Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.85% per annum.
- MRK price at the close of October 29, 2026 was $146.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.19% per annum.
- MRK price at the close of October 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MRK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 19, 2026
End date: October 29, 2026
a = 5.2453
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0189
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0189) – 1
= 7.86%
August 19, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 366 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2453 + -0.0006 × 366 + 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(5.0487)
= $155.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 366 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2453 + -0.0006 × 366 – 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(4.9730)
= $144.46
October 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2453 + -0.0006 × 437 + 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(5.0032)
= $148.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2453 + -0.0006 × 437 – 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(4.9275)
= $138.04
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.85% per annum.
- MRK price at the close of October 29, 2026 was $146.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 1, 2026
End date: October 29, 2026
a = 4.8077
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0190
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0190) – 1
= 7.90%
October 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 409 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8077 + 0.0004 × 409 + 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(5.0042)
= $149.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 409 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8077 + 0.0004 × 409 – 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(4.9281)
= $138.12
October 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8077 + 0.0004 × 437 + 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(5.0150)
= $150.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8077 + 0.0004 × 437 – 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(4.9390)
= $139.63
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.19% per annum.
- MRK price at the close of October 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.