Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.85% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of October 14, 2026 was $238.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.08% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of October 14, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.23 (0.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 4, 2026
End date: October 14, 2026
a = 6.0102
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0297
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0297) – 1
= 12.62%
February 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y127)
= Exp(a + b × X127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 184 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0102 + -0.0012 × 184 + 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(5.8457)
= $345.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y127)
= Exp(a + b × X127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 184 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0102 + -0.0012 × 184 – 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(5.7269)
= $307.02
October 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 436 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0102 + -0.0012 × 436 + 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(5.5392)
= $254.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 436 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0102 + -0.0012 × 436 – 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(5.4204)
= $225.96
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.85% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of October 14, 2026 was $238.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2026
End date: October 14, 2026
a = 6.5974
b = -0.0027
s = 0.0168
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0168) – 1
= 6.96%
August 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 366 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5974 + -0.0027 × 366 + 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(5.6586)
= $286.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 366 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5974 + -0.0027 × 366 – 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(5.5913)
= $268.09
October 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 436 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5974 + -0.0027 × 436 + 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(5.4726)
= $238.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 436 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5974 + -0.0027 × 436 – 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(5.4053)
= $222.59
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.08% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of October 14, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.23 (0.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.