Stock Analysis on Net
Stock Analysis on Net
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NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA)

Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Intermediate level

Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

NVIDIA Corp., dividends per share (DPS) forecast

US$

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Year Value DPSt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 24.08%
0 DPS01 0.64
1 DPS1 0.78 = 0.64 × (1 + 21.93%) 0.63
2 DPS2 0.96 = 0.78 × (1 + 22.43%) 0.62
3 DPS3 1.17 = 0.96 × (1 + 22.93%) 0.61
4 DPS4 1.45 = 1.17 × (1 + 23.43%) 0.61
5 DPS5 1.80 = 1.45 × (1 + 23.93%) 0.61
5 Terminal value (TV5) 1,503.51 = 1.80 × (1 + 23.93%) ÷ (24.08%23.93%) 511.25
Intrinsic value of NVIDIA Corp.’s common stock (per share) $514.34
Current share price $535.60

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2020-02-20).

1 DPS0 = Sum of the last year dividends per share of NVIDIA Corp.’s common stock. See details »

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Required Rate of Return (r)

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Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF 1.47%
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM) 12.43%
Systematic risk of NVIDIA Corp.’s common stock βNVDA 2.06
 
Required rate of return on NVIDIA Corp.’s common stock3 rNVDA 24.08%

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

2 See details »

3 rNVDA = RF + βNVDA [E(RM) – RF]
= 1.47% + 2.06 [12.43%1.47%]
= 24.08%


Dividend Growth Rate (g)

Dividend growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

NVIDIA Corp., PRAT model

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Average Jan 26, 2020 Jan 27, 2019 Jan 28, 2018 Jan 29, 2017 Jan 31, 2016 Jan 25, 2015
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Cash dividends declared and paid 390  371  341  261  213  186 
Net income 2,796  4,141  3,047  1,666  614  631 
Revenue 10,918  11,716  9,714  6,910  5,010  4,682 
Total assets 17,315  13,292  11,241  9,841  7,370  7,201 
Shareholders’ equity 12,204  9,342  7,471  5,762  4,469  4,418 
Financial Ratios
Retention rate1 0.86 0.91 0.89 0.84 0.65 0.70
Profit margin2 25.61% 35.34% 31.37% 24.11% 12.26% 13.47%
Asset turnover3 0.63 0.88 0.86 0.70 0.68 0.65
Financial leverage4 1.42 1.42 1.50 1.71 1.65 1.63
Averages
Retention rate 0.81
Profit margin 23.69%
Asset turnover 0.73
Financial leverage 1.56
 
Dividend growth rate (g)5 21.93%

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2020-02-20), 10-K (filing date: 2019-02-21), 10-K (filing date: 2018-02-28), 10-K (filing date: 2017-03-01), 10-K (filing date: 2016-03-17), 10-K (filing date: 2015-03-12).

2020 Calculations

1 Retention rate = (Net income – Cash dividends declared and paid) ÷ Net income
= (2,796390) ÷ 2,796 = 0.86

2 Profit margin = 100 × Net income ÷ Revenue
= 100 × 2,796 ÷ 10,918 = 25.61%

3 Asset turnover = Revenue ÷ Total assets
= 10,918 ÷ 17,315 = 0.63

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Shareholders’ equity
= 17,315 ÷ 12,204 = 1.42

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= 0.81 × 23.69% × 0.73 × 1.56 = 21.93%


Dividend growth rate (g) implied by Gordon growth model

g = 100 × (P0 × rD0) ÷ (P0 + D0)
= 100 × ($535.60 × 24.08%$0.64) ÷ ($535.60 + $0.64) = 23.93%

where:
P0 = current price of share of NVIDIA Corp.’s common stock
D0 = the last year dividends per share of NVIDIA Corp.’s common stock
r = required rate of return on NVIDIA Corp.’s common stock


Dividend growth rate (g) forecast

NVIDIA Corp., H-model

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Year Value gt
1 g1 21.93%
2 g2 22.43%
3 g3 22.93%
4 g4 23.43%
5 and thereafter g5 23.93%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by Gordon growth model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 21.93% + (23.93%21.93%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 22.43%

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 21.93% + (23.93%21.93%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 22.93%

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 21.93% + (23.93%21.93%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 23.43%