Stock Analysis on Net

Texas Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ:TXN)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.34% per annum.
  • TXN price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $172.87 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.43% per annum.
  • TXN price at the close of March 27, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TXN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 16, 2021
End date: March 26, 2024

a = 5.3489

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0552

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.34%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0552) – 1
= 24.70%

March 16, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y495)
= Exp(a + b × X495 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 719 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3489 + -0.0002 × 719 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(5.3512)
= $210.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y495)
= Exp(a + b × X495 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 719 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3489 + -0.0002 × 719 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(5.1305)
= $169.10

March 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3489 + -0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(5.1850)
= $178.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3489 + -0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(4.9643)
= $143.20

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.34% per annum.
  • TXN price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $172.87 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 13, 2023
End date: March 27, 2024

a = 3.4235

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0359

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 41.43%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0359) – 1
= 15.43%

October 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4235 + 0.0009 × 1,660 + 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(5.0718)
= $159.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4235 + 0.0009 × 1,660 – 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(4.9283)
= $138.14

March 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4235 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(5.2294)
= $186.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4235 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(5.0859)
= $161.73

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.43% per annum.
  • TXN price at the close of March 27, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Stock Price Trends
  • Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
  • Check the power of mathematical statistics.
  • Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.

Check out TXN and 1,499 other stocks on our new website