Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 319.36% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of February 6, 2026 was $327.16 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 282.61% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of February 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 20, 2026
End date: February 6, 2026
a = -1.3796
b = 0.0039
s = 0.0044
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0039) – 1
= 319.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0044) – 1
= 1.78%
January 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3796 + 0.0039 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0044)
= Exp(5.7264)
= $306.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3796 + 0.0039 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0044)
= Exp(5.7088)
= $301.50
February 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3796 + 0.0039 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0044)
= Exp(5.7932)
= $328.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3796 + 0.0039 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0044)
= Exp(5.7756)
= $322.32
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 319.36% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of February 6, 2026 was $327.16 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 23, 2026
End date: February 6, 2026
a = -0.9222
b = 0.0037
s = 0.0046
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0037) – 1
= 282.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0046) – 1
= 1.87%
January 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9222 + 0.0037 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0046)
= Exp(5.7411)
= $311.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9222 + 0.0037 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0046)
= Exp(5.7225)
= $305.67
February 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9222 + 0.0037 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0046)
= Exp(5.7925)
= $327.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9222 + 0.0037 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0046)
= Exp(5.7740)
= $321.81
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 282.61% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of February 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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