Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.77% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $129.80 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.59 (1.21%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 97.48% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of November 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KLAC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 11, 2026
End date: November 5, 2026
a = 6.5225
b = -0.0031
s = 0.0853
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0853) – 1
= 40.68%
June 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y226)
= Exp(a + b × X226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5225 + -0.0031 × 328 + 2 × 0.0853)
= Exp(5.6756)
= $291.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y226)
= Exp(a + b × X226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5225 + -0.0031 × 328 – 2 × 0.0853)
= Exp(5.3342)
= $207.31
November 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 475 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5225 + -0.0031 × 475 + 2 × 0.0853)
= Exp(5.2195)
= $184.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 475 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5225 + -0.0031 × 475 – 2 × 0.0853)
= Exp(4.8782)
= $131.39
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.77% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $129.80 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.59 (1.21%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 29, 2026
End date: November 5, 2026
a = 9.7504
b = -0.0101
s = 0.0541
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0101) – 1
= -97.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0541) – 1
= 24.14%
September 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 438 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7504 + -0.0101 × 438 + 2 × 0.0541)
= Exp(5.4406)
= $230.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 438 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7504 + -0.0101 × 438 – 2 × 0.0541)
= Exp(5.2244)
= $185.75
November 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 475 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7504 + -0.0101 × 475 + 2 × 0.0541)
= Exp(5.0674)
= $158.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 475 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7504 + -0.0101 × 475 – 2 × 0.0541)
= Exp(4.8512)
= $127.90
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 97.48% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of November 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.