Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.18% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $278.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.22 (0.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 150.97% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of November 5, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $8.19 (2.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TXN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 30, 2026
End date: October 1, 2026
a = 5.9180
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0437
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -29.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0437) – 1
= 19.11%
April 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y145)
= Exp(a + b × X145 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9180 + -0.0009 × 211 + 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(5.8060)
= $332.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y145)
= Exp(a + b × X145 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9180 + -0.0009 × 211 – 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(5.6311)
= $278.97
October 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y251)
= Exp(a + b × X251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 365 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9180 + -0.0009 × 365 + 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(5.6605)
= $287.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y251)
= Exp(a + b × X251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 365 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9180 + -0.0009 × 365 – 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(5.4855)
= $241.18
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.18% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $278.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.22 (0.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 24, 2026
End date: November 4, 2026
a = 4.7051
b = 0.0025
s = 0.0282
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 150.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0282) – 1
= 11.94%
August 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y224)
= Exp(a + b × X224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 327 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7051 + 0.0025 × 327 + 2 × 0.0282)
= Exp(5.5859)
= $266.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y224)
= Exp(a + b × X224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 327 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7051 + 0.0025 × 327 – 2 × 0.0282)
= Exp(5.4731)
= $238.21
November 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y275)
= Exp(a + b × X275 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7051 + 0.0025 × 399 + 2 × 0.0282)
= Exp(5.7674)
= $319.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y275)
= Exp(a + b × X275 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7051 + 0.0025 × 399 – 2 × 0.0282)
= Exp(5.6547)
= $285.62
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 150.97% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of November 5, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $8.19 (2.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.