Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.55% per annum.
- SBUX price at the close of June 29, 2026 was $104.06 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.61% per annum.
- SBUX price at the close of June 29, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $7.58 (7.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SBUX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 9, 2025
End date: May 28, 2026
a = 4.2126
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0370
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 46.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0370) – 1
= 15.95%
September 9, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y99)
= Exp(a + b × X99 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 146 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2126 + 0.0010 × 146 + 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(4.4395)
= $84.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y99)
= Exp(a + b × X99 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 146 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2126 + 0.0010 × 146 – 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(4.2915)
= $73.08
May 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2126 + 0.0010 × 407 + 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(4.7128)
= $111.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2126 + 0.0010 × 407 – 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(4.5648)
= $96.05
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.55% per annum.
- SBUX price at the close of June 29, 2026 was $104.06 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 29, 2026
End date: June 10, 2026
a = 5.6717
b = -0.0026
s = 0.0245
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -61.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0245) – 1
= 10.29%
April 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y259)
= Exp(a + b × X259 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 378 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6717 + -0.0026 × 378 + 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(4.7294)
= $113.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y259)
= Exp(a + b × X259 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 378 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6717 + -0.0026 × 378 – 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(4.6314)
= $102.66
June 10, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y288)
= Exp(a + b × X288 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6717 + -0.0026 × 420 + 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(4.6192)
= $101.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y288)
= Exp(a + b × X288 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6717 + -0.0026 × 420 – 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(4.5213)
= $91.95
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.61% per annum.
- SBUX price at the close of June 29, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $7.58 (7.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.