Stock Analysis on Net

Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ:SBUX)

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

EVA is registered trademark of Stern Stewart.

Economic value added or economic profit is the difference between revenues and costs,where costs include not only expenses, but also cost of capital.


Economic Profit

Starbucks Corp., economic profit calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Sep 28, 2025 Sep 29, 2024 Oct 1, 2023 Oct 2, 2022 Oct 3, 2021 Sep 27, 2020
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1 2,453,553 4,408,732 4,602,842 3,732,356 4,625,159 1,475,541
Cost of capital2 14.80% 15.17% 15.49% 15.37% 15.40% 14.85%
Invested capital3 24,013,900 23,526,800 22,171,000 20,459,700 23,683,800 22,970,900
 
Economic profit4 (1,100,229) 840,836 1,169,484 587,965 977,490 (1,935,248)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-09-28), 10-K (reporting date: 2024-09-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-10-01), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-10-02), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-10-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-09-27).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2025 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= 2,453,55314.80% × 24,013,900 = -1,100,229


The analysis of economic profit reveals a period of significant volatility, characterized by a transition from value destruction to value creation and a subsequent return to negative economic profit. The overall trend indicates that the company struggled to maintain a consistent spread between its return on invested capital and its cost of capital over the six-year period.

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
NOPAT exhibited substantial fluctuations, starting at 1,475,541 thousand USD in 2020 and peaking in 2021 at 4,625,159 thousand USD. Following a dip in 2022 and a recovery in 2023, a sharp decline is observed by September 2025, where NOPAT fell to 2,453,553 thousand USD. This downward trajectory in the final year significantly impacted the company's ability to generate economic value.
Invested Capital and Cost of Capital
Invested capital remained relatively stable, oscillating between 20,459,700 thousand USD and 24,013,900 thousand USD. A gradual increase in the capital base is noted from 2022 onward, reaching its peak in 2025. Simultaneously, the cost of capital remained remarkably consistent, hovering within a narrow range between 14.80% and 15.49%, suggesting that the volatility in economic profit was driven by operating performance rather than shifts in the weighted average cost of capital.
Economic Profit Trends
Economic profit began in a negative position in 2020 (-1,935,248 thousand USD) before shifting to positive territory between 2021 and 2024. The peak of value creation occurred in 2023, with an economic profit of 1,169,484 thousand USD. However, by 2025, economic profit reverted to a negative value of -1,100,229 thousand USD. This reversal indicates that the NOPAT generated in 2025 was insufficient to cover the capital charge associated with the 24,013,900 thousand USD of invested capital.

The correlation between the decline in NOPAT and the increase in invested capital in the final year resulted in a significant erosion of economic value. While the company demonstrated a capacity for value creation during the mid-period, the most recent data indicates a return to value destruction, as the return on capital fell below the required cost of capital.

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Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

Starbucks Corp., NOPAT calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Sep 28, 2025 Sep 29, 2024 Oct 1, 2023 Oct 2, 2022 Oct 3, 2021 Sep 27, 2020
Net earnings attributable to Starbucks 1,856,400 3,760,900 4,124,500 3,281,600 4,199,300 928,300
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1 (11,700) (13,600) (59,300) 23,100 (125,000) (28,500)
Increase (decrease) in allowance for credit losses2 2,800 (2,600) (3,400) 1,600 (1,500) 20,400
Increase (decrease) in stored value card liability and deferred revenue3 (131,600) (57,200) (119,600) (137,500) 4,100 41,600
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents4 (140,500) (73,400) (182,300) (112,800) (122,400) 33,500
Interest expense 542,600 562,000 550,100 482,900 469,800 437,000
Interest expense, operating lease liability5 389,858 347,980 285,203 227,783 224,733 222,763
Adjusted interest expense 932,458 909,980 835,303 710,683 694,533 659,763
Tax benefit of interest expense6 (195,816) (191,096) (175,414) (149,244) (145,852) (138,550)
Adjusted interest expense, after taxes7 736,642 718,884 659,889 561,440 548,681 521,212
(Gain) loss on marketable securities 900 1,200 700 400 (1,800) (4,900)
Investment income, before taxes 900 1,200 700 400 (1,800) (4,900)
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income8 (189) (252) (147) (84) 378 1,029
Investment income, after taxes9 711 948 553 316 (1,422) (3,871)
Net income (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interest 300 1,400 200 1,800 1,000 (3,600)
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) 2,453,553 4,408,732 4,602,842 3,732,356 4,625,159 1,475,541

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-09-28), 10-K (reporting date: 2024-09-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-10-01), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-10-02), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-10-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-09-27).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in allowance for credit losses.

3 Addition of increase (decrease) in stored value card liability and deferred revenue.

4 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net earnings attributable to Starbucks.

5 2025 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= 10,536,700 × 3.70% = 389,858

6 2025 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense = Adjusted interest expense × Statutory income tax rate
= 932,458 × 21.00% = 195,816

7 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net earnings attributable to Starbucks.

8 2025 Calculation
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income = Investment income, before tax × Statutory income tax rate
= -900 × 21.00% = -189

9 Elimination of after taxes investment income.


The financial data reveals notable fluctuations in Starbucks Corp.'s profitability over the examined periods. Both net earnings attributable to the company and net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) demonstrate cyclical trends with periods of significant increases followed by declines.

Net Earnings Attributable to Starbucks
The net earnings show a strong increase from approximately 928 million US dollars in late 2020 to over 4.1 billion in early 2021. Following this peak, there is a decline to around 3.28 billion in late 2022, then a rebound to about 4.12 billion in early 2023. Subsequently, net earnings decrease again to approximately 3.76 billion and further decline to 1.86 billion by late 2025. This pattern suggests volatility in profitability with significant year-to-year variation.
Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
NOPAT trends closely parallel net earnings, starting at about 1.48 billion in 2020 and increasing sharply to over 4.62 billion in 2021. It then decreases to roughly 3.73 billion in 2022 before rising to nearly 4.60 billion in 2023. After this, NOPAT slightly declines to about 4.41 billion in 2024 and experiences a substantial drop to 2.45 billion by 2025. This indicates that operating efficiency and tax-related impacts also varied significantly over the time horizon, affecting profitability.

Overall, the data suggests that the company experienced pronounced growth in profitability around 2021 and 2023, but these gains were not consistently sustained into later periods. The declines toward 2025 could indicate emerging operational or market challenges impacting earnings and operating profit. This volatility warrants closer examination of underlying drivers such as cost management, revenue fluctuations, and external economic conditions influencing performance.

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Cash Operating Taxes

Starbucks Corp., cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Sep 28, 2025 Sep 29, 2024 Oct 1, 2023 Oct 2, 2022 Oct 3, 2021 Sep 27, 2020
Income tax expense 650,600 1,207,300 1,277,200 948,500 1,156,600 239,700
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit) (11,700) (13,600) (59,300) 23,100 (125,000) (28,500)
Add: Tax savings from interest expense 195,816 191,096 175,414 149,244 145,852 138,550
Less: Tax imposed on investment income (189) (252) (147) (84) 378 1,029
Cash operating taxes 858,305 1,412,248 1,512,061 1,074,728 1,427,074 405,721

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-09-28), 10-K (reporting date: 2024-09-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-10-01), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-10-02), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-10-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-09-27).


The analysis of the tax-related financial data displays variable trends in both income tax expense and cash operating taxes over the observed periods.

Income Tax Expense
The income tax expense demonstrates a fluctuating pattern with an initial value of 239,700 thousand US dollars, substantially rising to a peak of 1,157,600 thousand US dollars by the second period. This peak is followed by a decrease to 948,500 thousand US dollars, then an increase again to 1,277,200 thousand US dollars, maintaining a relatively high level in the next period at 1,207,300 thousand US dollars before declining sharply to 650,600 thousand US dollars in the latest period. Overall, the trend suggests volatility with a recent downward correction.
Cash Operating Taxes
Cash operating taxes show a broadly similar trend marked by significant increases and decreases. Starting at 405,721 thousand US dollars, this figure rises steeply to 1,427,074 thousand US dollars in the subsequent year, then declines to 1,074,728 thousand US dollars. Subsequently, there is a rise to a peak of 1,512,061 thousand US dollars, followed by a slight decrease to 1,412,248 thousand US dollars before dropping significantly to 858,305 thousand US dollars in the last recorded period. This pattern suggests notable fluctuations with peaks that generally coincide with the trends observed in income tax expenses.

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Invested Capital

Starbucks Corp., invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
Sep 28, 2025 Sep 29, 2024 Oct 1, 2023 Oct 2, 2022 Oct 3, 2021 Sep 27, 2020
Current portion of long-term debt 1,498,900 1,248,900 1,818,600 1,749,000 998,900 1,249,900
Long-term debt, excluding current portion 14,575,900 14,319,500 13,547,600 13,119,900 13,616,900 14,659,600
Operating lease liability1 10,536,700 10,234,700 9,200,100 8,760,900 8,989,300 8,910,500
Total reported debt & leases 26,611,500 25,803,100 24,566,300 23,629,800 23,605,100 24,820,000
Shareholders’ deficit (8,096,600) (7,448,900) (7,994,800) (8,706,600) (5,321,200) (7,805,100)
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2 (1,776,500) (1,745,600) (1,755,200) (1,681,100) (1,726,300) (1,631,800)
Allowance for credit losses3 24,000 21,200 23,800 27,200 25,600 27,100
Stored value card liability and deferred revenue4 7,613,200 7,744,800 7,802,000 7,921,600 8,059,100 8,055,000
Equity equivalents5 5,860,700 6,020,400 6,070,600 6,267,700 6,358,400 6,450,300
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax6 459,300 428,800 778,200 463,200 (147,200) 364,600
Noncontrolling interests 7,400 7,300 7,000 7,900 6,700 5,700
Adjusted shareholders’ deficit (1,769,200) (992,400) (1,139,000) (1,967,800) 896,700 (984,500)
Work in progress7 (334,300) (750,900) (607,500) (558,700) (374,100) (377,300)
Marketable securities8 (494,100) (533,000) (648,800) (643,600) (443,900) (487,300)
Invested capital 24,013,900 23,526,800 22,171,000 20,459,700 23,683,800 22,970,900

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-09-28), 10-K (reporting date: 2024-09-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-10-01), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-10-02), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-10-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-09-27).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.

4 Addition of stored value card liability and deferred revenue.

5 Addition of equity equivalents to shareholders’ deficit.

6 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.

7 Subtraction of work in progress.

8 Subtraction of marketable securities.


The financial data over the span of six years reveals several key trends concerning debt, shareholders' equity, and invested capital.

Total Reported Debt & Leases
The total reported debt and leases initially decreased from approximately 24.82 billion USD in 2020 to around 23.61 billion USD in 2021, indicating a reduction in debt levels. However, from 2021 onward, there was a consistent upward trend, reaching approximately 26.61 billion USD by 2025. This suggests a gradual increase in borrowing or lease obligations over this period, possibly reflecting increased leverage or financing activities.
Shareholders’ Deficit
The shareholders’ deficit showed considerable fluctuation across the years. Starting with a deficit of about -7.81 billion USD in 2020, it improved significantly to approximately -5.32 billion USD in 2021. This improvement could indicate a reduction in accumulated losses or liabilities exceeding equity. However, the deficit then worsened to about -8.71 billion USD in 2022, before improving slightly in the subsequent years but remaining negative through 2025. The persistent negative shareholders’ equity highlights ongoing challenges in equity capitalization or retained earnings, signaling potential financial stress or large accumulations of losses.
Invested Capital
Invested capital showed an initial increase from 22.97 billion USD in 2020 to 23.68 billion USD in 2021, followed by a notable decline to approximately 20.46 billion USD in 2022. After 2022, invested capital steadily increased year over year, reaching around 24.01 billion USD in 2025. This pattern may reflect variations in total capital deployed in the business, possibly influenced by asset acquisitions, disposals, or changes in working capital management. The recovery and growth in invested capital post-2022 suggest renewed investment or improved operational capacity.

Overall, the company displayed a fluctuating financial structure with increasing debt levels in recent years alongside a persistent negative shareholders’ deficit, which raises concerns regarding financial stability. The invested capital trend indicates some volatility but a general recovery trend after 2022, potentially aligned with strategic investments or operational enhancements.

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Cost of Capital

Starbucks Corp., cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 96,403,338 96,403,338 ÷ 121,908,238 = 0.79 0.79 × 17.91% = 14.16%
Debt3 14,968,200 14,968,200 ÷ 121,908,238 = 0.12 0.12 × 3.97% × (1 – 21.00%) = 0.39%
Operating lease liability4 10,536,700 10,536,700 ÷ 121,908,238 = 0.09 0.09 × 3.70% × (1 – 21.00%) = 0.25%
Total: 121,908,238 1.00 14.80%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-09-28).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 111,407,188 111,407,188 ÷ 136,288,588 = 0.82 0.82 × 17.91% = 14.64%
Debt3 14,646,700 14,646,700 ÷ 136,288,588 = 0.11 0.11 × 3.83% × (1 – 21.00%) = 0.33%
Operating lease liability4 10,234,700 10,234,700 ÷ 136,288,588 = 0.08 0.08 × 3.40% × (1 – 21.00%) = 0.20%
Total: 136,288,588 1.00 15.17%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-09-29).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 120,001,419 120,001,419 ÷ 142,661,219 = 0.84 0.84 × 17.91% = 15.06%
Debt3 13,459,700 13,459,700 ÷ 142,661,219 = 0.09 0.09 × 3.55% × (1 – 21.00%) = 0.26%
Operating lease liability4 9,200,100 9,200,100 ÷ 142,661,219 = 0.06 0.06 × 3.10% × (1 – 21.00%) = 0.16%
Total: 142,661,219 1.00 15.49%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-10-01).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 112,427,010 112,427,010 ÷ 134,414,910 = 0.84 0.84 × 17.91% = 14.98%
Debt3 13,227,000 13,227,000 ÷ 134,414,910 = 0.10 0.10 × 3.30% × (1 – 21.00%) = 0.26%
Operating lease liability4 8,760,900 8,760,900 ÷ 134,414,910 = 0.07 0.07 × 2.60% × (1 – 21.00%) = 0.13%
Total: 134,414,910 1.00 15.37%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-10-02).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 129,967,096 129,967,096 ÷ 154,970,496 = 0.84 0.84 × 17.91% = 15.02%
Debt3 16,014,100 16,014,100 ÷ 154,970,496 = 0.10 0.10 × 3.29% × (1 – 21.00%) = 0.27%
Operating lease liability4 8,989,300 8,989,300 ÷ 154,970,496 = 0.06 0.06 × 2.50% × (1 – 21.00%) = 0.11%
Total: 154,970,496 1.00 15.40%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-10-03).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 109,776,161 109,776,161 ÷ 136,624,161 = 0.80 0.80 × 17.91% = 14.39%
Debt3 17,937,500 17,937,500 ÷ 136,624,161 = 0.13 0.13 × 3.19% × (1 – 21.00%) = 0.33%
Operating lease liability4 8,910,500 8,910,500 ÷ 136,624,161 = 0.07 0.07 × 2.50% × (1 – 21.00%) = 0.13%
Total: 136,624,161 1.00 14.85%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-09-27).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »



Economic Spread Ratio

Starbucks Corp., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Sep 28, 2025 Sep 29, 2024 Oct 1, 2023 Oct 2, 2022 Oct 3, 2021 Sep 27, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1 (1,100,229) 840,836 1,169,484 587,965 977,490 (1,935,248)
Invested capital2 24,013,900 23,526,800 22,171,000 20,459,700 23,683,800 22,970,900
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3 -4.58% 3.57% 5.27% 2.87% 4.13% -8.42%
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
Airbnb Inc. 24.34% 24.16% 9.42% 11.05% -11.05%
Booking Holdings Inc. 24.27% 29.13% 14.67% 3.82% -13.63%
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. 9.23% 8.69% 7.11% 2.91% -1.58%
DoorDash, Inc. -19.10% -27.15% -39.59% -53.36% -39.87%
McDonald’s Corp. 9.25% 8.76% 8.84% 6.04% 8.45%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-09-28), 10-K (reporting date: 2024-09-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-10-01), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-10-02), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-10-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-09-27).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2025 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × -1,100,229 ÷ 24,013,900 = -4.58%

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


The financial performance regarding economic value addition exhibits significant volatility over the observed six-year period, characterized by an initial recovery, a mid-period peak, and a subsequent decline into negative territory.

Economic Profit Trends
A pattern of instability is evident, beginning with a substantial deficit of approximately 1.94 billion USD in 2020. A recovery occurred in 2021, with economic profit reaching a peak of 1.17 billion USD in 2023. However, a sharp reversal is noted in 2025, where economic profit fell to -1.10 billion USD, indicating that the return on capital failed to exceed the cost of capital by the end of the period.
Invested Capital Dynamics
Invested capital remained relatively stable, fluctuating between a low of 20.46 billion USD in 2022 and a high of 24.01 billion USD in 2025. A consistent upward trajectory in the capital base is observed from 2023 through 2025. The fact that the capital base reached its highest point in 2025 while economic profit turned negative suggests a decoupling between capital investment and value generation.
Economic Spread Ratio Analysis
The economic spread ratio closely mirrors the fluctuations in economic profit, oscillating from a low of -8.42% in 2020 to a peak of 5.27% in 2023. The positive spread maintained between 2021 and 2024 indicates a period of value creation where returns exceeded the cost of capital. The shift to a negative spread of -4.58% in 2025 represents a significant erosion of this value, signaling that the efficiency of the invested capital diminished substantially.

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Economic Profit Margin

Starbucks Corp., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Sep 28, 2025 Sep 29, 2024 Oct 1, 2023 Oct 2, 2022 Oct 3, 2021 Sep 27, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1 (1,100,229) 840,836 1,169,484 587,965 977,490 (1,935,248)
 
Net revenues 37,184,400 36,176,200 35,975,600 32,250,300 29,060,600 23,518,000
Add: Increase (decrease) in stored value card liability and deferred revenue (131,600) (57,200) (119,600) (137,500) 4,100 41,600
Adjusted net revenues 37,052,800 36,119,000 35,856,000 32,112,800 29,064,700 23,559,600
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2 -2.97% 2.33% 3.26% 1.83% 3.36% -8.21%
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
Airbnb Inc. 11.34% 13.12% 5.48% 8.78% -9.99%
Booking Holdings Inc. 11.64% 15.92% 7.84% 3.05% -18.66%
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. 5.64% 5.23% 4.31% 1.81% -1.15%
DoorDash, Inc. -15.66% -15.85% -24.01% -43.12% -25.93%
McDonald’s Corp. 18.44% 16.79% 17.34% 11.83% 17.37%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-09-28), 10-K (reporting date: 2024-09-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-10-01), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-10-02), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-10-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-09-27).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2025 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Adjusted net revenues
= 100 × -1,100,229 ÷ 37,052,800 = -2.97%

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.


The analysis of economic value creation reveals a significant divergence between revenue growth and the ability to generate consistent economic profit. While adjusted net revenues exhibited a continuous upward trajectory over the six-year period, economic profit remained volatile, ultimately returning to a deficit in the final year.

Revenue Growth Trends
Adjusted net revenues increased steadily from US$ 23.56 billion in 2020 to US$ 37.05 billion by 2025. This represents a sustained expansion of top-line performance throughout the entire analyzed timeframe.
Economic Profit Volatility
Economic profit experienced substantial fluctuations, starting with a deficit of US$ 1.94 billion in 2020 before recovering to positive territory in 2021. After reaching a peak of US$ 1.17 billion in 2023, the figure declined to US$ 840.84 million in 2024 and dropped sharply to a loss of US$ 1.10 billion in 2025. This indicates that the cost of capital exceeded the net operating profit in the most recent period.
Economic Profit Margin Performance
The economic profit margin mirrored the instability of absolute economic profit. From a low of -8.21% in 2020, the margin improved to a peak of 3.26% in 2023. This positive trend reversed in 2024 with a decrease to 2.33%, ending in a negative margin of -2.97% in 2025. The correlation between rising revenues and a declining economic profit margin in the final two years suggests a decrease in the efficiency of value creation relative to the capital employed.

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