Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 195.49% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of May 16, 2025 was $129.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 504.83% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of May 16, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PLTR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2022
End date: May 16, 2025
a = -0.5128
b = 0.0030
s = 0.2161
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0030) – 1
= 195.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2161) – 1
= 137.40%
November 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y529)
= Exp(a + b × X529 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 765 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5128 + 0.0030 × 765 + 2 × 0.2161)
= Exp(2.1903)
= $8.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y529)
= Exp(a + b × X529 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 765 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5128 + 0.0030 × 765 – 2 × 0.2161)
= Exp(1.3257)
= $3.76
May 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5128 + 0.0030 × 1,689 + 2 × 0.2161)
= Exp(4.9331)
= $138.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5128 + 0.0030 × 1,689 – 2 × 0.2161)
= Exp(4.0685)
= $58.47
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 195.49% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of May 16, 2025 was $129.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 17, 2024
End date: May 16, 2025
a = -3.4746
b = 0.0049
s = 0.1385
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0049) – 1
= 504.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1385) – 1
= 73.99%
April 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y891)
= Exp(a + b × X891 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,295 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.4746 + 0.0049 × 1,295 + 2 × 0.1385)
= Exp(3.1879)
= $24.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y891)
= Exp(a + b × X891 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,295 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.4746 + 0.0049 × 1,295 – 2 × 0.1385)
= Exp(2.6340)
= $13.93
May 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.4746 + 0.0049 × 1,689 + 2 × 0.1385)
= Exp(5.1306)
= $169.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.4746 + 0.0049 × 1,689 – 2 × 0.1385)
= Exp(4.5768)
= $97.20
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 504.83% per annum.
- PLTR price at the close of May 16, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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