Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.34% per annum.
- ABNB price at the close of October 27, 2026 was $168.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.71% per annum.
- ABNB price at the close of October 27, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ABNB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 5, 2025
End date: October 27, 2026
a = 3.4944
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0693
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0693) – 1
= 31.92%
September 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y966)
= Exp(a + b × X966 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4944 + 0.0009 × 1,408 + 2 × 0.0693)
= Exp(4.8847)
= $132.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y966)
= Exp(a + b × X966 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4944 + 0.0009 × 1,408 – 2 × 0.0693)
= Exp(4.6077)
= $100.25
October 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4944 + 0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0693)
= Exp(5.2555)
= $191.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4944 + 0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0693)
= Exp(4.9784)
= $145.25
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.34% per annum.
- ABNB price at the close of October 27, 2026 was $168.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 7, 2026
End date: October 27, 2026
a = 8.0488
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0493
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0493) – 1
= 21.80%
August 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0488 + -0.0016 × 1,744 + 2 × 0.0493)
= Exp(5.3156)
= $203.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0488 + -0.0016 × 1,744 – 2 × 0.0493)
= Exp(5.1184)
= $167.06
October 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0488 + -0.0016 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0493)
= Exp(5.1841)
= $178.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0488 + -0.0016 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0493)
= Exp(4.9869)
= $146.48
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.71% per annum.
- ABNB price at the close of October 27, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.