Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 86.87% per annum.
- BKNG price at the close of November 2, 2026 was $153.75 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.40 (5.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.61% per annum.
- BKNG price at the close of November 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BKNG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2026
End date: October 13, 2026
a = 7.3920
b = -0.0056
s = 0.0365
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0056) – 1
= -86.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0365) – 1
= 15.73%
August 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y246)
= Exp(a + b × X246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 358 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3920 + -0.0056 × 358 + 2 × 0.0365)
= Exp(5.4741)
= $238.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y246)
= Exp(a + b × X246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 358 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3920 + -0.0056 × 358 – 2 × 0.0365)
= Exp(5.3280)
= $206.03
October 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3920 + -0.0056 × 427 + 2 × 0.0365)
= Exp(5.0904)
= $162.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3920 + -0.0056 × 427 – 2 × 0.0365)
= Exp(4.9443)
= $140.37
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 86.87% per annum.
- BKNG price at the close of November 2, 2026 was $153.75 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.40 (5.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 9, 2026
End date: November 2, 2026
a = 6.0436
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0259
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0259) – 1
= 10.92%
September 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y270)
= Exp(a + b × X270 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 393 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0436 + -0.0023 × 393 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(5.1963)
= $180.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y270)
= Exp(a + b × X270 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 393 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0436 + -0.0023 × 393 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(5.0926)
= $162.82
November 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y308)
= Exp(a + b × X308 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 447 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0436 + -0.0023 × 447 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(5.0727)
= $159.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y308)
= Exp(a + b × X308 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 447 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0436 + -0.0023 × 447 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.9691)
= $143.90
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.61% per annum.
- BKNG price at the close of November 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.