Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 41.57% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $270.87 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 147.36% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of September 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TXN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 13, 2026
End date: September 21, 2026
a = 6.2142
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0340
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -41.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0340) – 1
= 14.57%
May 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y218)
= Exp(a + b × X218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2142 + -0.0015 × 316 + 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(5.8169)
= $335.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y218)
= Exp(a + b × X218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2142 + -0.0015 × 316 – 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(5.6810)
= $293.23
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 447 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2142 + -0.0015 × 447 + 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(5.6241)
= $277.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 447 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2142 + -0.0015 × 447 – 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(5.4881)
= $241.79
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 41.57% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $270.87 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 1, 2026
End date: September 21, 2026
a = 4.4803
b = 0.0025
s = 0.0133
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 147.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0133) – 1
= 5.45%
September 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4803 + 0.0025 × 427 + 2 × 0.0133)
= Exp(5.5663)
= $261.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4803 + 0.0025 × 427 – 2 × 0.0133)
= Exp(5.5132)
= $247.95
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 447 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4803 + 0.0025 × 447 + 2 × 0.0133)
= Exp(5.6159)
= $274.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 447 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4803 + 0.0025 × 447 – 2 × 0.0133)
= Exp(5.5628)
= $260.56
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 147.36% per annum.
- TXN price at the close of September 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.