Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 80.60% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of September 18, 2026 was $176.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.33% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of September 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KLAC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 11, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 7.0279
b = -0.0045
s = 0.0649
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0045) – 1
= -80.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0649) – 1
= 29.65%
June 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y226)
= Exp(a + b × X226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0279 + -0.0045 × 328 + 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(5.6842)
= $294.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y226)
= Exp(a + b × X226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0279 + -0.0045 × 328 – 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(5.4246)
= $226.92
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0279 + -0.0045 × 427 + 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(5.2395)
= $188.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0279 + -0.0045 × 427 – 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(4.9798)
= $145.45
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 80.60% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of September 18, 2026 was $176.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 28, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 6.1021
b = -0.0022
s = 0.0517
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0517) – 1
= 22.96%
July 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y257)
= Exp(a + b × X257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 375 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1021 + -0.0022 × 375 + 2 × 0.0517)
= Exp(5.3775)
= $216.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y257)
= Exp(a + b × X257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 375 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1021 + -0.0022 × 375 – 2 × 0.0517)
= Exp(5.1708)
= $176.06
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1021 + -0.0022 × 427 + 2 × 0.0517)
= Exp(5.2627)
= $192.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1021 + -0.0022 × 427 – 2 × 0.0517)
= Exp(5.0560)
= $156.96
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.33% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of September 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.