Stock Analysis on Net

Analog Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:ADI)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.58% per annum.
  • ADI price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $193.33 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $11.70 (6.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.64% per annum.
  • ADI price at the close of March 27, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 30, 2020
End date: January 31, 2023

a = 5.1005

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0652

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.58%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0652) – 1
= 29.80%

December 30, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y444)
= Exp(a + b × X444 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 643 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1005 + 0.0000 × 643 + 2 × 0.0652)
= Exp(5.2207)
= $185.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y444)
= Exp(a + b × X444 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 643 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1005 + 0.0000 × 643 – 2 × 0.0652)
= Exp(4.9599)
= $142.58

January 31, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y968)
= Exp(a + b × X968 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,405 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1005 + 0.0000 × 1,405 + 2 × 0.0652)
= Exp(5.2086)
= $182.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y968)
= Exp(a + b × X968 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,405 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1005 + 0.0000 × 1,405 – 2 × 0.0652)
= Exp(4.9478)
= $140.87

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.58% per annum.
  • ADI price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $193.33 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $11.70 (6.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 20, 2022
End date: March 27, 2024

a = 4.7153

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0649

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.64%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0649) – 1
= 29.65%

January 20, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y710)
= Exp(a + b × X710 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,029 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7153 + 0.0003 × 1,029 + 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(5.1556)
= $173.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y710)
= Exp(a + b × X710 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,029 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7153 + 0.0003 × 1,029 – 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(4.8959)
= $133.74

March 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7153 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(5.3961)
= $220.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7153 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(5.1364)
= $170.10

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.64% per annum.
  • ADI price at the close of March 27, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
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