Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.41% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of September 24, 2026 was $32.01 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.06% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of September 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 25, 2024
End date: September 24, 2026
a = 4.9697
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0995
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0995) – 1
= 48.87%
March 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y626)
= Exp(a + b × X626 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 910 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9697 + -0.0008 × 910 + 2 × 0.0995)
= Exp(4.4042)
= $81.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y626)
= Exp(a + b × X626 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 910 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9697 + -0.0008 × 910 – 2 × 0.0995)
= Exp(4.0063)
= $54.95
September 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9697 + -0.0008 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0995)
= Exp(3.6372)
= $37.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9697 + -0.0008 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0995)
= Exp(3.2394)
= $25.52
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.41% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of September 24, 2026 was $32.01 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 11, 2026
End date: September 24, 2026
a = 2.8509
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0575
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0575) – 1
= 25.85%
March 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,117)
= Exp(a + b × X1,117 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,626 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8509 + 0.0004 × 1,626 + 2 × 0.0575)
= Exp(3.5907)
= $36.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,117)
= Exp(a + b × X1,117 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,626 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8509 + 0.0004 × 1,626 – 2 × 0.0575)
= Exp(3.3608)
= $28.81
September 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8509 + 0.0004 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0575)
= Exp(3.6664)
= $39.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8509 + 0.0004 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0575)
= Exp(3.4365)
= $31.08
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.06% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of September 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.