Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 181.81% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $278.40 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.90 (0.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.86% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of August 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TXN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 24, 2025
End date: July 16, 2026
a = 4.6758
b = 0.0028
s = 0.0891
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 181.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0891) – 1
= 42.82%
October 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y81)
= Exp(a + b × X81 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 115 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6758 + 0.0028 × 115 + 2 × 0.0891)
= Exp(5.1805)
= $177.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y81)
= Exp(a + b × X81 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 115 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6758 + 0.0028 × 115 – 2 × 0.0891)
= Exp(4.8240)
= $124.47
July 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y261)
= Exp(a + b × X261 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 380 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6758 + 0.0028 × 380 + 2 × 0.0891)
= Exp(5.9326)
= $377.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y261)
= Exp(a + b × X261 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 380 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6758 + 0.0028 × 380 – 2 × 0.0891)
= Exp(5.5762)
= $264.08
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 181.81% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $278.40 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.90 (0.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 11, 2026
End date: August 6, 2026
a = 6.0503
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0366
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0366) – 1
= 15.76%
May 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y216)
= Exp(a + b × X216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 314 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0503 + -0.0010 × 314 + 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(5.8060)
= $332.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y216)
= Exp(a + b × X216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 314 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0503 + -0.0010 × 314 – 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(5.6597)
= $287.06
August 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y276)
= Exp(a + b × X276 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 401 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0503 + -0.0010 × 401 + 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(5.7181)
= $304.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y276)
= Exp(a + b × X276 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 401 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0503 + -0.0010 × 401 – 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(5.5717)
= $262.89
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.86% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of August 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.