Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.41% per annum.
- MU price at the close of October 23, 2026 was $877.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 98.49% per annum.
- MU price at the close of October 23, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 26, 2026
End date: October 23, 2026
a = 6.9072
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0887
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0887) – 1
= 42.57%
May 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y174)
= Exp(a + b × X174 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9072 + -0.0001 × 253 + 2 × 0.0887)
= Exp(7.0605)
= $1,164.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y174)
= Exp(a + b × X174 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9072 + -0.0001 × 253 – 2 × 0.0887)
= Exp(6.7058)
= $817.13
October 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9072 + -0.0001 × 403 + 2 × 0.0887)
= Exp(7.0462)
= $1,148.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9072 + -0.0001 × 403 – 2 × 0.0887)
= Exp(6.6915)
= $805.57
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.41% per annum.
- MU price at the close of October 23, 2026 was $877.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 1, 2026
End date: October 23, 2026
a = 11.3868
b = -0.0115
s = 0.0276
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0115) – 1
= -98.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0276) – 1
= 11.68%
October 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y263)
= Exp(a + b × X263 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 381 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3868 + -0.0115 × 381 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(7.0651)
= $1,170.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y263)
= Exp(a + b × X263 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 381 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3868 + -0.0115 × 381 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(6.9546)
= $1,047.94
October 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3868 + -0.0115 × 403 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(6.8124)
= $909.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3868 + -0.0115 × 403 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(6.7018)
= $813.91
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 98.49% per annum.
- MU price at the close of October 23, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.