Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ:SBUX)

The market (fair) value of the company exhibited variability over the analyzed periods. Beginning at approximately $136.14 billion in 2020, the value rose substantially to about $154.53 billion in 2021. However, this peak was followed by a decline to $133.78 billion in 2022, a slight recovery to $142.02 billion in 2023, and then a gradual decline again to $135.76 billion in 2024, ending at approximately $121.42 billion in 2025. Overall, the market value peaked in 2021 and then demonstrated a downward trend toward 2025.

Invested capital showed relatively moderate changes over the years. Starting at around $22.97 billion in 2020, it increased slightly to $23.68 billion in 2021, then decreased to $20.46 billion in 2022. Subsequently, it rose again to $22.17 billion in 2023, followed by steady increases reaching approximately $24.01 billion by 2025. This indicates a general upward movement in the company’s capital base after a dip in 2022.

Market Value Added (MVA), reflecting the difference between market value and invested capital, follows a pattern similar to the market value. Its highest point was approximately $130.85 billion in 2021, then diminished to about $113.32 billion in 2022. While there was some recovery to $119.85 billion in 2023, the MVA decreased in subsequent years to reach around $97.41 billion in 2025. This suggests that the market’s valuation premium over invested capital has narrowed since 2021.

Key Observations:

The company’s market value saw its apex in 2021, followed by a consistent decline through 2025.

Invested capital experienced a dip in 2022 but generally increased toward 2025.

Market value added peaked in 2021 and declined subsequently, indicating reduced market-driven value beyond the invested capital.

The divergence in trends between market value and invested capital points to potential changes in market perception or external factors influencing company valuation in recent years.

The financial data reveals several notable trends regarding the company's market value added (MVA), invested capital, and MVA spread ratio over a six-year period.

Market Value Added (MVA)

The MVA demonstrates fluctuation across the years, reaching a peak in the year corresponding to October 3, 2021, at approximately US$130.8 billion. Subsequently, there is a gradual decline observed through the following years, descending to around US$97.4 billion by September 28, 2025. This indicates a diminishing market premium relative to the invested capital over the latter part of the timeline.

Invested Capital

Invested capital shows variability but remains within a narrower range compared to MVA. Initial values start around US$22.97 billion in September 2020, experiencing a decrease by October 2, 2022, to about US$20.46 billion. Thereafter, invested capital rises steadily, peaking at approximately US$24.01 billion by September 28, 2025. This suggests continued or increased investment in assets or projects during the last years covered.

MVA Spread Ratio

The MVA spread ratio follows the MVA trend in displaying a peak early in the period (October 3, 2021) at approximately 552.49%. After that, a consistent downward trajectory is seen, reaching 405.63% by September 28, 2025. This decline reflects a reduced efficiency or return on the invested capital from the perspective of market value creation.

Overall, the data indicates a period of strong market value growth culminating early in the observed timeline, followed by a marked decrease in market value added and spread ratio, despite the leveling and slight growth in invested capital towards the end. This pattern may reflect changing market conditions, investor sentiment, or operational factors affecting the company's ability to generate market value beyond its invested capital.

The analysis of the annual financial data reveals several significant trends over the observed periods.

Market Value Added (MVA)

The Market Value Added shows fluctuation during the timeline. It increased from approximately 113.2 billion in 2020 to a peak of about 130.8 billion in 2021, followed by a decrease with minor variations, eventually reaching a value near 97.4 billion in 2025. This indicates a loss in market value after 2021, suggesting challenges in maintaining growth in market capitalization at higher levels during later years.

Adjusted Net Revenues

Adjusted net revenues demonstrate a consistent upward trend throughout the period, rising steadily from approximately 23.6 billion in 2020 to around 37.1 billion in 2025. This consistent revenue growth reflects positively on the company's ability to increase its income base over the years, despite fluctuations seen in market valuation metrics.

MVA Margin

The MVA margin, expressed as a percentage, shows a clear declining trend from 480.36% in 2020 down to 262.89% in 2025. This decline indicates that the value created relative to the adjusted net revenues is decreasing. Despite growth in revenues, the diminishing margin suggests that the company is delivering less market value per unit of revenue over time, which could imply increasing costs, shrinking profitability ratios, or market perception challenges.

In summary, while the company is experiencing steady growth in adjusted net revenues, its market value added and the efficiency of value creation relative to revenues are both on a declining trajectory after an initial peak. This dichotomy highlights the importance of investigating underlying factors that could be influencing market valuation and profitability margins despite revenue growth.