Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 139.60% per annum.
- BKNG price at the close of August 3, 2026 was $192.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,601.68% per annum.
- BKNG price at the close of August 3, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BKNG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 11, 2026
End date: August 3, 2026
a = 4.1648
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0296
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 139.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0296) – 1
= 12.58%
May 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y254)
= Exp(a + b × X254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 370 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1648 + 0.0024 × 370 + 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(5.1098)
= $165.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y254)
= Exp(a + b × X254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 370 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1648 + 0.0024 × 370 – 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(4.9914)
= $147.14
August 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y311)
= Exp(a + b × X311 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 454 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1648 + 0.0024 × 454 + 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(5.3109)
= $202.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y311)
= Exp(a + b × X311 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 454 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1648 + 0.0024 × 454 – 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(5.1925)
= $179.91
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 139.60% per annum.
- BKNG price at the close of August 3, 2026 was $192.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 20, 2026
End date: August 3, 2026
a = 1.1976
b = 0.0090
s = 0.0337
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0090) – 1
= 2,601.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0337) – 1
= 14.45%
July 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 440 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1976 + 0.0090 × 440 + 2 × 0.0337)
= Exp(5.2389)
= $188.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 440 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1976 + 0.0090 × 440 – 2 × 0.0337)
= Exp(5.1039)
= $164.67
August 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y311)
= Exp(a + b × X311 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 454 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1976 + 0.0090 × 454 + 2 × 0.0337)
= Exp(5.3653)
= $213.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y311)
= Exp(a + b × X311 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 454 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1976 + 0.0090 × 454 – 2 × 0.0337)
= Exp(5.2304)
= $186.86
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,601.68% per annum.
- BKNG price at the close of August 3, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.