# Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG)

## Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)

Intermediate level

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is generally described as cash flows available to the equity holder after payments to debt holders and after allowing for expenditures to maintain the company’s asset base.

### Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Booking Holdings Inc., free cash flow to equity (FCFE) forecast

US\$ in millions, except per share data

Year Value FCFEt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 13.30%
01 FCFE0 3,434
1 FCFE1 4,420  = 3,434 × (1 + 28.72%) 3,901
2 FCFE2 5,470  = 4,420 × (1 + 23.75%) 4,261
3 FCFE3 6,497  = 5,470 × (1 + 18.78%) 4,467
4 FCFE4 7,394  = 6,497 × (1 + 13.81%) 4,487
5 FCFE5 8,048  = 7,394 × (1 + 8.84%) 4,310
5 Terminal value (TV5) 196,214  = 8,048 × (1 + 8.84%) ÷ (13.30%8.84%) 105,073
Intrinsic value of Booking Holdings Inc.’s common stock 126,498

Intrinsic value of Booking Holdings Inc.’s common stock (per share) \$3,022.23
Current share price \$2,000.24

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2019-02-27).

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.

### Required Rate of Return (r)

 Assumptions Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF 2.14% Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM) 11.58% Systematic risk of Booking Holdings Inc.’s common stock βBKNG 1.18 Required rate of return on Booking Holdings Inc.’s common stock3 rBKNG 13.30%

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

3 rBKNG = RF + βBKNG [E(RM) – RF]
= 2.14% + 1.18 [11.58%2.14%]
= 13.30%

### FCFE Growth Rate (g)

#### FCFE growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Booking Holdings Inc., PRAT model

Average Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2015 Dec 31, 2014
Selected Financial Data (US\$ in millions)
Net income 3,998  2,341  2,135  2,551  2,422
Revenues 14,527  12,681  10,743  9,224  8,442
Total assets 22,687  25,451  19,839  17,421  14,941
Stockholders’ equity 8,785  11,261  9,820  8,795  8,567
Financial Ratios
Retention rate1 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Profit margin2 27.52% 18.46% 19.87% 27.66% 28.69%
Asset turnover3 0.64 0.50 0.54 0.53 0.57
Financial leverage4 2.58 2.26 2.02 1.98 1.74
Averages
Retention rate 1.00
Profit margin 24.44%
Asset turnover 0.55
Financial leverage 2.12

FCFE growth rate (g)5 28.72%

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2019-02-27), 10-K (filing date: 2018-02-27), 10-K (filing date: 2017-02-27), 10-K (filing date: 2016-02-17), 10-K (filing date: 2015-02-19).

2018 Calculations

1 Company does not pay dividends

2 Profit margin = 100 × Net income ÷ Revenues
= 100 × 3,998 ÷ 14,527 = 27.52%

3 Asset turnover = Revenues ÷ Total assets
= 14,527 ÷ 22,687 = 0.64

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Stockholders’ equity
= 22,687 ÷ 8,785 = 2.58

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= 1.00 × 24.44% × 0.55 × 2.12 = 28.72%

#### FCFE growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Equity market value0 × r – FCFE0) ÷ (Equity market value0 + FCFE0)
= 100 × (83,721 × 13.30%3,434) ÷ (83,721 + 3,434) = 8.84%

where:
Equity market value0 = current market value of Booking Holdings Inc.’s common stock (US\$ in millions)
FCFE0 = the last year Booking Holdings Inc.’s free cash flow to equity (US\$ in millions)
r = required rate of return on Booking Holdings Inc.’s common stock

#### FCFE growth rate (g) forecast

Booking Holdings Inc., H-model

Year Value gt
1 g1 28.72%
2 g2 23.75%
3 g3 18.78%
4 g4 13.81%
5 and thereafter g5 8.84%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 28.72% + (8.84%28.72%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 23.75%

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 28.72% + (8.84%28.72%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 18.78%

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 28.72% + (8.84%28.72%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 13.81%