Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.93% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of September 30, 2026 was $396.71 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $16.86 (4.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,062.89% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of September 30, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 30, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 6.3358
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0329
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0329) – 1
= 14.07%
April 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y186)
= Exp(a + b × X186 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 269 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3358 + -0.0011 × 269 + 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(6.1072)
= $449.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y186)
= Exp(a + b × X186 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 269 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3358 + -0.0011 × 269 – 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(5.9756)
= $393.71
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 410 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3358 + -0.0011 × 410 + 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(5.9529)
= $384.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 410 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3358 + -0.0011 × 410 – 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(5.8213)
= $337.41
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.93% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of September 30, 2026 was $396.71 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $16.86 (4.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 14, 2026
End date: September 30, 2026
a = 3.1603
b = 0.0067
s = 0.0126
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0067) – 1
= 1,062.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0126) – 1
= 5.17%
September 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 406 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1603 + 0.0067 × 406 + 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(5.9146)
= $370.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 406 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1603 + 0.0067 × 406 – 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(5.8642)
= $352.19
September 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1603 + 0.0067 × 422 + 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(6.0222)
= $412.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1603 + 0.0067 × 422 – 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(5.9717)
= $392.18
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,062.89% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of September 30, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.