Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 72.90% per annum.
- DASH price at the close of September 18, 2026 was $192.94 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $160.08 (45.35%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.69% per annum.
- DASH price at the close of September 18, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.39 (3.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DASH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 18, 2022
End date: November 5, 2025
a = 3.3363
b = 0.0015
s = 0.1030
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 72.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1030) – 1
= 50.99%
August 18, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y230)
= Exp(a + b × X230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 332 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3363 + 0.0015 × 332 + 2 × 0.1030)
= Exp(4.0404)
= $56.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y230)
= Exp(a + b × X230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 332 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3363 + 0.0015 × 332 – 2 × 0.1030)
= Exp(3.6283)
= $37.65
November 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,037)
= Exp(a + b × X1,037 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,507 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3363 + 0.0015 × 1,507 + 2 × 0.1030)
= Exp(5.8031)
= $331.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,037)
= Exp(a + b × X1,037 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,507 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3363 + 0.0015 × 1,507 – 2 × 0.1030)
= Exp(5.3910)
= $219.42
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 72.90% per annum.
- DASH price at the close of September 18, 2026 was $192.94 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $160.08 (45.35%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 30, 2025
End date: July 27, 2026
a = 7.2115
b = -0.0012
s = 0.1118
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1118) – 1
= 56.40%
May 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y927)
= Exp(a + b × X927 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,348 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2115 + -0.0012 × 1,348 + 2 × 0.1118)
= Exp(5.8045)
= $331.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y927)
= Exp(a + b × X927 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,348 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2115 + -0.0012 × 1,348 – 2 × 0.1118)
= Exp(5.3573)
= $212.14
July 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2115 + -0.0012 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.1118)
= Exp(5.2928)
= $198.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2115 + -0.0012 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.1118)
= Exp(4.8456)
= $127.18
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.69% per annum.
- DASH price at the close of September 18, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.39 (3.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.