Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.65% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of June 16, 2026 was $287.93 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.06 (4.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.13% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of June 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 12, 2026
End date: June 4, 2026
a = 6.3660
b = -0.0019
s = 0.0189
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -50.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0189) – 1
= 7.85%
February 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y195)
= Exp(a + b × X195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3660 + -0.0019 × 283 + 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(5.8562)
= $349.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y195)
= Exp(a + b × X195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3660 + -0.0019 × 283 – 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(5.7807)
= $323.97
June 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y272)
= Exp(a + b × X272 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 395 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3660 + -0.0019 × 395 + 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(5.6395)
= $281.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y272)
= Exp(a + b × X272 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 395 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3660 + -0.0019 × 395 – 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(5.5639)
= $260.85
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.65% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of June 16, 2026 was $287.93 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.06 (4.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 8, 2026
End date: June 16, 2026
a = 5.2777
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0122
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0122) – 1
= 5.02%
May 8, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y254)
= Exp(a + b × X254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 368 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2777 + 0.0009 × 368 + 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(5.6352)
= $280.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y254)
= Exp(a + b × X254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 368 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2777 + 0.0009 × 368 – 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(5.5862)
= $266.72
June 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y280)
= Exp(a + b × X280 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2777 + 0.0009 × 407 + 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(5.6704)
= $290.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y280)
= Exp(a + b × X280 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2777 + 0.0009 × 407 – 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(5.6215)
= $276.30
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.13% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of June 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.