Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.04% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of July 31, 2026 was $270.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.12% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of July 31, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 4, 2026
End date: July 27, 2026
a = 6.1733
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0259
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0259) – 1
= 10.90%
February 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y189)
= Exp(a + b × X189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 275 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1733 + -0.0014 × 275 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(5.8522)
= $347.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y189)
= Exp(a + b × X189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 275 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1733 + -0.0014 × 275 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(5.7487)
= $313.79
July 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1733 + -0.0014 × 448 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(5.6176)
= $275.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1733 + -0.0014 × 448 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(5.5141)
= $248.17
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.04% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of July 31, 2026 was $270.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 1, 2026
End date: July 31, 2026
a = 5.8138
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0190
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0190) – 1
= 7.91%
May 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y249)
= Exp(a + b × X249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 361 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8138 + -0.0005 × 361 + 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(5.6780)
= $292.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y249)
= Exp(a + b × X249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 361 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8138 + -0.0005 × 361 – 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(5.6019)
= $270.93
July 31, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y311)
= Exp(a + b × X311 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 452 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8138 + -0.0005 × 452 + 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(5.6342)
= $279.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y311)
= Exp(a + b × X311 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 452 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8138 + -0.0005 × 452 – 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(5.5580)
= $259.32
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.12% per annum.
- MCD price at the close of July 31, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.