Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.00% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of August 22, 2025 was $43.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 91.42% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of August 22, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 20, 2024
End date: August 22, 2025
a = 4.7635
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0753
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0753) – 1
= 35.13%
March 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y898)
= Exp(a + b × X898 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,304 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7635 + -0.0005 × 1,304 + 2 × 0.0753)
= Exp(4.2911)
= $73.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y898)
= Exp(a + b × X898 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,304 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7635 + -0.0005 × 1,304 – 2 × 0.0753)
= Exp(3.9900)
= $54.06
August 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7635 + -0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0753)
= Exp(4.0427)
= $56.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7635 + -0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0753)
= Exp(3.7416)
= $42.17
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.00% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of August 22, 2025 was $43.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 27, 2025
End date: August 22, 2025
a = 15.9696
b = -0.0067
s = 0.0516
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0067) – 1
= -91.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0516) – 1
= 22.94%
June 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.9696 + -0.0067 × 1,768 + 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(4.1770)
= $65.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.9696 + -0.0067 × 1,768 – 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(3.9705)
= $53.01
August 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.9696 + -0.0067 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(3.8002)
= $44.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.9696 + -0.0067 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(3.5937)
= $36.37
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 91.42% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of August 22, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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