Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.96% per annum.
- MRK price at the close of July 31, 2026 was $130.20 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.59 (0.45%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 95.84% per annum.
- MRK price at the close of July 31, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MRK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 24, 2025
End date: June 24, 2026
a = 4.6223
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0390
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0390) – 1
= 16.90%
December 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y147)
= Exp(a + b × X147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6223 + 0.0004 × 211 + 2 × 0.0390)
= Exp(4.7809)
= $119.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y147)
= Exp(a + b × X147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6223 + 0.0004 × 211 – 2 × 0.0390)
= Exp(4.6248)
= $101.98
June 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y270)
= Exp(a + b × X270 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 393 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6223 + 0.0004 × 393 + 2 × 0.0390)
= Exp(4.8504)
= $127.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y270)
= Exp(a + b × X270 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 393 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6223 + 0.0004 × 393 – 2 × 0.0390)
= Exp(4.6943)
= $109.32
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.96% per annum.
- MRK price at the close of July 31, 2026 was $130.20 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.59 (0.45%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 24, 2026
End date: July 31, 2026
a = 4.0792
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0244
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 95.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0244) – 1
= 10.26%
April 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 332 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0792 + 0.0018 × 332 + 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(4.7394)
= $114.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 332 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0792 + 0.0018 × 332 – 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(4.6417)
= $103.72
July 31, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y296)
= Exp(a + b × X296 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0792 + 0.0018 × 430 + 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(4.9199)
= $136.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y296)
= Exp(a + b × X296 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0792 + 0.0018 × 430 – 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(4.8222)
= $124.24
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 95.84% per annum.
- MRK price at the close of July 31, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.