Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.41% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of November 6, 2026 was $34.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.90% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of November 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 25, 2024
End date: November 3, 2026
a = 4.9345
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0979
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0979) – 1
= 47.91%
March 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y596)
= Exp(a + b × X596 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 868 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9345 + -0.0008 × 868 + 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(4.4010)
= $81.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y596)
= Exp(a + b × X596 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 868 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9345 + -0.0008 × 868 – 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(4.0096)
= $55.12
November 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9345 + -0.0008 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(3.6004)
= $36.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9345 + -0.0008 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(3.2090)
= $24.75
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.41% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of November 6, 2026 was $34.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 30, 2025
End date: November 6, 2026
a = 3.9472
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0821
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -8.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0821) – 1
= 38.88%
October 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y998)
= Exp(a + b × X998 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,452 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9472 + -0.0003 × 1,452 + 2 × 0.0821)
= Exp(3.7405)
= $42.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y998)
= Exp(a + b × X998 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,452 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9472 + -0.0003 × 1,452 – 2 × 0.0821)
= Exp(3.4120)
= $30.33
November 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9472 + -0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0821)
= Exp(3.6455)
= $38.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9472 + -0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0821)
= Exp(3.3170)
= $27.58
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.90% per annum.
- CMG price at the close of November 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.