Stock Analysis on Net

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE:CMG)

$24.99

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

EVA is registered trademark of Stern Stewart.

Economic value added or economic profit is the difference between revenues and costs,where costs include not only expenses, but also cost of capital.

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Economic Profit

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., economic profit calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1
Cost of capital2
Invested capital3
 
Economic profit4

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2024 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= × =


Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
The net operating profit after taxes has exhibited a consistent upward trend over the five-year period. Starting at approximately $614 million in 2020, it increased annually, reaching about $1.71 billion by the end of 2024. This steady growth suggests improving operational efficiency or expansion efforts leading to higher profitability.
Cost of Capital
The cost of capital remained relatively stable throughout the observed years, fluctuating slightly between 16.7% and 17.05%. Such minor changes indicate a consistent perception of risk and financing costs associated with the company's capital structure.
Invested Capital
Invested capital showed moderate growth, beginning around $4.94 billion in 2020 and increasing to nearly $6.83 billion by 2024. The growth pattern is somewhat steady but includes a slight dip in 2022 before continuing its upward trajectory. This suggests ongoing investments in assets or operations that support business expansion or modernization.
Economic Profit
Economic profit demonstrates a noteworthy turnaround during the period. Initially negative in 2020 and 2021, at -$218 million and -$131 million respectively, it shifted to positive territory in 2022 with approximately $125 million, and continued to rise substantially to about $543 million by 2024. This transition reflects the company's improved ability to generate returns exceeding its cost of capital, highlighting enhanced value creation over time.

Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., NOPAT calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Net income
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1
Increase (decrease) in allowance for credit losses2
Increase (decrease) in unearned revenue3
Increase (decrease) in restructuring liability4
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents5
Interest expense
Interest expense, operating lease liability6
Adjusted interest expense
Tax benefit of interest expense7
Adjusted interest expense, after taxes8
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in allowance for credit losses.

3 Addition of increase (decrease) in unearned revenue.

4 Addition of increase (decrease) in restructuring liability.

5 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net income.

6 2024 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =

7 2024 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense = Adjusted interest expense × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

8 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net income.


The financial data over the five-year period reveals a consistent upward trend in both net income and net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT).

Net Income
Net income has shown significant growth each year, starting at 355,766 thousand US dollars in 2020 and increasing steadily to 1,534,110 thousand US dollars by 2024. This represents a more than fourfold increase over the period, indicating strong profitability improvements and potentially effective cost management or revenue growth strategies.
Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
NOPAT also displays a continuous rise from 613,981 thousand US dollars in 2020 to 1,706,003 thousand US dollars in 2024. The growing NOPAT suggests enhanced operational efficiency and profitability, reflecting the company's ability to generate higher returns from its core operations after accounting for tax expenses.

Overall, the data illustrates robust financial performance, with net income and NOPAT improving substantially year over year. The parallel growth in both metrics underlines consistent operational success coupled with effective tax management. This positive trajectory indicates favorable prospects if the trends continue.


Cash Operating Taxes

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Provision (benefit) for income taxes
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit)
Add: Tax savings from interest expense
Cash operating taxes

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).


The data reveals a consistent upward trend in both provision (benefit) for income taxes and cash operating taxes over the analyzed periods from 2020 to 2024.

Provision (benefit) for income taxes (US$ in thousands)
Initially, there was a negative value of -61,985 in 2020, indicating a tax benefit. However, this shifted to a positive figure in 2021, reaching 159,779, and continued to increase each subsequent year, culminating in 476,120 by 2024.
Cash operating taxes (US$ in thousands)
Similarly, cash operating taxes moved from a negative amount of -130,767 in 2020 to a positive 213,319 in 2021, with continuous growth each year thereafter. The amount more than doubled from 452,292 in 2023 to 573,988 in 2024.

The transition from negative to positive tax provisions and cash payments in 2021 suggests a significant change in the tax position or profitability of the company starting that year. The steady increase in both metrics through 2024 may indicate increasing taxable income or changes in tax rates or policies applied to the company. Additionally, the gap between provision for income taxes and cash operating taxes is evident and appears to widen over time, which could point to differences in deferred tax accounting effects or timing differences in tax payments.


Invested Capital

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Operating lease liability1
Total reported debt & leases
Shareholders’ equity
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2
Allowance for credit losses3
Unearned revenue4
Restructuring liability5
Equity equivalents6
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax7
Adjusted shareholders’ equity
Construction in Progress8
Debt investments9
Invested capital

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.

4 Addition of unearned revenue.

5 Addition of restructuring liability.

6 Addition of equity equivalents to shareholders’ equity.

7 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.

8 Subtraction of construction in Progress.

9 Subtraction of debt investments.


The financial data reveals consistent growth in key capital structure components over the observed five-year period.

Total reported debt & leases
There is a steady increase in total reported debt and lease obligations, rising from approximately $3.16 billion in 2020 to about $4.54 billion in 2024. The growth trend is continuous year-over-year, indicating an increasing reliance on leverage or lease obligations to finance operations or expansion initiatives.
Shareholders’ equity
Shareholders' equity shows a positive and notable growth trend, expanding from around $2.02 billion in 2020 to nearly $3.66 billion in 2024. The equity increases are more pronounced from 2022 onwards, suggesting retained earnings accumulation, equity infusion, or improved profitability driving the net asset value upwards.
Invested capital
Invested capital, representing the total amount of capital used for operations, also demonstrates an overall upward trend. It rises from about $4.94 billion in 2020 to approximately $6.83 billion in 2024, with a slight dip noted in 2022 relative to 2021. The rebound following 2022 highlights expansion or reinvestment efforts surpassing the previous year's level.

Overall, the data indicates a firm that is progressively increasing both its debt and equity bases to support growing invested capital. The increasing equity base alongside rising debt suggests balanced financing efforts, potentially enhancing financial flexibility and capacity for continued growth.


Cost of Capital

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »


Economic Spread Ratio

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1
Invested capital2
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
Airbnb Inc.
Booking Holdings Inc.
DoorDash, Inc.
McDonald’s Corp.
Starbucks Corp.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2024 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Economic Profit
The economic profit has shown a significant upward trend over the five-year period. Initially operating at a loss of approximately -$217.9 million in 2020, the metric improved substantially to a positive $542.6 million by 2024. This indicates a strong turnaround and increasing value generation beyond the company’s cost of capital.
Invested Capital
Invested capital demonstrates a steady increase from about $4.94 billion in 2020 to nearly $6.83 billion in 2024. This suggests ongoing investment in assets or expansion over the timeframe, reflecting growth or scaling efforts by the company.
Economic Spread Ratio
The economic spread ratio, which measures the difference between return on invested capital and the cost of capital, has improved markedly. The ratio was negative in the first two years (-4.41% in 2020 and -2.38% in 2021), indicating returns below the cost of capital. However, from 2022 onwards, it turned positive and increased to 7.95% by 2024, signifying enhanced profitability and efficient capital usage.

Economic Profit Margin

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1
 
Revenue
Add: Increase (decrease) in unearned revenue
Adjusted revenue
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
Airbnb Inc.
Booking Holdings Inc.
DoorDash, Inc.
McDonald’s Corp.
Starbucks Corp.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2024 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Adjusted revenue
= 100 × ÷ =

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Over the five-year period, the company exhibited a notable shift in its financial performance as measured by economic profit and adjusted revenue. Initially, there were substantial negative economic profits, with a marked loss of -217,873 thousand US dollars at the end of 2020, which improved significantly to -130,734 thousand US dollars by the end of 2021. This turnaround progressed further into positive territory, reaching 124,771 thousand US dollars in 2022, then increasing steadily in 2023 and 2024 to 378,665 thousand and 542,620 thousand US dollars, respectively.

This positive trajectory in economic profit corresponds with a consistent upward trend in adjusted revenue. The revenue grew from approximately 6.0 billion US dollars in 2020 to 7.6 billion in 2021, continuing to rise to 8.7 billion in 2022, 9.9 billion in 2023, and reaching over 11.3 billion US dollars by the end of 2024. This steady revenue growth likely underpins the improvements observed in economic profit, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency or profitability drivers over the years.

Supporting the economic profit growth, the economic profit margin shifted from negative values, -3.62% in 2020 and -1.73% in 2021, to positive percentages beginning in 2022 at 1.44%, increasing to 3.83% in 2023 and further to 4.78% in 2024. This progression indicates a strengthening capacity to generate profit relative to revenue, suggesting improvements in cost management, pricing strategies, or other value-creating activities within the company.

Overall, the data portrays a company that has moved from operating at a loss in terms of economic profit to generating solid economic value over the most recent three years. This turnaround is accompanied by strong and consistent revenue growth, coupled with progressively expanding profit margins, highlighting successful financial management and growth strategies during the analyzed timeframe.