Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 146.21% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of January 26, 2026 was $196.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 83.92% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of January 26, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TXN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 29, 2025
End date: January 26, 2026
a = 0.7675
b = 0.0025
s = 0.0302
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 146.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0302) – 1
= 12.82%
October 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7675 + 0.0025 × 1,736 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.1132)
= $166.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7675 + 0.0025 × 1,736 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.9926)
= $147.32
January 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7675 + 0.0025 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.3329)
= $207.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7675 + 0.0025 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.2123)
= $183.51
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 146.21% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of January 26, 2026 was $196.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 2, 2025
End date: January 26, 2026
a = 2.2102
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0264
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 83.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0264) – 1
= 11.15%
December 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2102 + 0.0017 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.0264)
= Exp(5.2179)
= $184.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2102 + 0.0017 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.0264)
= Exp(5.1122)
= $166.03
January 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2102 + 0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0264)
= Exp(5.3097)
= $202.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2102 + 0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0264)
= Exp(5.2040)
= $181.99
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 83.92% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of January 26, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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