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Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc

Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)


Present Value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)

Difficulty: Intermediate

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) is generally described as cash flows after direct costs and before any payments to capital suppliers.


Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Starbucks Corp., free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) forecast

US$ in thousands, except per share data

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Year Value FCFFt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at hidden
01 FCFF0 hidden
1 FCFF1 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) hidden
2 FCFF2 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) hidden
3 FCFF3 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) hidden
4 FCFF4 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) hidden
5 FCFF5 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) hidden
5 Terminal value (TV5) hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) ÷ (hiddenhidden) hidden
Intrinsic value of Starbucks Corp.’s capital hidden
Less: Long-term debt, including current portion (fair value) hidden
Intrinsic value of Starbucks Corp.’s common stock hidden
Intrinsic value of Starbucks Corp.’s common stock (per share) $hidden
Current share price $hidden

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2018-11-16).

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Starbucks Corp., cost of capital

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Value1 Weight Required rate of return2 Calculation
Equity (fair value) hidden hidden hidden
Long-term debt, including current portion (fair value) hidden hidden hidden = hidden × (1 – hidden)

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2018-11-16).

1 US$ in thousands

   Equity (fair value) = No. shares of common stock outstanding × Current share price
= hidden × $hidden = $hidden

   Long-term debt, including current portion (fair value). See Details »

2 Required rate of return on equity is estimated by using CAPM. See Details »

   Required rate of return on debt. See Details »

   Required rate of return on debt is after tax.

   Estimated (average) effective income tax rate
= (hidden + hidden + hidden + hidden + hidden + hidden) ÷ 6 = hidden

WACC = hidden


FCFF Growth Rate (g)

FCFF growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Starbucks Corp., PRAT model

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Average Sep 30, 2018 Oct 1, 2017 Oct 2, 2016 Sep 27, 2015 Sep 28, 2014 Sep 29, 2013
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Interest expense hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Net earnings attributable to Starbucks hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Effective income tax rate (EITR)1 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Interest expense, after tax2 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Add: Cash dividends declared hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Interest expense (after tax) and dividends hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
EBIT(1 – EITR)3 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Current portion of long-term debt hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Long-term debt, excluding current portion hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Shareholders’ equity hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Total capital hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Ratios
Retention rate (RR)4 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Return on invested capital (ROIC)5 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Averages
RR hidden
ROIC hidden
Growth rate of FCFF (g)6 hidden

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2018-11-16), 10-K (filing date: 2017-11-17), 10-K (filing date: 2016-11-18), 10-K (filing date: 2015-11-12), 10-K (filing date: 2014-11-14), 10-K (filing date: 2013-11-18).

2018 Calculations

2 Interest expense, after tax = Interest expense × (1 – EITR)
= hidden × (1 – hidden) = hidden

3 EBIT(1 – EITR) = Net earnings attributable to Starbucks + Interest expense, after tax
= hidden + hidden = hidden

4 RR = [EBIT(1 – EITR) – Interest expense (after tax) and dividends] ÷ EBIT(1 – EITR)
= [hiddenhidden] ÷ hidden = hidden

5 ROIC = 100 × EBIT(1 – EITR) ÷ Total capital
= 100 × hidden ÷ hidden = hidden

6 g = RR × ROIC
= hidden × hidden = hidden


FCFF growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Total capital, fair value0 × WACC – FCFF0) ÷ (Total capital, fair value0 + FCFF0)
= 100 × (hidden × hiddenhidden) ÷ (hidden + hidden) = hidden

where:
Total capital, fair value0 = current fair value of Starbucks Corp.’s debt and equity (US$ in thousands)
FCFF0 = last year Starbucks Corp.’s free cash flow to the firm (US$ in thousands)
WACC = weighted average cost of Starbucks Corp.’s capital


FCFF growth rate (g) forecast

Starbucks Corp., H-model

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Year Value gt
1 g1 hidden
2 g2 hidden
3 g3 hidden
4 g4 hidden
5 and thereafter g5 hidden

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= hidden + (hiddenhidden) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = hidden

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= hidden + (hiddenhidden) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = hidden

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= hidden + (hiddenhidden) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = hidden