Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 89.97% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of March 11, 2026 was $341.57 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.95 (0.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.65% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of March 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVGO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 26, 2022
End date: January 16, 2026
a = 2.8325
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0995
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 89.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0995) – 1
= 48.86%
August 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y368)
= Exp(a + b × X368 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 532 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8325 + 0.0018 × 532 + 2 × 0.0995)
= Exp(3.9667)
= $52.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y368)
= Exp(a + b × X368 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 532 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8325 + 0.0018 × 532 – 2 × 0.0995)
= Exp(3.5689)
= $35.48
January 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8325 + 0.0018 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0995)
= Exp(6.1451)
= $466.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8325 + 0.0018 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0995)
= Exp(5.7472)
= $313.31
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 89.97% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of March 11, 2026 was $341.57 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.95 (0.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 5, 2025
End date: March 11, 2026
a = 6.4334
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0541
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0541) – 1
= 24.17%
September 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,126)
= Exp(a + b × X1,126 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,638 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4334 + -0.0003 × 1,638 + 2 × 0.0541)
= Exp(5.9858)
= $397.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,126)
= Exp(a + b × X1,126 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,638 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4334 + -0.0003 × 1,638 – 2 × 0.0541)
= Exp(5.7693)
= $320.32
March 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4334 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0541)
= Exp(5.9223)
= $373.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4334 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0541)
= Exp(5.7059)
= $300.62
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.65% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of March 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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