Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.55% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of August 7, 2026 was $427.76 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $15.06 (3.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 99.27% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of August 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVGO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 17, 2026
End date: August 3, 2026
a = 6.4388
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0481
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0481) – 1
= 21.19%
April 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y225)
= Exp(a + b × X225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 329 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4388 + -0.0012 × 329 + 2 × 0.0481)
= Exp(6.1528)
= $470.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y225)
= Exp(a + b × X225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 329 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4388 + -0.0012 × 329 – 2 × 0.0481)
= Exp(5.9606)
= $387.84
August 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4388 + -0.0012 × 437 + 2 × 0.0481)
= Exp(6.0274)
= $414.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4388 + -0.0012 × 437 – 2 × 0.0481)
= Exp(5.8352)
= $342.12
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.55% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of August 7, 2026 was $427.76 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $15.06 (3.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 23, 2026
End date: August 7, 2026
a = 5.1649
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0327
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 99.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0327) – 1
= 13.96%
June 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y270)
= Exp(a + b × X270 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 396 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1649 + 0.0019 × 396 + 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(5.9783)
= $394.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y270)
= Exp(a + b × X270 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 396 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1649 + 0.0019 × 396 – 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(5.8476)
= $346.41
August 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 441 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1649 + 0.0019 × 441 + 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(6.0633)
= $429.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 441 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1649 + 0.0019 × 441 – 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(5.9326)
= $377.14
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 99.27% per annum.
- AVGO price at the close of August 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.