Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 141.37% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of April 23, 2024 was $2,915.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.98% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of April 23, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: April 23, 2024
a = 3.6076
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0336
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 141.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0336) – 1
= 14.38%
September 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,111)
= Exp(a + b × X1,111 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,611 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6076 + 0.0024 × 1,611 + 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(7.5640)
= $1,927.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,111)
= Exp(a + b × X1,111 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,611 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6076 + 0.0024 × 1,611 – 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(7.4296)
= $1,685.14
April 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6076 + 0.0024 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(8.0830)
= $3,238.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6076 + 0.0024 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(7.9486)
= $2,831.72
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 141.37% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of April 23, 2024 was $2,915.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 20, 2024
End date: April 23, 2024
a = 7.6894
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0112
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 5.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0112) – 1
= 4.58%
March 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6894 + 0.0002 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(7.9969)
= $2,971.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6894 + 0.0002 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(7.9522)
= $2,841.69
April 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6894 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(8.0023)
= $2,987.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6894 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(7.9576)
= $2,857.11
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.98% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of April 23, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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