Stock Analysis on Net

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE:CMG)

$24.99

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

EVA is registered trademark of Stern Stewart.

Economic value added or economic profit is the difference between revenues and costs,where costs include not only expenses, but also cost of capital.

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Economic Profit

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., economic profit calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1
Cost of capital2
Invested capital3
 
Economic profit4

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2024 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= × =


The financial data reveals several notable trends and shifts in key performance metrics over the five-year period.

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
NOPAT demonstrates a consistent upward trend from 2020 to 2024. Beginning at approximately $614 million in 2020, it increases steadily each year, reaching around $1.71 billion by 2024. This significant growth reflects improved operational efficiency or increased revenue generation over time.
Cost of Capital
The cost of capital remains relatively stable throughout the period, fluctuating slightly but staying close to approximately 16.7%. Minor variations suggest that the company’s financing conditions or market risk perceptions did not undergo significant changes.
Invested Capital
Invested capital shows an overall increasing trend, rising from about $4.9 billion in 2020 to nearly $6.8 billion in 2024. There is a slight dip observed around 2022, but the subsequent years show recovery and further growth. The expansion in invested capital may indicate continued investment in assets or business growth initiatives.
Economic Profit
Economic profit experiences a pronounced improvement throughout the period. Initially negative in 2020 and 2021, at approximately -$212 million and -$125 million respectively, it turns positive by 2022 and continues to grow substantially. By 2024, economic profit reaches approximately $550 million, reflecting a strong value creation beyond the cost of capital.

Overall, the data suggest that the company has enhanced its profitability and value creation capabilities over these years, supported by stable capital costs and increasing capital investment. The transition from negative to positive economic profit is particularly indicative of improved economic performance and efficient capital utilization.


Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., NOPAT calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Net income
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1
Increase (decrease) in allowance for credit losses2
Increase (decrease) in unearned revenue3
Increase (decrease) in restructuring liability4
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents5
Interest expense
Interest expense, operating lease liability6
Adjusted interest expense
Tax benefit of interest expense7
Adjusted interest expense, after taxes8
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in allowance for credit losses.

3 Addition of increase (decrease) in unearned revenue.

4 Addition of increase (decrease) in restructuring liability.

5 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net income.

6 2024 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =

7 2024 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense = Adjusted interest expense × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

8 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net income.


The financial data over the five-year period reveals a consistent upward trend in both net income and net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT).

Net Income
Net income has shown significant growth each year, starting at 355,766 thousand US dollars in 2020 and increasing steadily to 1,534,110 thousand US dollars by 2024. This represents a more than fourfold increase over the period, indicating strong profitability improvements and potentially effective cost management or revenue growth strategies.
Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
NOPAT also displays a continuous rise from 613,981 thousand US dollars in 2020 to 1,706,003 thousand US dollars in 2024. The growing NOPAT suggests enhanced operational efficiency and profitability, reflecting the company's ability to generate higher returns from its core operations after accounting for tax expenses.

Overall, the data illustrates robust financial performance, with net income and NOPAT improving substantially year over year. The parallel growth in both metrics underlines consistent operational success coupled with effective tax management. This positive trajectory indicates favorable prospects if the trends continue.


Cash Operating Taxes

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Provision (benefit) for income taxes
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit)
Add: Tax savings from interest expense
Cash operating taxes

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).


The data reveals a consistent upward trend in both provision (benefit) for income taxes and cash operating taxes over the analyzed periods from 2020 to 2024.

Provision (benefit) for income taxes (US$ in thousands)
Initially, there was a negative value of -61,985 in 2020, indicating a tax benefit. However, this shifted to a positive figure in 2021, reaching 159,779, and continued to increase each subsequent year, culminating in 476,120 by 2024.
Cash operating taxes (US$ in thousands)
Similarly, cash operating taxes moved from a negative amount of -130,767 in 2020 to a positive 213,319 in 2021, with continuous growth each year thereafter. The amount more than doubled from 452,292 in 2023 to 573,988 in 2024.

The transition from negative to positive tax provisions and cash payments in 2021 suggests a significant change in the tax position or profitability of the company starting that year. The steady increase in both metrics through 2024 may indicate increasing taxable income or changes in tax rates or policies applied to the company. Additionally, the gap between provision for income taxes and cash operating taxes is evident and appears to widen over time, which could point to differences in deferred tax accounting effects or timing differences in tax payments.


Invested Capital

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Operating lease liability1
Total reported debt & leases
Shareholders’ equity
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2
Allowance for credit losses3
Unearned revenue4
Restructuring liability5
Equity equivalents6
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax7
Adjusted shareholders’ equity
Construction in Progress8
Debt investments9
Invested capital

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.

4 Addition of unearned revenue.

5 Addition of restructuring liability.

6 Addition of equity equivalents to shareholders’ equity.

7 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.

8 Subtraction of construction in Progress.

9 Subtraction of debt investments.


The financial data reveals consistent growth in key capital structure components over the observed five-year period.

Total reported debt & leases
There is a steady increase in total reported debt and lease obligations, rising from approximately $3.16 billion in 2020 to about $4.54 billion in 2024. The growth trend is continuous year-over-year, indicating an increasing reliance on leverage or lease obligations to finance operations or expansion initiatives.
Shareholders’ equity
Shareholders' equity shows a positive and notable growth trend, expanding from around $2.02 billion in 2020 to nearly $3.66 billion in 2024. The equity increases are more pronounced from 2022 onwards, suggesting retained earnings accumulation, equity infusion, or improved profitability driving the net asset value upwards.
Invested capital
Invested capital, representing the total amount of capital used for operations, also demonstrates an overall upward trend. It rises from about $4.94 billion in 2020 to approximately $6.83 billion in 2024, with a slight dip noted in 2022 relative to 2021. The rebound following 2022 highlights expansion or reinvestment efforts surpassing the previous year's level.

Overall, the data indicates a firm that is progressively increasing both its debt and equity bases to support growing invested capital. The increasing equity base alongside rising debt suggests balanced financing efforts, potentially enhancing financial flexibility and capacity for continued growth.


Cost of Capital

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Operating lease liability3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Operating lease liability. See details »


Economic Spread Ratio

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1
Invested capital2
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
Airbnb Inc.
Booking Holdings Inc.
DoorDash, Inc.
McDonald’s Corp.
Starbucks Corp.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2024 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Economic Profit
The data reveals a consistent upward trend in economic profit over the five-year period. Starting with a significant negative value in 2020 (-$212,343 thousand), economic profit improves substantially each year, turning positive in 2022 ($130,750 thousand) and continuing to grow to $550,370 thousand by 2024. This pattern suggests a successful turnaround and enhanced value generation.
Invested Capital
Invested capital showed steady growth overall, beginning at $4,937,915 thousand in 2020 and reaching $6,827,838 thousand by 2024. Notably, there was a slight decline observed in 2022 ($5,396,406 thousand) compared to 2021 ($5,496,598 thousand), but this was followed by a strong recovery through 2023 and 2024. The growth in invested capital indicates continued investment and expansion activities.
Economic Spread Ratio
The economic spread ratio, which represents the difference between return on invested capital and cost of capital, also experienced a positive shift. Initially negative at -4.3% in 2020, it improved steadily to reach 8.06% in 2024. The ratio turned positive starting in 2022, aligned with the years when economic profit became positive, indicating enhanced operational efficiency and profitability relative to capital costs.
Summary
The overall financial analysis demonstrates a significant improvement in economic profitability and efficiency over the five years. The transition from negative to positive economic profit and economic spread ratio points to successful value creation. Concurrently, the invested capital base expanded, supporting growth and indicating reinvestment in the business. These trends collectively reflect strengthened financial performance and operational effectiveness during the period under review.

Economic Profit Margin

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1
 
Revenue
Add: Increase (decrease) in unearned revenue
Adjusted revenue
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
Airbnb Inc.
Booking Holdings Inc.
DoorDash, Inc.
McDonald’s Corp.
Starbucks Corp.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2024 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Adjusted revenue
= 100 × ÷ =

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Economic Profit
The economic profit has shown a significant upward trend over the five-year period. Initially, there were negative values of -212,343 thousand US dollars in 2020 and -124,623 thousand US dollars in 2021, indicating losses. Starting in 2022, economic profit turned positive at 130,750 thousand US dollars and continued to increase substantially to 385,494 thousand US dollars in 2023 and 550,370 thousand US dollars in 2024. This progression suggests an improving ability to generate value above the cost of capital.
Adjusted Revenue
Adjusted revenue has demonstrated consistent growth throughout the period examined. Beginning at approximately 6.0 billion US dollars in 2020, revenue increased steadily each year, reaching about 7.58 billion in 2021, 8.66 billion in 2022, 9.90 billion in 2023, and culminating at roughly 11.34 billion US dollars in 2024. This indicates strong top-line performance with healthy expansion over the course of the five years.
Economic Profit Margin
The economic profit margin mirrors the trend observed in economic profit, transitioning from negative to positive territory. In 2020, the margin was -3.53%, improving to -1.65% in 2021. A positive margin of 1.51% was recorded in 2022, which increased to 3.89% in 2023 and further to 4.85% in 2024. This upward trajectory highlights enhanced profitability relative to revenue, reflecting improved operational efficiency and effective cost management.
Overall Assessment
The financial metrics collectively indicate a robust recovery and growth phase, with the company moving from periods of economic losses to solid profitability. The rising adjusted revenue combined with the positive trend in economic profit and margin suggests successful strategic initiatives and efficient utilization of resources. The consistent improvements in economic profit and its margin underscore strengthened competitive positioning and value creation for shareholders over the analyzed timeframe.