Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.40% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of October 29, 2026 was $257.38 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.79 (2.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 263.87% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of October 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2026
End date: October 21, 2026
a = 6.0045
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0296
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0296) – 1
= 12.58%
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y126)
= Exp(a + b × X126 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0045 + -0.0012 × 183 + 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(5.8447)
= $345.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y126)
= Exp(a + b × X126 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0045 + -0.0012 × 183 – 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(5.7262)
= $306.81
October 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 443 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0045 + -0.0012 × 443 + 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(5.5334)
= $253.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 443 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0045 + -0.0012 × 443 – 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(5.4149)
= $224.74
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.40% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of October 29, 2026 was $257.38 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.79 (2.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 30, 2026
End date: October 29, 2026
a = 3.9392
b = 0.0035
s = 0.0100
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0035) – 1
= 263.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0100) – 1
= 4.09%
September 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9392 + 0.0035 × 422 + 2 × 0.0100)
= Exp(5.4525)
= $233.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9392 + 0.0035 × 422 – 2 × 0.0100)
= Exp(5.4125)
= $224.19
October 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y312)
= Exp(a + b × X312 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 451 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9392 + 0.0035 × 451 + 2 × 0.0100)
= Exp(5.5552)
= $258.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y312)
= Exp(a + b × X312 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 451 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9392 + 0.0035 × 451 – 2 × 0.0100)
= Exp(5.5151)
= $248.42
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 263.87% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of October 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.