Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 190.46% per annum.
- BKNG price at the close of July 10, 2026 was $178.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 32.96% per annum.
- BKNG price at the close of July 10, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BKNG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 11, 2026
End date: July 7, 2026
a = 3.9601
b = 0.0029
s = 0.0239
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 190.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0239) – 1
= 10.03%
May 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y254)
= Exp(a + b × X254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 370 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9601 + 0.0029 × 370 + 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(5.0888)
= $162.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y254)
= Exp(a + b × X254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 370 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9601 + 0.0029 × 370 – 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(4.9932)
= $147.41
July 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y292)
= Exp(a + b × X292 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9601 + 0.0029 × 427 + 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(5.2553)
= $191.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y292)
= Exp(a + b × X292 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9601 + 0.0029 × 427 – 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(5.1598)
= $174.12
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 190.46% per annum.
- BKNG price at the close of July 10, 2026 was $178.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 24, 2026
End date: July 10, 2026
a = 5.6548
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0172
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0172) – 1
= 7.14%
June 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6548 + -0.0011 × 414 + 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(5.2358)
= $187.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6548 + -0.0011 × 414 – 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(5.1668)
= $175.35
July 10, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6548 + -0.0011 × 430 + 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(5.2182)
= $184.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6548 + -0.0011 × 430 – 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(5.1493)
= $172.31
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 32.96% per annum.
- BKNG price at the close of July 10, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.