Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 65.00% per annum.
- SBUX price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $97.52 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.23 (3.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.91% per annum.
- SBUX price at the close of October 16, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.66 (0.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SBUX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 11, 2026
End date: October 14, 2026
a = 5.8236
b = -0.0029
s = 0.0201
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0029) – 1
= -65.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0201) – 1
= 8.36%
August 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y270)
= Exp(a + b × X270 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 392 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8236 + -0.0029 × 392 + 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(4.7362)
= $114.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y270)
= Exp(a + b × X270 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 392 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8236 + -0.0029 × 392 – 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(4.6559)
= $105.21
October 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y315)
= Exp(a + b × X315 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 456 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8236 + -0.0029 × 456 + 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(4.5521)
= $94.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y315)
= Exp(a + b × X315 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 456 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8236 + -0.0029 × 456 – 2 × 0.0201)
= Exp(4.4718)
= $87.52
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 65.00% per annum.
- SBUX price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $97.52 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.23 (3.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 15, 2026
End date: October 16, 2026
a = 4.8822
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0170
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0170) – 1
= 7.03%
September 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8822 + -0.0007 × 427 + 2 × 0.0170)
= Exp(4.5965)
= $99.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8822 + -0.0007 × 427 – 2 × 0.0170)
= Exp(4.5285)
= $92.62
October 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 458 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8822 + -0.0007 × 458 + 2 × 0.0170)
= Exp(4.5733)
= $96.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 458 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8822 + -0.0007 × 458 – 2 × 0.0170)
= Exp(4.5053)
= $90.50
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.91% per annum.
- SBUX price at the close of October 16, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.66 (0.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.