Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.91% per annum.
- ABNB price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $151.64 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $44.52 (22.70%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.83% per annum.
- ABNB price at the close of August 6, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.49 (0.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ABNB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2022
End date: July 24, 2024
a = 4.4434
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0973
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0973) – 1
= 47.58%
May 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y189)
= Exp(a + b × X189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4434 + 0.0006 × 273 + 2 × 0.0973)
= Exp(4.7923)
= $120.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y189)
= Exp(a + b × X189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4434 + 0.0006 × 273 – 2 × 0.0973)
= Exp(4.4031)
= $81.70
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y743)
= Exp(a + b × X743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,080 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4434 + 0.0006 × 1,080 + 2 × 0.0973)
= Exp(5.2483)
= $190.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y743)
= Exp(a + b × X743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,080 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4434 + 0.0006 × 1,080 – 2 × 0.0973)
= Exp(4.8591)
= $128.91
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.91% per annum.
- ABNB price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $151.64 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $44.52 (22.70%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 12, 2023
End date: June 25, 2026
a = 4.9938
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0838
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0838) – 1
= 39.84%
June 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y463)
= Exp(a + b × X463 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9938 + -0.0001 × 672 + 2 × 0.0838)
= Exp(5.1087)
= $165.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y463)
= Exp(a + b × X463 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9938 + -0.0001 × 672 – 2 × 0.0838)
= Exp(4.7733)
= $118.31
June 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9938 + -0.0001 × 1,781 + 2 × 0.0838)
= Exp(5.0216)
= $151.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9938 + -0.0001 × 1,781 – 2 × 0.0838)
= Exp(4.6863)
= $108.45
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.83% per annum.
- ABNB price at the close of August 6, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.49 (0.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.