Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 73.37% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of October 2, 2026 was $233.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 432.68% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of October 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NVDA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 23, 2026
End date: October 2, 2026
a = 4.8079
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0318
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 73.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0318) – 1
= 13.55%
June 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y217)
= Exp(a + b × X217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8079 + 0.0015 × 316 + 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(5.3479)
= $210.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y217)
= Exp(a + b × X217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8079 + 0.0015 × 316 – 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(5.2208)
= $185.08
October 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y288)
= Exp(a + b × X288 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8079 + 0.0015 × 417 + 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(5.5001)
= $244.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y288)
= Exp(a + b × X288 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8079 + 0.0015 × 417 – 2 × 0.0318)
= Exp(5.3730)
= $215.52
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 73.37% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of October 2, 2026 was $233.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 14, 2026
End date: October 2, 2026
a = 3.5412
b = 0.0046
s = 0.0148
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0046) – 1
= 432.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0148) – 1
= 6.09%
September 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y274)
= Exp(a + b × X274 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5412 + 0.0046 × 399 + 2 × 0.0148)
= Exp(5.3993)
= $221.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y274)
= Exp(a + b × X274 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5412 + 0.0046 × 399 – 2 × 0.0148)
= Exp(5.3402)
= $208.55
October 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y288)
= Exp(a + b × X288 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5412 + 0.0046 × 417 + 2 × 0.0148)
= Exp(5.4818)
= $240.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y288)
= Exp(a + b × X288 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5412 + 0.0046 × 417 – 2 × 0.0148)
= Exp(5.4227)
= $226.48
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 432.68% per annum.
- NVDA price at the close of October 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.