Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.12% per annum.
- DASH price at the close of November 4, 2026 was $198.59 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $36.94 (22.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 46.60% per annum.
- DASH price at the close of November 4, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DASH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 2, 2025
End date: June 25, 2026
a = 7.4386
b = -0.0014
s = 0.1055
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1055) – 1
= 52.50%
June 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y894)
= Exp(a + b × X894 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,305 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4386 + -0.0014 × 1,305 + 2 × 0.1055)
= Exp(5.8160)
= $335.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y894)
= Exp(a + b × X894 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,305 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4386 + -0.0014 × 1,305 – 2 × 0.1055)
= Exp(5.3940)
= $220.09
June 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4386 + -0.0014 × 1,693 + 2 × 0.1055)
= Exp(5.2709)
= $194.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4386 + -0.0014 × 1,693 – 2 × 0.1055)
= Exp(4.8489)
= $127.60
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.12% per annum.
- DASH price at the close of November 4, 2026 was $198.59 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $36.94 (22.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 11, 2026
End date: October 22, 2026
a = 3.4249
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0861
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 46.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0861) – 1
= 41.09%
February 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,069)
= Exp(a + b × X1,069 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4249 + 0.0010 × 1,559 + 2 × 0.0861)
= Exp(5.2309)
= $186.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,069)
= Exp(a + b × X1,069 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4249 + 0.0010 × 1,559 – 2 × 0.0861)
= Exp(4.8866)
= $132.51
October 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4249 + 0.0010 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0861)
= Exp(5.4960)
= $243.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4249 + 0.0010 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0861)
= Exp(5.1518)
= $172.74
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 46.60% per annum.
- DASH price at the close of November 4, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.