Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 41.62% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of July 31, 2026 was $367.41 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.12% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of July 31, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2026
End date: July 31, 2026
a = 6.5962
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0351
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -41.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0351) – 1
= 15.06%
May 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 366 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5962 + -0.0015 × 366 + 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(6.1267)
= $457.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 366 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5962 + -0.0015 × 366 – 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(5.9864)
= $397.99
July 31, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y311)
= Exp(a + b × X311 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 452 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5962 + -0.0015 × 452 + 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(5.9999)
= $403.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y311)
= Exp(a + b × X311 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 452 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5962 + -0.0015 × 452 – 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(5.8596)
= $350.59
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 41.62% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of July 31, 2026 was $367.41 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 12, 2026
End date: July 31, 2026
a = 7.3129
b = -0.0031
s = 0.0269
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -68.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0269) – 1
= 11.35%
June 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3129 + -0.0031 × 403 + 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(6.1045)
= $447.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3129 + -0.0031 × 403 – 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(5.9970)
= $402.22
July 31, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y311)
= Exp(a + b × X311 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 452 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3129 + -0.0031 × 452 + 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(5.9511)
= $384.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y311)
= Exp(a + b × X311 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 452 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3129 + -0.0031 × 452 – 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(5.8436)
= $345.00
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.12% per annum.
- ADI price at the close of July 31, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.