Stock Analysis on Net

KLA Corp. (NASDAQ:KLAC)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 146.37% per annum.
  • KLAC price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $696.87 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 32.55% per annum.
  • KLAC price at the close of March 27, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KLAC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 15, 2023
End date: March 27, 2024

a = 2.0626

b = 0.0025

s = 0.0361

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 146.37%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0361) – 1
= 15.53%

September 15, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,632 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0626 + 0.0025 × 1,632 + 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(6.1663)
= $476.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,632 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0626 + 0.0025 × 1,632 – 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(6.0219)
= $412.38

March 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0626 + 0.0025 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(6.6455)
= $769.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0626 + 0.0025 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(6.5012)
= $665.92

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 146.37% per annum.
  • KLAC price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $696.87 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 1, 2024
End date: March 27, 2024

a = 8.5078

b = -0.0011

s = 0.0167

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.55%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0167) – 1
= 6.92%

March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5078 + -0.0011 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0167)
= Exp(6.5992)
= $734.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5078 + -0.0011 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0167)
= Exp(6.5323)
= $686.97

March 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5078 + -0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0167)
= Exp(6.5711)
= $714.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5078 + -0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0167)
= Exp(6.5042)
= $667.96

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 32.55% per annum.
  • KLAC price at the close of March 27, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
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