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0511) – 1
= 22.69%
April 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y166)
= Exp(a + b × X166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3243 + -0.0011 × 243 + 2 × 0.0511)
= Exp(6.1572)
= $472.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y166)
= Exp(a + b × X166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3243 + -0.0011 × 243 – 2 × 0.0511)
= Exp(5.9527)
= $384.79
September 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y271)
= Exp(a + b × X271 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 396 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3243 + -0.0011 × 396 + 2 × 0.0511)
= Exp(5.9876)
= $398.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y271)
= Exp(a + b × X271 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 396 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3243 + -0.0011 × 396 – 2 × 0.0511)
= Exp(5.7831)
= $324.77
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.27% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of September 22, 2026 was $364.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 4, 2026
End date: September 22, 2026
a = 7.3614
b = -0.0039
s = 0.0386
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0039) – 1
= -75.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0386) – 1
= 16.69%
August 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y237)
= Exp(a + b × X237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 347 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3614 + -0.0039 × 347 + 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(6.0952)
= $443.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y237)
= Exp(a + b × X237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 347 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3614 + -0.0039 × 347 – 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.9408)
= $380.25
September 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y271)
= Exp(a + b × X271 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 396 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3614 + -0.0039 × 396 + 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.9055)
= $367.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y271)
= Exp(a + b × X271 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 396 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3614 + -0.0039 × 396 – 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.7511)
= $314.55
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.66% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of September 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.