Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 211.27% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of June 16, 2026 was $416.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $26.56 (6.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 154.52% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of June 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 7, 2025
End date: March 4, 2026
a = 4.9082
b = 0.0031
s = 0.0409
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0031) – 1
= 211.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0409) – 1
= 17.76%
October 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y107)
= Exp(a + b × X107 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9082 + 0.0031 × 155 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(5.4721)
= $237.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y107)
= Exp(a + b × X107 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9082 + 0.0031 × 155 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(5.3086)
= $202.07
March 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y208)
= Exp(a + b × X208 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 303 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9082 + 0.0031 × 303 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(5.9325)
= $377.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y208)
= Exp(a + b × X208 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 303 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9082 + 0.0031 × 303 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(5.7690)
= $320.23
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 211.27% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of June 16, 2026 was $416.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $26.56 (6.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 7, 2025
End date: June 16, 2026
a = 5.0201
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0559
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 154.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0559) – 1
= 25.06%
October 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y107)
= Exp(a + b × X107 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0201 + 0.0026 × 155 + 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(5.5286)
= $251.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y107)
= Exp(a + b × X107 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0201 + 0.0026 × 155 – 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(5.3050)
= $201.33
June 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y280)
= Exp(a + b × X280 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0201 + 0.0026 × 407 + 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(6.1736)
= $479.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y280)
= Exp(a + b × X280 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0201 + 0.0026 × 407 – 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(5.9499)
= $383.73
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 154.52% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of June 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.