Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.45% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of October 14, 2026 was $403.57 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $23.56 (6.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 320.05% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of October 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 23, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 6.2855
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0357
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0357) – 1
= 15.36%
April 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y181)
= Exp(a + b × X181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 262 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2855 + -0.0010 × 262 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(6.1065)
= $448.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y181)
= Exp(a + b × X181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 262 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2855 + -0.0010 × 262 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(5.9636)
= $389.02
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 410 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2855 + -0.0010 × 410 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(5.9650)
= $389.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 410 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2855 + -0.0010 × 410 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(5.8222)
= $337.70
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.45% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of October 14, 2026 was $403.57 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $23.56 (6.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 28, 2026
End date: October 13, 2026
a = 4.3252
b = 0.0039
s = 0.0215
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0039) – 1
= 320.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0215) – 1
= 8.97%
August 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y269)
= Exp(a + b × X269 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 389 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3252 + 0.0039 × 389 + 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(5.8978)
= $364.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y269)
= Exp(a + b × X269 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 389 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3252 + 0.0039 × 389 – 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(5.8118)
= $334.23
October 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3252 + 0.0039 × 435 + 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(6.0786)
= $436.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3252 + 0.0039 × 435 – 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(5.9927)
= $400.50
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 320.05% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of October 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.