Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.53% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of August 10, 2026 was $32.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.91% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of August 10, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 25, 2024
End date: August 10, 2026
a = 5.1211
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0949
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0949) – 1
= 46.17%
April 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y680)
= Exp(a + b × X680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 988 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1211 + -0.0009 × 988 + 2 × 0.0949)
= Exp(4.4016)
= $81.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y680)
= Exp(a + b × X680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 988 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1211 + -0.0009 × 988 – 2 × 0.0949)
= Exp(4.0220)
= $55.81
August 10, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1211 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0949)
= Exp(3.6313)
= $37.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1211 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0949)
= Exp(3.2516)
= $25.83
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.53% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of August 10, 2026 was $32.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 30, 2025
End date: August 10, 2026
a = 3.9682
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0810
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -8.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0810) – 1
= 38.26%
October 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,060)
= Exp(a + b × X1,060 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,541 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9682 + -0.0003 × 1,541 + 2 × 0.0810)
= Exp(3.7361)
= $41.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,060)
= Exp(a + b × X1,060 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,541 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9682 + -0.0003 × 1,541 – 2 × 0.0810)
= Exp(3.4121)
= $30.33
August 10, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9682 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0810)
= Exp(3.6634)
= $38.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9682 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0810)
= Exp(3.3395)
= $28.20
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.91% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of August 10, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.